Entropy generation analysis of wildfire propagation

Entropy generation is commonly applied to describe the evolution of irreversible processes, such as heat transfer and turbulence. These are both dominating phenomena in fire propagation. In this paper, entropy generation analysis is applied to a grassland fire event, with the aim of finding possible links between entropy generation and propagation directions. The ultimate goal of such analysis consists in helping one to overcome possible limitations of the models usually applied to the prediction of wildfire propagation. These models are based on the application of the superimposition of the effects due to wind and slope, which has proven to fail in various cases. The analysis presented here shows that entropy generation allows a detailed analysis of the landscape propagation of a fire and can be thus applied to its quantitative descriptio

Wildfire Spread Prediction Using Attention Mechanisms In U-Net

An investigation into using attention mechanisms for better feature extraction in wildfire spread prediction models. This research examines the U-net architecture to achieve image segmentation, a process that partitions images by classifying pixels into one of two classes. The deep learning models explored in this research integrate modern deep learning architectures, and techniques used to optimize them. The models are trained on 12 distinct observational variables derived from the Google Earth Engine catalog. Evaluation is conducted with accuracy, Dice coefficient score, ROC-AUC, and F1-score. This research concludes that when augmenting U-net with attention mechanisms, the attention component improves feature suppression and recognition, improving overall performance. Furthermore, employing ensemble modeling reduces bias and variation, leading to more consistent and accurate predictions. When inferencing on wildfire propagation at 30-minute intervals, the architecture presented in this research achieved a ROC-AUC score of 86.2% and an accuracy of 82.1%

Machine Learning Methods and Synthetic Data Generation to Predict Large Wildfires

Wildfires are becoming more frequent in different parts of the globe, and the ability to predict when and where they will occur is a complex process. Identifying wildfire events with high probability of becoming a large wildfire is an important task for supporting initial attack planning. Different methods, including those that are physics-based, statistical, and based on machine learning (ML) are used in wildfire analysis. Among the whole, those based on machine learning are relatively novel. In addition, because the number of wildfires is much greater than the number of large wildfires, the dataset to be used in a ML model is imbalanced, resulting in overfitting or underfitting the results. In this manuscript, we propose to generate synthetic data from variables of interest together with ML models for the prediction of large wildfires. Specifically, five synthetic data generation methods have been evaluated, and their results are analyzed with four ML methods. The results yield an improvement in the prediction power when synthetic data are used, offering a new method to be taken into account in Decision Support Systems (DSS) when managing wildfires

Resilience Enhancement Strategies for Modern Power Systems

The frequency of extreme events (e.g., hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) and man-made attacks (cyber and physical attacks) has increased dramatically in recent years. These events have severely impacted power systems ranging from long outage times to major equipment (e.g., substations, transmission lines, and power plants) destructions. Also, the massive integration of information and communication technology to power systems has evolved the power systems into what is known as cyber-physical power systems (CPPSs). Although advanced technologies in the cyber layer improve the operation and control of power systems, they introduce additional vulnerabilities to power system performance. This has motivated studying power system resilience evaluation and enhancements methods. Power system resilience can be defined as ``The ability of a system to prepare for, absorb, adapt to, and recover from disruptive events''. Assessing resilience enhancement strategies requires further and deeper investigation because of several reasons. First, enhancing the operational and planning resilience is a mathematically involved problem accompanied with many challenges related to modeling and computation methods. The complexities of the problem increases in CPPSs due to the large number and diverse behavior of system components. Second, a few studies have given attention to the stochastic behavior of extreme events and their accompanied impacts on the system resilience level yielding less realistic modeling and higher resilience level. Also, the correlation between both cyber and physical layers within the context of resilience enhancement require leveraging sophisticated modeling approaches which is still under investigation. Besides, the role of distributed energy resources in planning-based and operational-based resilience enhancements require further investigation. This calls for developing enhancement strategies to improve resilience of power grids against extreme events. This dissertation is divided into four parts as follows. Part I: Proactive strategies: utilizing the available system assets to prepare the power system prior to the occurrence of an extreme event to maintain an acceptable resilience level during a severe event. Various system generation and transmission constraints as well as the spatiotemporal behavior of extreme events should be properly modeled for a feasible proactive enhancement plan. In this part, two proactive strategies are proposed against weather-related extreme events and cyber-induced failure events. First, a generation redispatch strategy is formulated to reduce the amount of load curtailments in transmission systems against hurricanes and wildfires. Also, a defensive islanding strategy is studied to isolate vulnerable system components to cyber failures in distribution systems. Part II: Corrective strategies: remedial actions during an extreme event for improved performance. The negative impacts of extreme weather events can be mitigated, reduced, or even eliminated through corrective strategies. However, the high stochastic nature of resilience-based problem induces further complexities in modeling and providing feasible solutions. In this part, reinforcement learning approaches are leveraged to develop a control-based environment for improved resilience. Three corrective strategies are studied including distribution network reconfiguration, allocating and sizing of distributed energy resources, and dispatching reactive shunt compensators. Part III: Restorative strategies: retain the power service to curtailed loads in a fast and efficient means after a diverse event. In this part, a resilience enhancement strategy is formulated based on dispatching distributed generators for minimal load curtailments and improved restorative behavior. Part IV: Uncertainty quantification: Impacts of uncertainties on modeling and solution accuracy. Though there exist several sources of stochasticity in power systems, this part focuses on random behavior of extreme weather events and the associated impacts on system component failures. First, an assessment framework is studied to evaluate the impacts of ice storms on transmission systems and an evaluation method is developed to quantify the hurricane uncertainties for improved resilience. Additionally, the role of unavailable renewable energy resources on improved system resilience during extreme hurricane events is studied. The methodologies and results provided in this dissertation can be useful for system operators, utilities, and regulators towards enhancing resilience of CPPSs against weather-related and cyber-related extreme events. The work presented in this dissertation also provides potential pathways to leverage existing system assets and resources integrated with recent advanced computational technologies to achieve resilient CPPSs

