Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Global Economic Growth on Birds in the Nations of the Three Poles

Economic and population growth as well as global macroeconomic policies are contributing to increasing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Climate change effects are more pronounced in cold regions such as the ‘Three Poles’ (the Arctic, the Antarctic and the Hindu Kush-Himalaya regions) than anywhere else. The Three Poles are rich in natural resources but the extraction of resources is degrading ecosystems and processes, and affecting species. In the Three Poles, many species depend on ice and snow habitats, but these species are competing with human activities for space and resources on a finite globe. Local and global pressures cause bird species populations to decline. In this study I investigated how bird populations are affected by economic growth and subsequent effects on the environment in the Three Poles regions. Data mining based on machine learning algorithms was used to perform the analyses. TreeNet (based on regression trees), included in the software Salford Predictive Modeler Builder® v.6.6 was used to develop the models. An additional Random Forests analysis (classification trees) was used to analyze the datasets. Two response variables were chosen based on bird distribution maps provided by BirdLife and the IUCN RedList categories, including those that have risk of extinction or are in the Least Concern category but with declining populations. Data from the WDI Data Catalog of The World Bank (World Development Indicators) were used as predictors. The results include a total of 24 models, classified by pole and type of country according to their direct (primary countries) or indirect (secondary countries) link to the Three Poles regions. A combind model was also run (primary and secondary countries). Models were evaluated according to the response curves and gains charts. Models confirm that global demand for, and consumtion of, resources is affecting the Three Poles. Food production, rural population, CO2 emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and agricultural land were the top ranked predictors to explain the number of birds classified as threatened or with populations decreasing. This finding supports that the global demand for resources such as oil, gas and fish that were exploited from the Three Poles, added to global warming from anthropogenic causes are significantly affecting bird species populations. However, further research has to be carried out in order to obtain sound information on what the best management and governance is for a sustainable outlook for the Three Poles and beyond.Acknowledgements -- Table of Content -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- List of Abbreviations -- Units and Symbols -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Objectives -- The Three Poles -- The Arctic -- The Antarctic -- The Himalayas -- The World and the Three Poles -- Methods -- Results -- Discussion -- References : Appendix 1A ; Appendix 1B ; Appendix 1C ; Appendix 2A ; Appendix 2B ; Appendix 3 ; Appendix 4 ; Appendix

Mitigating the impacts of air pollutants in Nepal and climate co-benefits: a scenario-based approach

Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) including black carbon (BC), methane (CH4), and tropospheric ozone (O3) are major climate forcers after carbon dioxide (CO2). These SLCPs also have detrimental impacts on human health and agriculture. Studies show that the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, which includes Nepal, has been experiencing the impacts of these pollutants in addition to greenhouse gases. In this study, we derive a national-level emission inventory for SLCPs, CO2, and air pollutants for Nepal and project their impacts under reference (REF) and mitigation policy (POL) scenarios. The impacts on human health, agriculture, and climate were then estimated by applying the following: (1) adjoint coefficients from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-chemical transport model that quantify the sensitivity of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface O3 concentrations in Nepal, and radiative forcing in four latitudinal bands, to emissions in 2 × 2.5° grids, and (2) concentration–response functions to estimate health and crop loss impacts in Nepal. With the mitigating measures undertaken, emission reductions of about 78% each of BC and CH4 and 87% of PM2.5 could be achieved in 2050 compared with the REF scenario. This would lead to an estimated avoidance of 29,000 lives lost and 1.7 million tonnes of crop loss while bringing an economic benefit in present value of 2.7 times more than the total cost incurred in its implementation during the whole period 2010–2050. The results provide useful policy insights and pathways for evidence-based decision-making in the design and effective implementation of SLCP mitigation measures in Nepal

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports. ; Constitutes the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, providing an authoritative overview of the region Assembles the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, practitioners, experts, and policymakers Combines the current state of knowledge of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in one volume Offers Open Access to a set of practically oriented policy recommendation

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports. ; Constitutes the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, providing an authoritative overview of the region Assembles the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, practitioners, experts, and policymakers Combines the current state of knowledge of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in one volume Offers Open Access to a set of practically oriented policy recommendation

Human Health Impacts from Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Region

This activity report summarizes the main outcomes of the inter-regional workshop on the Human Health Impacts from Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Region (India 2005). The objectives of the workshop were: to inform government organizations, nongovernmental organizations and other relevant stakeholders about the impacts of climate change; to Identify specific human health risks linked to climate variability and change in the Himalayan mountain regions; to propose strategies for integrating health with relevant sectors; to achieve consensus on a draft framework for national action in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan mountain region

