Decision support for build-to-order supply chain management through multiobjective optimization

This paper aims to identify the gaps in decision-making support based on multiobjective optimization for build-to-order supply chain management (BTOSCM). To this end, it reviews the literature available on modelling build-to-order supply chains (BTO-SC) with the focus on adopting multiobjective optimization (MOO) techniques as a decision support tool. The literature has been classified based on the nature of the decisions in different part of the supply chain, and the key decision areas across a typical BTO-SC are discussed in detail. Available software packages suitable for supporting decision making in BTO supply chains are also identified and their related solutions are outlined. The gap between the modelling and optimization techniques developed in the literature and the decision support needed in practice are highlighted and future research directions to better exploit the decision support capabilities of MOO are proposed

Decision support for build-to-order supply chain management through multiobjective optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in International Journal of Production Economics. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2010 Elsevier B.V.This paper aims to identify the gaps in decision-making support based on multiobjective optimization (MOO) for build-to-order supply chain management (BTO-SCM). To this end, it reviews the literature available on modelling build-to-order supply chains (BTO-SC) with the focus on adopting MOO techniques as a decision support tool. The literature has been classified based on the nature of the decisions in different part of the supply chain, and the key decision areas across a typical BTO-SC are discussed in detail. Available software packages suitable for supporting decision making in BTO supply chains are also identified and their related solutions are outlined. The gap between the modelling and optimization techniques developed in the literature and the decision support needed in practice are highlighted. Future research directions to better exploit the decision support capabilities of MOO are proposed. These include: reformulation of the extant optimization models with a MOO perspective, development of decision supports for interfaces not involving manufacturers, development of scenarios around service-based objectives, development of efficient solution tools, considering the interests of each supply chain party as a separate objective to account for fair treatment of their requirements, and applying the existing methodologies on real-life data sets.Brunel Research Initiative and Enterprise Fund (BRIEF

Strategic initiatives to increase the uptake of rooftop photovoltaic systems

This thesis has focused on the strategies that can be implemented by electricity utilities and private investors in increasing the penetration of rooftop photovoltaic systems (RPVs). Even though the proposals are general and applicable for any locality, the key studies of this research have been focused on the Australian electricity market. First, a detailed review and comparison of all Australian power distribution companies has been carried out in terms of the percentage of the supplied customers and the customer density per kilometre length of their power lines. Following that, the daily electricity supply and the electricity unit charges offered by the active electricity retail companies in the zones of each of these power distribution companies are reviewed and compared. Based on this information, the annual electricity bill of a customer supplied by different power distribution companies and retailers is calculated. Through this study, the national average annual electricity bill has been determined for Australia and the power distribution companies are categorised under four segments of very cheap, cheap, expensive, and very expensive companies. This study has highlighted some of the key challenges faced by power distribution companies in Australia in supplying power through a more localised renewable based generation. Installing an RPV by a household is a big decision, and there are many factors which need to be considered before this decision. It can be highly rewarding in some cases and for others, it may bring a loss in the investment. The main factors which need to be considered are the electricity consumption tariff, electricity consumption pattern, the location of the household and the tariffs offered by the utility in that area. In this thesis, economic incentives of installing a RPV and battery energy storage (BES) are discussed for a household in different states, served by various utilities. A comparison is made to find which states are more suitable in terms of gaining financial benefits from RPVs. A flat rate feed-in tariff is an incentive offered by many utilities to encourage their customers to invest in electricity generation from RPVs. Such a scheme is usually designed by financial techniques that mostly consider the initial capital cost and electricity spot price. However, such an incentive cannot help the utilities to address the technical challenges in networks with large renewable penetration. In this thesis, a dynamic feed-in tariff has been proposed and designed based on the value of electricity, hosting capacity, ambient temperature and time of day. This feed-in tariff will specifically support utilities that experience challenges in the electrification of remote areas or observe excessive stress on their networks at demand peak periods. The proposed feed-in tariff encourages the rural customers to install RPVs while discouraging the urban customers from installing RPVs without BES. Solar leasing is another opportunity to enhance the rapid uptake of RPVs. Even though solar leasing has attracted widespread acceptance in some countries, it has not been successful in being popular in some other places mainly due to lack of awareness of the model and economic viability in relation to outright buying a RPVs. One of the solar leasing models is roof rental in which a company leases the roof of residential premises for installing RPVs and selling the generated electricity to the utility. This thesis has explored an economically viable alternative for roof rental from the perspective of the engaged leasing company. To this end, an economic analysis has been performed to determine the net present value from the roof rental payments and versus different ratings of RPVs, desired interest rate and existing feed-in tariff. Furthermore, a BES can play an important role in realising maximum benefit from RPVs. However, the cost of a BES is comparatively high, and the BES of individual households may not be optimally utilised during a significant portion of the year as there may not be enough generation from RPVs during winter to charge the BES to its full capacity. Community solar on the other hand, if optimally designed, can give the opportunity to use a BES to its maximum capacity. Such systems can benefit many of the remote and rural communities, that are usually supplied by diesel generators, or long traditional distribution lines, which in addition to being expensive often don’t provide the reliability at desired level. These systems can also benefit most of the urban areas since the unmanaged penetration of RPVs has resulted in the undesired duck curve profile in the network. To this end, this thesis has proposed and validated the appropriate design criteria for community solar projects with an aim to improve the network duck curve profile, enable peak-shaving and increase the self-sufficiency of the community

