Techno-Economic Assessment of the Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Enhanced geothermal systems distinguish themselves among other technologies that utilize renewable energy sources by their possibility of the partial sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2). Thus, CO2 in its supercritical form in such units may be considered as better working fluid for heat transfer than conventionally used water. The main goal of the study was to perform the techno-economic analysis of different configurations of supercritical carbon dioxide-enhanced geothermal systems (sCO2-EGSs). The energy performance as well as economic evaluation including heat and power generation, capital and operational expenditures, and levelized cost of electricity and heat were investigated based on the results of mathematical modeling and process simulations. The results indicated that sCO2 mass flow rates and injection temperature have a significant impact on energetic results and also cost estimation. In relation to financial assessment, the highest levelized cost of electricity was obtained for the indirect sCO2 cycle (219.5 EUR/MWh) mainly due to the lower electricity production (in comparison with systems using Organic Rankine Cycle) and high investment costs. Both energy and economic assessments in this study provide a systematic approach to compare the sCO2-EGS variants. Keywords: enhanced geothermal systems; CO2-EGS; supercritical carbon dioxide cycles; Organic Rankine Cycle; combined heat and power; geothermal energyTechno-Economic Assessment of the Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Geothermal SystemspublishedVersio

Overcoming challenges in the classification of deep geothermal potential

The geothermal community lacks a universal definition of deep geothermal systems. A minimum depth of 400 m is often assumed, with a further sub-classification into middle-deep geothermal systems for reservoirs found between 400 and 1000 m. Yet, the simplistic use of a depth cut-off is insufficient to uniquely determine the type of resource and its associated potential. Different definitions and criteria have been proposed in the past to frame deep geothermal systems. However, although they have valid assumptions, these frameworks lack systematic integration of correlated factors. To further complicate matters, new definitions such as hot dry rock (HDR), enhanced or engineered geothermal systems (EGSs) or deep heat mining have been introduced over the years. A clear and transparent approach is needed to estimate the potential of deep geothermal systems and be capable of distinguishing between resources of a different nature. In order to overcome the ambiguity associated with some past definitions such as EGS, this paper proposes the return to a more rigorous petrothermal versus hydrothermal classification. This would be superimposed with numerical criteria for the following: depth and temperature; predominance of conduction, convection or advection; formation type; rock properties; heat source type; requirement for formation stimulation and corresponding efficiency; requirement to provide the carrier fluid; well productivity (or injectivity); production (or circulation) flow rate; and heat recharge mode. Using the results from data mining of past and present deep geothermal projects worldwide, a classification of the same, according to the aforementioned criteria is proposed

Balancing reservoir creation and seismic hazard in enhanced geothermal systems

Fracture shear-dilatancy is an essential process for enhancing the permeability of deep geothermal reservoirs, and is usually accompanied by the radiation of seismic waves. However, the hazard and risk perspective of induced seismicity research typically focuses only on the question of how to reduce the occurrence of induced earthquakes. Here we present a quantitative analysis of seismic hazard as a function of the two key factors defining an enhanced geothermal system: The permeability enhancement, and the size of the stimulated reservoir. Our model has two coupled components: (1) a pressure diffusion model and (2) a stochastic seismicity model. Permeability is increased in the source area of each induced earthquake depending on the amount of slip, which is determined by the magnitude. We show that the few largest earthquakes (i.e. 5-10 events with M ≥ 1.5) contribute more than half of the total reservoir stimulation. The results further indicate that planning and controlling of reservoir engineering operations may be compromised by the considerable variability of maximum observed magnitude, reservoir size, the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and Shapiro's seismogenic index (i.e. a measure of seismic reactivity of a reservoir) that arises from the intrinsic stochastic nature of induced seismicity. We also find that injection volume has a large impact on both reservoir size and seismic hazard. Injection rate and injection scheme have a negligible effect. The impact of site-specific parameters on seismicity and reservoir properties is greater than that of the injected volume. In particular, conditions that lead to high b-values—possibly a low differential stress level—have a high impact on seismic hazard, but also reduce the efficiency of the stimulation in terms of permeability enhancement. Under such conditions, target reservoir permeability can still be achieved without reaching an unacceptable level of seismic hazard, if either the initial reservoir permeability is high or if several fractures are stimulated. The proposed methodology is a first step towards including induced seismic hazard analysis into the design of reservoir stimulation in a quantitative and robust manne

Fracturing and thermal extraction optimization methods in enhanced geothermal systems

Fracture networks, fluid flow and heat extraction within fractures constitute pivotal aspects of enhanced geothermal system advancement. Conventional hydraulic fracturing in dry hot rock reservoirs typically requires high breakdown pressure and only produces a single major fracture morphology. Thus, it is imperative to explore better fracturing methods and consider more reasonable coupling mechanisms to improve the prediction efficiency. Cyclic fracturing using liquid nitrogen instead of water can generate more complex fracture networks and improve the fracturing performance. The simulation of fluid flow and heat transfer processes in the fracture network is crucial for an enhanced geothermal system, which requires a more comprehensive coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical model for matching, especially the characterization of coupling mechanism between the chemical and mechanical field. Based on the results of field engineering, laboratory experiments and numerical simulation, the optimum engineering scheme can be obtained by a multi-objective optimization and decision-making method. Furthermore, combining it with the deep-learning-based proxy model to achieve dynamic optimization with time is a meaningful future research direction.Document Type: PerspectiveCited as: Yang, R., Wang, Y., Song, G., Shi, Y. Fracturing and thermal extraction optimization methods in enhanced geothermal systems. Advances in Geo-Energy Research, 2023, 9(2): 136-140. https://doi.org/10.46690/ager.2023.08.0

Post-injection normal closure of fractures as a mechanism for induced seismicity

Understanding the controlling mechanisms underlying injection-induced seismicity is important for optimizing reservoir productivity and addressing seismicity-related concerns related to hydraulic stimulation in Enhanced Geothermal Systems. Hydraulic stimulation enhances permeability through elevated pressures, which cause normal deformations, and the shear slip of pre-existing fractures. Previous experiments indicate that fracture deformation in the normal direction reverses as the pressure decreases, e.g., at the end of stimulation. We hypothesize that this normal closure of fractures enhances pressure propagation away from the injection region and significantly increases the potential for post-injection seismicity. To test this hypothesis, hydraulic stimulation is modeled by numerically coupling fracture deformation, pressure diffusion and stress alterations for a synthetic geothermal reservoir in which the flow and mechanics are strongly affected by a complex three-dimensional fracture network. The role of the normal closure of fractures is verified by comparing simulations conducted with and without the normal closure effect

Evolution of Stress and Seismicity in Fractured Geothermal Reservoirs

The mitigation and control of induced seismicity has become a major challenge for the future of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). In this thesis I analyse the stimulation of well GPK2 of the EGS at Soultz-sous-Forêts. I analyze whether interaction of seismicity by static stress transfer plays a role and investigate stress changes from inversion of focal mechanism solutions. Second, the time-dependency of borehole breakout development is studied

Using estimated risk to develop stimulation strategies for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades, and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the generation of microseismicity through the shearing of pre-existing fractures or fault segments. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir through fluid injection against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. In this article we propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity of the previous 6 h with a (potentially site-specific) ground motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve; this is then convolved with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds, the injection is increased if the risk is below the amber level, decreased if the risk is between the amber and red levels, or stopped completely if the risk is above the red level. Based on simulations using a recently developed model of induced seismicity in geothermal systems, which is checked here using observations from the Basel EGS, in this article it is shown that the proposed procedure could lead to both acceptable levels of risk and increased permeability