Human Health Impacts from Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Region

This activity report summarizes the main outcomes of the inter-regional workshop on the Human Health Impacts from Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Region (India 2005). The objectives of the workshop were: to inform government organizations, nongovernmental organizations and other relevant stakeholders about the impacts of climate change; to Identify specific human health risks linked to climate variability and change in the Himalayan mountain regions; to propose strategies for integrating health with relevant sectors; to achieve consensus on a draft framework for national action in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan mountain region

Meeting Future Energy Needs in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

As mentioned in earlier chapters, the HKH regions form the entirety of some countries, a major part of other countries, and a small percentage of yet others. Because of this, when we speak about meeting the energy needs of the HKH region we need to be clear that we are not necessarily talking about the countries that host the HKH, but the clearly delineated mountainous regions that form the HKH within these countries. It then immediately becomes clear that energy provisioning has to be done in a mountain context characterized by low densities of population, low incomes, dispersed populations, grossly underdeveloped markets, low capabilities, and poor economies of scale. In other words, the energy policies and strategies for the HKH region have to be specific to these mountain contexts

Current practice and recommendations for modelling global change impacts on water resource in the Himalayas

Global change is expected to have a strong impact in the Himalayan region. The climatic and orographic conditions result in unique modelling challenges and requirements. This paper critically appraises recent hydrological modelling applications in Himalayan river basins, focusing on their utility to analyse the impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes on water resource availability in the region. Results show that the latter are only represented by land use change. Distributed, process-based hydrological models coupled with temperature-index melt models are predominant. The choice of spatial discretisation is critical for model performance due to the strong influence of elevation on meteorological variables and snow/ice accumulation and melt. However, the sparsity and limited reliability of point weather data, and the biases and low resolution of gridded datasets, hinder the representation of the meteorological complexity. These data limitations often limit the selection of models and the quality of the outputs by forcing the exclusion of processes that are significant to the local hydrology. The absence of observations for water stores and fluxes other than river flows prevents multi-variable calibration and increases the risk of equifinality. The uncertainties arising from these limitations are amplified in climate change analyses and, thus, systematic assessment of uncertainty propagation is required. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future data collection and model applications that may enhance realism within models and advance the ability of global change impact assessments to inform adaptation planning in this globally important region

Impact of light-absorbing particles on snow albedo darkening and associated radiative forcing over high-mountain Asia: high-resolution WRF-Chem modeling and new satellite observations

Light-absorbing particles (LAPs), mainly dust and black carbon, can significantly impact snowmelt and regional water availability over high-mountain Asia (HMA). In this study, for the first time, online aerosol–snow interactions are enabled and a fully coupled chemistry Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) regional model is used to simulate LAP-induced radiative forcing on snow surfaces in HMA at relatively high spatial resolution (12&thinsp;km, WRF-HR) compared with previous studies. Simulated macro- and microphysical properties of the snowpack and LAP-induced snow darkening are evaluated against new spatially and temporally complete datasets of snow-covered area, grain size, and impurity-induced albedo reduction over HMA. A WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation with the same configuration as WRF-HR but a coarser spatial resolution (1∘, WRF-CR) is also used to illustrate the impact of spatial resolution on simulations of snow properties and aerosol distribution over HMA. Due to a more realistic representation of terrain slopes over HMA, the higher-resolution model (WRF-HR) shows significantly better performance in simulating snow area cover, duration of snow cover, snow albedo and snow grain size over HMA, as well as an evidently better atmospheric aerosol loading and mean LAP concentration in snow. However, the differences in albedo reduction from model and satellite retrievals is large during winter due to associated overestimation in simulated snow fraction. It is noteworthy that Himalayan snow cover has high magnitudes of LAP-induced snow albedo reduction (4&thinsp;%–8&thinsp;%) in pre-monsoon seasons (both from WRF-HR and satellite estimates), which induces a snow-mediated radiative forcing of ∼30–50&thinsp;W m−2. As a result, the Himalayas (specifically the western Himalayas) hold the most vulnerable glaciers and mountain snowpack to the LAP-induced snow darkening effect within HMA. In summary, coarse spatial resolution and absence of snow–aerosol interactions over the Himalayan cryosphere will result in significant underestimation of aerosol effects on snow melting and regional hydroclimate.</p