Simulation modelling: Educational development roles for learning technologists

Simulation modelling was in the mainstream of CAL development in the 1980s when the late David Squires introduced this author to the Dynamic Modelling System. Since those early days, it seems that simulation modelling has drifted into a learning technology backwater to become a member of Laurillard's underutilized, ‘adaptive and productive’ media. Referring to her Conversational Framework, Laurillard constructs a pedagogic case for modelling as a productive student activity but provides few references to current practice and available resources. This paper seeks to complement her account by highlighting the pioneering initiatives of the Computers in the Curriculum Project and more recent developments in systems modelling within geographic and business education. The latter include improvements to system dynamics modelling programs such as STELLA®, the publication of introductory textbooks, and the emergence of online resources. The paper indicates several ways in which modelling activities may be approached and identifies some educational development roles for learning technologists. The paper concludes by advocating simulation modelling as an exemplary use of learning technologies ‐ one that realizes their creative‐transformative potential

Improving the multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm for hydropower reservoir operations in the California Oroville-Thermalito complex

This study demonstrates the application of an improved Evolutionary optimization Algorithm (EA), titled Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method with Principal Component Analysis and Crowding Distance Operator (MOSPD), for the hydropower reservoir operation of the Oroville-Thermalito Complex (OTC) - a crucial head-water resource for the California State Water Project (SWP). In the OTC's water-hydropower joint management study, the nonlinearity of hydropower generation and the reservoir's water elevation-storage relationship are explicitly formulated by polynomial function in order to closely match realistic situations and reduce linearization approximation errors. Comparison among different curve-fitting methods is conducted to understand the impact of the simplification of reservoir topography. In the optimization algorithm development, techniques of crowding distance and principal component analysis are implemented to improve the diversity and convergence of the optimal solutions towards and along the Pareto optimal set in the objective space. A comparative evaluation among the new algorithm MOSPD, the original Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method (MOCOM), the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution method (MODE), the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), the Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing approach (MOSA), and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization scheme (MOPSO) is conducted using the benchmark functions. The results show that best the MOSPD algorithm demonstrated the best and most consistent performance when compared with other algorithms on the test problems. The newly developed algorithm (MOSPD) is further applied to the OTC reservoir releasing problem during the snow melting season in 1998 (wet year), 2000 (normal year) and 2001 (dry year), in which the more spreading and converged non-dominated solutions of MOSPD provide decision makers with better operational alternatives for effectively and efficiently managing the OTC reservoirs in response to the different climates, especially drought, which has become more and more severe and frequent in California

A bibliometric analysis of the Journal of Molecular Graphics and Modelling

This paper reviews the articles published in Volumes 2-24 of the Journal of Molecular Graphics and Modelling (formerly the Journal of Molecular Graphics), focusing on the changes that have occurred in the subject over the years, and on the most productive and most cited authors and institutions. The most cited papers are those describing systems or algorithms, but the proportion of these types of article is decreasing as more applications of molecular graphics and molecular modelling are reported

Modelling manure NPK flows in organic farming systems to minimise nitrate leaching, ammonia volatilization and nitrous oxide emissions (OF0197)

