Planning for Density in a Driverless World

Automobile-centered, low-density development was the defining feature of population growth in the United States for decades. This development pattern displaced wildlife, destroyed habitat, and contributed to a national loss of biodiversity. It also meant, eventually, that commutes and air quality worsened, a sense of local character was lost in many places, and the negative consequences of sprawl impacted an increasing percentage of the population. Those impacts led to something of a shift in the national attitude toward sprawl. More people than ever are fluent in concepts of “smart growth,” “new urbanism,” and “green building,” and with these tools and others, municipalities across the country are working to redevelop a central core, rethink failing transit systems, and promote pockets of density. Changing technology may disrupt this trend. Self-driving vehicles are expected to be widespread within the next several decades. Those vehicles will likely reduce congestion, air pollution, and deaths, and free up huge amounts of productive time in the car. These benefits may also eliminate much of the conventional motivation and rationale behind sprawl reduction. As the time-cost of driving falls, driverless cars have the potential to incentivize human development of land that, by virtue of its distance from settled metropolitan areas, had been previously untouched. From the broader ecological perspective, each human surge into undeveloped land results in habitat destruction and fragmentation, and additional loss of biological diversity. New automobile technology may therefore usher in better air quality, increased safety, and a significant threat to ecosystem health. Our urban and suburban environments have been molded for centuries to the needs of various forms of transportation. The same result appears likely to occur in response to autonomous vehicles, if proactive steps are not taken to address their likely impacts. Currently, little planning is being done to prepare for driverless technology. Actors at multiple levels, however, have tools at their disposal to help ensure that new technology does not come at the expense of the nation’s remaining natural habitats. This Article advocates for a shift in paradigm from policies that are merely anti-car to those that are pro-density, and provides suggestions for both cities and suburban areas for how harness the positive aspects of driverless cars while trying to stem the negative. Planning for density regardless of technology will help to ensure that, for the world of the future, there is actually a world

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 6: Impact assessment

Consequences that might occur if certain technological developments take place in intercity transportation are described. These consequences are broad ranging, and include economic, environmental, social, institutional, energy-related, and transportation service implications. The possible consequences are traced through direct (primary) impacts to indirect (secondary, tertiary, etc.) impacts. Chains of consequences are traced, reaching as far beyond the original transportation cause as is necessary to identify all impacts felt to be influenced significantly by the technological development considered

Long-term U.S transportation electricity use considering the effect of autonomous-vehicles: Estimates & policy observations

In this paper, we model three layers of transportation disruption – first electrification, then autonomy, and finally sharing and pooling – in order to project transportation electricity demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States to 2050. Using an expanded kaya identity framework, we model vehicle stock, energy intensity, and vehicle miles traveled, progressively considering the effects of each of these three disruptions. We find that electricity use from light duty vehicle transport will likely be in the 570–1140 TWh range, 13–26%, respectively, of total electricity demand in 2050. Depending on the pace at which the electric sector decarbonizes, this increase in electric demand could correspond to a decrease in LDV greenhouse gas emissions of up to 80%. In the near term, rapid and complete transport electrification with a carbon-free grid should remain the cornerstones of transport decarbonization policy. However, long-term policy should also aim to mitigate autonomous vehicles’ potential to increase driving mileage, urban and suburban sprawl, and traffic congestion while incentivizing potential energy efficiency improvements through both better system management and the lightweighting of an accident-free vehicle fleet

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 1: Summary report

Technical, economic, environmental, and sociopolitical issues associated with future intercity transportation system options were assured. Technology assessment was used as a tool to assist in the identification of basic research and technology development tasks that should be undertaken. The emphasis was on domestic passenger transportation, but interfaces with freight and international transportation were considered

Final report: Workshop on: Integrating electric mobility systems with the grid infrastructure