Front Propagation in Random Media

This PhD thesis deals with the problem of the propagation of fronts under random circumstances. A statistical model to represent the motion of fronts when are evolving in a media characterized by microscopical randomness is discussed and expanded, in order to cope with three distinct applications: wild-land fire simulation, turbulent premixed combustion, biofilm modeling. In the studied formalism, the position of the average front is computed by making use of a sharp-front evolution method, such as the level set method. The microscopical spread of particles which takes place around the average front is given by the probability density function linked to the underlying diffusive process, that is supposedly known in advance. The adopted statistical front propagation framework allowed a deeper understanding of any studied field of application. The application of this model introduced eventually parameters whose impact on the physical observables of the front spread have been studied with Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis tools. In particular, metamodels for the front propagation system have been constructed in a non intrusive way, by making use of generalized Polynomial Chaos expansions and Gaussian Processes.The Thesis received funding from Basque Government through the BERC 2014-2017 program. It was also funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO via the BCAM Severo Ochoa SEV-2013-0323 accreditation. The PhD is fundend by La Caixa Foundation through the PhD grant “La Caixa 2014”. Funding from “Programma Operativo Nazionale Ricerca e Innovazione” (PONRI 2014-2020) , “Innotavive PhDs with Industrial Characterization” is kindly acknowledged for a research visit at the department of Mathematics and Applications “Renato Caccioppoli” of University “Federico II” of Naples

Front propagation in random media.

244 p.This PhD thesis deals with the problem of the propagation of fronts under random circumstances. Astatistical model to represent the motion of fronts when are evolving in a media characterized bymicroscopical randomness is discussed and expanded, in order to cope with three distinctapplications: wild-land fire simulation, turbulent premixed combustion, biofilm modeling. In thestudied formalism, the position of the average front is computed by making use of a sharp-frontevolution method, such as the level set method. The microscopical spread of particles which takesplace around the average front is given by the probability density function linked to the underlyingdiffusive process, that is supposedly known in advance. The adopted statistical front propagationframework allowed a deeper understanding of any studied field of application. The application ofthis model introduced eventually parameters whose impact on the physical observables of the frontspread have been studied with Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis tools. Inparticular, metamodels for the front propagation system have been constructed in a non intrusiveway, by making use of generalized Polynomial Chaos expansions and Gaussian Processes.bcam:basque center for applied mathematic

Fingering instability in wildfire fronts

A two-dimensional model for the evolution of the fire line – the interface between burned and unburned regions of a wildfire – is formulated. The fire line normal velocity has three contributions: (i) a constant rate of spread representing convection and radiation effects; (ii) a curvature term that smooths the fire line; and (iii) a Stefan-like term in the direction of the oxygen gradient. While the first two effects are geometrical, (iii) is dynamical and requires the solution of the steady advection–diffusion equation for oxygen, with advection owing to a self-induced ‘fire wind’, modelled by the gradient of a harmonic potential field. The conformal invariance of this coupled pair of partial differential equations, which has the Péclet number Pe as its only parameter, is exploited to compute numerically the evolution of both radial and infinitely long periodic fire lines. A linear stability analysis shows that fire line instability is possible, dependent on the ratio of curvature to oxygen effects. Unstable fire lines develop finger-like protrusions into the unburned region; the geometry of these fingers is varied and depends on the relative magnitudes of (i)–(iii). It is argued that for radial fires, the fire wind strength scales with the fire's effective radius, meaning that Pe increases in time, so all fire lines eventually become unstable. For periodic fire lines, Pe remains constant, so fire line stability is possible. The results of this study provide a possible explanation for the formation of fire fingers observed in wildfires