5,904 research outputs found
Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior
Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents' to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus 'keep their options open'. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations
Reduction of Markov Chains using a Value-of-Information-Based Approach
In this paper, we propose an approach to obtain reduced-order models of
Markov chains. Our approach is composed of two information-theoretic processes.
The first is a means of comparing pairs of stationary chains on different state
spaces, which is done via the negative Kullback-Leibler divergence defined on a
model joint space. Model reduction is achieved by solving a
value-of-information criterion with respect to this divergence. Optimizing the
criterion leads to a probabilistic partitioning of the states in the high-order
Markov chain. A single free parameter that emerges through the optimization
process dictates both the partition uncertainty and the number of state groups.
We provide a data-driven means of choosing the `optimal' value of this free
parameter, which sidesteps needing to a priori know the number of state groups
in an arbitrary chain.Comment: Submitted to Entrop
Probabilistic Constraint Logic Programming
This paper addresses two central problems for probabilistic processing
models: parameter estimation from incomplete data and efficient retrieval of
most probable analyses. These questions have been answered satisfactorily only
for probabilistic regular and context-free models. We address these problems
for a more expressive probabilistic constraint logic programming model. We
present a log-linear probability model for probabilistic constraint logic
programming. On top of this model we define an algorithm to estimate the
parameters and to select the properties of log-linear models from incomplete
data. This algorithm is an extension of the improved iterative scaling
algorithm of Della-Pietra, Della-Pietra, and Lafferty (1995). Our algorithm
applies to log-linear models in general and is accompanied with suitable
approximation methods when applied to large data spaces. Furthermore, we
present an approach for searching for most probable analyses of the
probabilistic constraint logic programming model. This method can be applied to
the ambiguity resolution problem in natural language processing applications.Comment: 35 pages, uses sfbart.cl
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