Manure is an important source of organic matter and nutrients in organic farming systems, principally nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). Careful management is required during storage, handling and land-spreading to (a) ensure the most efficient use of the nutrients in the farming system and (b) to limit emissions of nitrate (NO3), ammonia (NH3), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and P to the wider environment. With a likely increase in the organically farmed area, information is needed on best practices for manure management in organic systems to minimise the environmental impacts of these systems. The aim was that software would calculate NPK fluxes associated with each aspect of the livestock system, and provide options to explore the impact of management change at key stages in the manure management process. The end point was to be a working prototype model/decision support system (DSS), which we could be demonstrated to a group of organic farmers and used for discussion of the NPK flows in their systems. Most of the effort in this short-term project was spent on three aspects: 1. Developing databases and the underlying model calculations. 2. Developing the software for the prototype system. 3. Limited validation of the output. The two main challenges in the project were (a) allowing a quick and easy representation of the manure management system, which is often complex and (b) being able to represent complex interactions, simply but robustly. The Manure Model (MANMOD) DSS was developed to allow an iconographic-based model representation of individual farm manure management systems to be readily constructed from a library of system components using a 'drag and drop' operation. This allows the user to construct a diagram of connecting components or ‘nodes’ (e.g. manure source, housing system, storage system) which direct and limit the flow pathway of nutrients through the farming system. Each component or node represents a key stage of the system. Once the system has been constructed, pressing the calculation button calculates the following variates for each component of the system: output (i.e. the amounts of N, P and K that will be transferred from that component of the system to the next); balance (i.e. the amount residing in that component of the system); losses (gaseous and ‘leachate’). Workshops were held at the start and end of the project. The following observations were made as a result of this exercise: - The approach is a relatively quick and simple way of constructing manure management systems. However, it is still quite complex, given the complexity of many management systems. - It may be that it is a better tool for advisers so that they can use it for several clients and become more familiar with the tool, compared with a farmer who might use it as a one-off during planning. - Even at its simplest, some detailed information is required – and in units that the farmer may not be familiar with. For example, washdown volume for the hardstanding, amount of straw (kg/animal/month), etc. However, this is not really a reason for not pursuing this information if it will provide an improvement in management. - One value is the option to scenario test. However, this is reliant on the model being sufficiently refined to be able to fairly represent the changes in response to the system. The aim of the project was to produce a prototype system. We have done this, but because of the complexity of the systems that we are trying to represent, we recognise that much more detailed validation of the model is required before it can be disseminated. There are now several Defra-funded studies that could be used in the next phase of the work. (A more detailed summary is available at the start of the main report

FullSWOF_Paral: Comparison of two parallelization strategies (MPI and SKELGIS) on a software designed for hydrology applications

In this paper, we perform a comparison of two approaches for the parallelization of an existing, free software, FullSWOF 2D (http://www. univ-orleans.fr/mapmo/soft/FullSWOF/ that solves shallow water equations for applications in hydrology) based on a domain decomposition strategy. The first approach is based on the classical MPI library while the second approach uses Parallel Algorithmic Skeletons and more precisely a library named SkelGIS (Skeletons for Geographical Information Systems). The first results presented in this article show that the two approaches are similar in terms of performance and scalability. The two implementation strategies are however very different and we discuss the advantages of each one.Comment: 27 page

Decision support system for the long-term city metabolism planning problem

A Decision Support System (DSS) tool for the assessment of intervention strategies (Alternatives) in an Urban Water System (UWS) with an integral simulation model called “WaterMet²” is presented. The DSS permits the user to identify one or more optimal Alternatives over a fixed long-term planning horizon using performance metrics mapped to the TRUST sustainability criteria (Alegre et al., 2012). The DSS exposes lists of in-built intervention options and system performance metrics for the user to compose new Alternatives. The quantitative metrics are calculated by the WaterMet² model and further qualitative or user-defined metrics may be specified by the user or by external tools feeding into the DSS. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach is employed within the DSS to compare the defined Alternatives and to rank them with respect to a pre-specified weighting scheme for different Scenarios. Two rich, interactive Graphical User Interfaces, one desktop and one web-based, are employed to assist with guiding the end user through the stages of defining the problem, evaluating and ranking Alternatives. This mechanism provides a useful tool for decision makers to compare different strategies for the planning of UWS with respect to multiple Scenarios. The efficacy of the DSS is demonstrated on a northern European case study inspired by a real-life urban water system for a mixture of quantitative and qualitative criteria. The results demonstrate how the DSS, integrated with an UWS modelling approach, can be used to assist planners in meeting their long-term, strategic level sustainability objectives

Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario:consequences for marine protected area networks and management

The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool"