Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on the expected time between orders. A simple two-level MRP system where the product is manufactured for stock was then simulated. Stochastic demand for the final product was generated by two commonly occurring processes and with different variances. Various lot sizing rules were then used to determine the amount of product made and the amount of materials bought in. The results confirm earlier research that the behaviour of lot sizing rules is quite different when there is uncertainty in demand compared to the situation of perfect foresight of demand. The best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. In addition the choice of lot sizing rule between ‘good’ rules such as the EOQ turns out to be relatively less important in reducing unit cost compared to improving forecasting accuracy whatever the cost structure. The effect of demand uncertainty on unit cost for a given service level increases exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also shows how the value of improved forecasting can be analysed by examining the effects of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high forecast error variance, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs

Computing (R, S) policies with correlated demand

This paper considers the single-item single-stocking non-stationary stochastic lot-sizing problem under correlated demand. By operating under a nonstationary (R, S) policy, in which R denote the reorder period and S the associated order-up-to-level, we introduce a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model which can be easily implemented by using off-theshelf optimisation software. Our modelling strategy can tackle a wide range of time-seriesbased demand processes, such as autoregressive (AR), moving average(MA), autoregressive moving average(ARMA), and autoregressive with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity process(AR-ARCH). In an extensive computational study, we compare the performance of our model against the optimal policy obtained via stochastic dynamic programming. Our results demonstrate that the optimality gap of our approach averages 2.28% and that computational performance is good

An optimization framework for solving capacitated multi-level lot-sizing problems with backlogging

This paper proposes two new mixed integer programming models for capacitated multi-level lot-sizing problems with backlogging, whose linear programming relaxations provide good lower bounds on the optimal solution value. We show that both of these strong formulations yield the same lower bounds. In addition to these theoretical results, we propose a new, effective optimization framework that achieves high quality solutions in reasonable computational time. Computational results show that the proposed optimization framework is superior to other well-known approaches on several important performance dimensions

On the alignment of lot sizing decisions in a remanufacturing system in the presence of random yield

In the area of reverse logistics, remanufacturing has been proven to be a valu- able option for product recovery. In many industries, each step of the products’ recovery is carried out in lot sizes which leads to the assumption that for each of the different recovery steps some kind of fixed costs prevail. Furthermore, holding costs can be observed for all recovery states of the returned product. Although several authors study how the different lot sizes in a remanufacturing system shall be determined, they do not consider the specificity of the remanufacturing process itself. Thus, the disassembly operations which are always neglected in former analyses are included in this contribution as a specific recovery step. In addition, the assumption of deterministic yields (number of reworkable compo- nents obtained by disassembly) is extended in this work to study the system behavior in a stochastic environment. Three different heuristic approaches are presented for this environment that differ in their degree of sophistication. The least sophisticated method ignores yield randomness and uses the expected yield fraction as certainty equivalent. As a numerical experiment shows, this method already yields fairly good results in most of the investigated problem instances in comparison to the other heuristics which incorporate yield uncertainties. How- ever, there exist instances for which the performance loss between the least and the most sophisticated heuristic amounts to more than 6%.reverse logistics, remanufacturing, lot sizing, disassembly, random yield

A comparison of two lot sizing-sequencing heuristics for the process industry

Production Models;produktie