The evolution and dynamics of stocks on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and their implications for equity investment management

[No subject] This thesis explores the dynamics of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange returns to understand how they impact stock prices. The introductory chapter renders a brief overview of financial markets in general and the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) in particular. The second chapter employs the fractal analysis technique, a method for estimating the Hurst exponent, to examine the JSE indices. The results suggest that the JSE is fractal in nature, implying a long-term predictability property. The results also indicate a logical system of variation of the Hurst exponent by firm size, market characteristics and sector grouping. The third chapter investigates the economic and political events that affect different market sectors and how they are implicated in the structural dynamics of the JSE. It provides some insights into the degree of sensitivity of different market sectors to positive and negative news. The findings demonstrate transient episodes of nonlinearity that can be attributed to economic events and the state of the market. Chapter 4 looks at the evolution of risk measurement and the distribution of returns on the JSE. There is evidence of fat tails and that the Student t-distribution is a better fit for the JSE returns than the Normal distribution. The Gaussian based Value-at-Risk model also proved to be an ineffective risk measurement tool under high market volatility. In Chapter 5 simulations are used to investigate how different agent interactions affect market dynamics. The results show that it is possible for traders to switch between trading strategies and this evolutionary switching of strategies is dependent on the state of the market. Chapter 6 shows the extent to which endogeneity affects price formation. To explore this relationship, the Poisson Hawkes model, which combines exogenous influences with self-excited dynamics, is employed. Evidence suggests that the level of endogeneity has been increasing rapidly over the past decade. This implies that there is an increasing influence of internal dynamics on price formation. The findings also demonstrate that market crashes are caused by endogenous dynamics and exogenous shocks merely act as catalysts. Chapter 7 presents the hybrid adaptive intelligent model for financial time series prediction. Given evidence of non-linearity, heterogeneous agents and the fractal nature of the JSE market, neural networks, fuzzy logic and fractal theory are combined, to obtain a hybrid adaptive intelligent model. The proposed system outperformed traditional models

Energy management based on a fuzzy controller of a photovoltaic/fuel cell/Li-ion battery/supercapacitor for unpredictable, fluctuating, high-dynamic three-phase AC load

