Development and Validation of a Rule-based Time Series Complexity Scoring Technique to Support Design of Adaptive Forecasting DSS

Evidence from forecasting research gives reason to believe that understanding time series complexity can enable design of adaptive forecasting decision support systems (FDSSs) to positively support forecasting behaviors and accuracy of outcomes. Yet, such FDSS design capabilities have not been formally explored because there exists no systematic approach to identifying series complexity. This study describes the development and validation of a rule-based complexity scoring technique (CST) that generates a complexity score for time series using 12 rules that rely on 14 features of series. The rule-based schema was developed on 74 series and validated on 52 holdback series using well-accepted forecasting methods as benchmarks. A supporting experimental validation was conducted with 14 participants who generated 336 structured judgmental forecasts for sets of series classified as simple or complex by the CST. Benchmark comparisons validated the CST by confirming, as hypothesized, that forecasting accuracy was lower for series scored by the technique as complex when compared to the accuracy of those scored as simple. The study concludes with a comprehensive framework for design of FDSS that can integrate the CST to adaptively support forecasters under varied conditions of series complexity. The framework is founded on the concepts of restrictiveness and guidance and offers specific recommendations on how these elements can be built in FDSS to support complexity

Understanding Behavioral Sources of Process Variation Following Enterprise System Deployment

This paper extends the current understanding of the time-sensitivity of intent and usage following large-scale IT implementation. Our study focuses on perceived system misfit with organizational processes in tandem with the availability of system circumvention opportunities. Case study comparisons and controlled experiments are used to support the theoretical unpacking of organizational and technical contingencies and their relationship to shifts in user intentions and variation in work-processing tactics over time. Findings suggest that managers and users may retain strong intentions to circumvent systems in the presence of perceived task-technology misfit. The perceived ease with which this circumvention is attainable factors significantly into the timeframe within which it is attempted, and subsequently impacts the onset of deviation from prescribed practice and anticipated dynamics

The interaction of lean and building information modeling in construction

Lean construction and Building Information Modeling are quite different initiatives, but both are having profound impacts on the construction industry. A rigorous analysis of the myriad specific interactions between them indicates that a synergy exists which, if properly understood in theoretical terms, can be exploited to improve construction processes beyond the degree to which it might be improved by application of either of these paradigms independently. Using a matrix that juxtaposes BIM functionalities with prescriptive lean construction principles, fifty-six interactions have been identified, all but four of which represent constructive interaction. Although evidence for the majority of these has been found, the matrix is not considered complete, but rather a framework for research to explore the degree of validity of the interactions. Construction executives, managers, designers and developers of IT systems for construction can also benefit from the framework as an aid to recognizing the potential synergies when planning their lean and BIM adoption strategies

Mechanism Choice

This chapter reviews the literature on the selection of regulatory policy instruments, from both normative and positive perspectives. It first reviews the mechanism design literature to identify normative objectives in selecting among the menu or toolbox of policy instruments. The chapter then discusses the public choice and positive political theory literatures and the variety of models developed to attempt to predict the actual selection of alternative policy instruments. It begins with simpler early models focusing on interest group politics and proceeds to more complicated models that incorporate both supply and demand for policy, the role of policy entrepreneurs, behavioral and cognitive choice, and public perceptions and mass politics. It compares these theories to empirical experience. The chapter examines literature in law, economics, political science, and related fields, and it draws examples from US, European, and international regulation. It concludes with suggestions for future research. Document is the author\u27s manuscrip

Predicting business/ICT alignment with AntMiner+.

In this paper we report on the results of a European survey on business/ICT alignment practices. The goal of this study is to come up with some practical guidelines for managers on how to strive for better alignment of ICT investments with business requirements. Based on Luftman's alignment framework we examine 18 ICT management practices belonging to 6 different competency clusters. We use AntMiner+, a rule induction technique, to create an alignment rule set. The results indicate that B/ICT alignment is a multidimensional goal which can only be obtained through focused investments covering different alignment aspects. The obtained rule set is an interesting mix of both formal engineering and social interaction processes and structures. We discuss the implication of the alignment rules for practitioners.Alignment; Artificial ant systems; Business; Business/ICT alignment; Data; Data mining; Framework; Investment; Investments; Management; Management practices; Managers; Practical guidelines; Processes; Requirements; Rules; Structure; Studies; Systems;

SERVICE-PROCESS CONFIGURATIONS IN ELECTRONIC RETAILING: A TAXONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ELECTRONIC FOOD RETAILERS

Service-processes of electronic retailers are founded on electronic technologies that provide flexibility to sense and respond online to the dynamic and complex needs of customers. In this paper, we develop a taxonomy of service-processes in electronic retailing and demonstrate their linkage to customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. The taxonomy is grounded in a conceptual classification scheme that differentiates service-process stages on a continuum of flexibility. Using data on electronic service-processes collected from 255 electronic food retailers, we identified eight configurations for the taxonomy. We also collected and analyzed publicly reported customer satisfaction survey data that were available for 52 electronic food retailers in the study sample. The results of this analysis indicate positive and significant correlation of the ordering of the taxonomy configurations with (i) customer satisfaction with product information, product selection, web site aesthetics, web site navigation, customer support, and ease of return, and (ii) customer loyalty. Taken together, the results of our empirical analyses demonstrate that the taxonomy captures information and variety within and across the electronic service-process configurations in ways that can be related to customer satisfaction and customer loyalty.Marketing, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,