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: This document is a report on the workshop entitled “Integrating Electric Mobility Systems with the Grid Infrastructure” which was held at Boston University on November 6-7 with the sponsorship of the Sloan Foundation. Its objective was to bring together researchers and technical leaders from academia, industry, and government in order to set a short and longterm research agenda regarding the future of mobility and the ability of electric utilities to meet the needs of a highway transportation system powered primarily by electricity. The report is a summary of their insights based on workshop presentations and discussions. The list of participants and detailed Workshop program are provided in Appendices 1 and 2. Public and private decisions made in the coming decade will direct profound changes in the way people and goods are moved and the ability of clean energy sources – primarily delivered in the form of electricity – to power these new systems. Decisions need to be made quickly because of rapid advances in technology, and the growing recognition that meeting climate goals requires rapid and dramatic action. The blunt fact is, however, that the pace of innovation, and the range of business models that can be built around these innovations, has grown at a rate that has outstripped our ability to clearly understand the choices that must be made or estimate the consequences of these choices. The group of people assembled for this Workshop are uniquely qualified to understand the options that are opening both in the future of mobility and the ability of electric utilities to meet the needs of a highway transportation system powered primarily by electricity. They were asked both to explain what is known about the choices we face and to define the research issues most urgently needed to help public and private decision-makers choose wisely. This report is a summary of their insights based on workshop presentations and discussions. New communication and data analysis tools have profoundly changed the definition of what is technologically possible. Cell phones have put powerful computers, communication devices, and position locators into the pockets and purses of most Americans making it possible for Uber, Lyft and other Transportation Network Companies to deliver on-demand mobility services. But these technologies, as well as technologies for pricing access to congested roads, also open many other possibilities for shared mobility services – both public and private – that could cut costs and travel time by reducing congestion. Options would be greatly expanded if fully autonomous vehicles become available. These new business models would also affect options for charging electric vehicles. It is unclear, however, how to optimize charging (minimizing congestion on the electric grid) without increasing congestion on the roads or creating significant problems for the power system that supports such charging capacity. With so much in flux, many uncertainties cloud our vision of the future. The way new mobility services will reshape the number, length of trips, and the choice of electric vehicle charging systems and constraints on charging, and many other important behavioral issues are critical to this future but remain largely unknown. The challenge at hand is to define plausible future structures of electric grids and mobility systems, and anticipate the direct and indirect impacts of the changes involved. These insights can provide tools essential for effective private ... [TRUNCATED]Workshop funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Dawn of autonomous vehicles: review and challenges ahead

This paper reviews the state of the art on autonomous vehicles as of 2017, including their impact at socio-economic, energy, safety, congestion and land-use levels. This impact study focuses on the issues that are common denominators and are bound to arise independently of regional factors, such as (but not restricted to) change to vehicle ownership patterns and driver behaviour, opportunities for energy and emissions savings, potential for accident reduction and lower insurance costs, and requalification of urban areas previously assigned to parking. The challenges that lie ahead for carmakers, law and policy makers are also explored, with an emphasis on how these challenges affect the urban infrastructure and issues they create for municipal planners and decision makers. The paper concludes with strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis that integrates and relates all these aspects.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

What California Gains from Reducing Car Dependence

Cars provide an unparalleled level of mobility but have negative financial, public health, environmental, and social impacts. Reducing the need for driving in California would produce a range of household- and community-level benefits. Driving is associated with adverse health effects (e.g., obesity, high blood pressure, depression, injuries, fatalities), while commuting by walking or biking provides numerous physical and mental health benefits. A reduction in driving would also improve public health by decreasing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. It would save substantial sums of money:  households spend about $9,000/year or 16$500 million per year on highway maintenance. A less car-dependent society would also be more equitable for those with limited income or limited physical abilities who cannot drive, to the benefit not just of those individuals but the community as a whole. While it is not realistic in the foreseeable future for most Californians to live without their cars, it is possible to decrease car dependence. Doing so requires a shift away from a century-old prioritization of the goal of reducing vehicle delays over other important goals. Creating a less car-dependent world is not necessarily more costly to the public and can be achieved over time through changes in land use and transportation planning practices. Answers to many of the frequently asked questions about such efforts are provided.View the NCST Project Webpag