Introduction. Nowadays, environmental pollution becomes an urgent issue that undoubtedly influences the health of humans and other creatures living in the world. The growth of hydrogen energy increased 97.3 % and was forecast to remain the world’s largest source of green energy. It can be seen that hydrogen is one of the essential elements in the energy structure as well as has great potential to be widely used in the 21st century. Purpose. This paper aims to propose an energy management strategy based a fuzzy logic control, which includes a hybrid renewable energy sources system dedicated to the power supply of a three-phase AC variable load (unpredictable high dynamic). Photovoltaic (PV), fuel cell (FC), Li-ion battery, and supercapacitor (SC) are the four sources that make up the renewable hybrid power system; all these sources are coupled in the DC-link bus. Unlike usual the SC was connected to the DC-link bus directly in this research work in order to ensure the dominant advantage which is a speedy response during load fast change and loads transient. Novelty. The power sources (PV/FC/Battery/SC) are coordinated based on their dynamics in order to keep the DC voltage around its reference. Among the main goals achieved by the fuzzy control strategy in this work are to reduce hydrogen consumption and increase battery lifetime. Methods. This is done by controlling the FC current and by state of charge (SOC) of the battery and SC. To verify the fuzzy control strategy, the simulation was carried out with the same system and compared with the management flowchart strategy. The results obtained confirmed that the hydrogen consumption decreased to 26.5 g and the SOC for the battery was around 62.2-65 and this proves the desired goal.Вступ. В даний час забруднення навколишнього середовища стає актуальною проблемою, яка, безперечно, впливає на здоров’я людини та інших істот, які живуть у світі. Зростання водневої енергетики збільшилося на 97,3 %, і прогнозувалося, що вона залишиться найбільшим у світі джерелом зеленої енергії. Видно, що водень є одним із найважливіших елементів у структурі енергетики, а також має великий потенціал для широкого використання у 21 столітті. Мета. У цій статті пропонується стратегія управління енергоспоживанням, заснована на нечіткому логічному управлінні, яка включає гібридну систему відновлюваних джерел енергії, призначену для живлення трифазного змінного навантаження змінного струму (непередбачувана висока динаміка). Фотоелектричні (PV), паливні елементи (FC), літій-іонні батареї та суперконденсатори (SC) – це чотири джерела, з яких складається відновлювана гібридна енергосистема; всі ці джерела підключені до шини постійного струму. На відміну від звичайних застосувань,ув цій дослідницькій роботі SC був підключений до шини постійного струму безпосередньо, щоб забезпечити домінуючу перевагу, що полягає в швидкому реагуванні при швидкій зміні навантаження та перехідних режимах навантаження. Новизна. Джерела живлення (PV/FC/батареї/SC) координуються на основі їхньої динаміки, щоб підтримувати напругу постійного струму біля свого еталонного значення. Серед основних цілей, досягнутих стратегією нечіткого управління у цій роботі, - зниження споживання водню та збільшення терміну служби батареї. Методи. Це робиться шляхом керування струмом FC та станом заряду (SOC) батареї та SC. Для перевірки стратегії нечіткого управління було проведено моделювання з тією самою системою та порівняння зі стратегією блок-схеми керування. Отримані результати підтвердили, що споживання водню знизилося до 26,5 г, а SOC для батареї становило близько 62,2-65, що доводить досягнення бажаної мети

Attributes of Big Data Analytics for Data-Driven Decision Making in Cyber-Physical Power Systems

Big data analytics is a virtually new term in power system terminology. This concept delves into the way a massive volume of data is acquired, processed, analyzed to extract insight from available data. In particular, big data analytics alludes to applications of artificial intelligence, machine learning techniques, data mining techniques, time-series forecasting methods. Decision-makers in power systems have been long plagued by incapability and weakness of classical methods in dealing with large-scale real practical cases due to the existence of thousands or millions of variables, being time-consuming, the requirement of a high computation burden, divergence of results, unjustifiable errors, and poor accuracy of the model. Big data analytics is an ongoing topic, which pinpoints how to extract insights from these large data sets. The extant article has enumerated the applications of big data analytics in future power systems through several layers from grid-scale to local-scale. Big data analytics has many applications in the areas of smart grid implementation, electricity markets, execution of collaborative operation schemes, enhancement of microgrid operation autonomy, management of electric vehicle operations in smart grids, active distribution network control, district hub system management, multi-agent energy systems, electricity theft detection, stability and security assessment by PMUs, and better exploitation of renewable energy sources. The employment of big data analytics entails some prerequisites, such as the proliferation of IoT-enabled devices, easily-accessible cloud space, blockchain, etc. This paper has comprehensively conducted an extensive review of the applications of big data analytics along with the prevailing challenges and solutions

Energy storage systems and grid code requirements for large-scale renewables integration in insular grids

This thesis addresses the topic of energy storage systems supporting increased penetration of renewables in insular systems. An overview of energy storage management, forecasting tools and demand side solutions is carried out, comparing the strategic utilization of storage and other competing strategies. Particular emphasis is given to energy storage systems on islands, as a new contribution to earlier studies, addressing their particular requirements, the most appropriate technologies and existing operating projects throughout the world. Several real-world case studies are presented and discussed in detail. Lead-acid battery design parameters are assessed for energy storage applications on insular grids, comparing different battery models. The wind curtailment mitigation effect by means of energy storage resources is also explored. Grid code requirements for large-scale integration of renewables are discussed in an island context, as another new contribution to earlier studies. The current trends on grid code formulation, towards an improved integration of distributed renewable resources in island systems, are addressed. Finally, modeling and control strategies with energy storage systems are addressed. An innovative energy management technique to be used in the day-ahead scheduling of insular systems with Vanadium Redox Flow battery is presented.Esta tese aborda a temática dos sistemas de armazenamento de energia visando o aumento da penetração de energias renováveis em sistemas insulares. Uma visão geral é apresentada acerca da gestão do armazenamento de energia, ferramentas de previsão e soluções do lado da procura de energia, comparando a utilização estratégica do armazenamento e outras estratégias concorrentes. É dada ênfase aos sistemas de armazenamento de energia em ilhas, como uma nova contribuição no estado da arte, abordando as suas necessidades específicas, as tecnologias mais adequadas e os projetos existentes e em funcionamento a nível mundial. Vários casos de estudos reais são apresentados e discutidos em detalhe. Parâmetros de projeto de baterias de chumbo-ácido são avaliados para aplicações de armazenamento de energia em redes insulares, comparando diferentes modelos de baterias. O efeito de redução do potencial de desperdício de energia do vento, recorrendo ao armazenamento de energia, também é perscrutado. As especificidades subjacentes aos códigos de rede para a integração em larga escala de energias renováveis são discutidas em contexto insular, sendo outra nova contribuição no estado da arte. As tendências atuais na elaboração de códigos de rede, no sentido de uma melhor integração da geração distribuída renovável em sistemas insulares, são abordadas. Finalmente, é estudada a modelação e as estratégias de controlo com sistemas de armazenamento de energia. Uma metodologia de gestão de energia inovadora é apresentada para a exploração de curto prazo de sistemas insulares com baterias de fluxo Vanádio Redox

A novel soft computing approach based on FIR to model and predict energy dynamic systems

Tesi en modalitat compendi de publicacionsWe are facing a global climate crisis that is demanding a change in the status quo of how we produce, distribute and consume energy. In the last decades, this is being redefined through Smart Grids(SG), an intelligent electrical network more observable, controllable, automated, fully integrated with energy services and the end-users. Most of the features and proposed SG scenarios are based on reliable, robust and fast energy predictions. For instance, for proper planning activities, such as generation, purchasing, maintenance and investment; for demand side management, like demand response programs; for energy trading, especially at local level, where productions and consumptions are more stochastics and dynamic; better forecasts also increase grid stability and thus supply security. A large variety of Artificial Intelligence(AI) techniques have been applied in the field of Short-term electricity Load Forecasting(SLF) at consumer level in low-voltage system, showing a better performance than classical techniques. Inaccuracy or failure in the SLF process may be translated not just in a non-optimal (low prediction accuracy) solution but also in frustration of end-users, especially in new services and functionalities that empower citizens. In this regard, some limitations have been observed in energy forecasting models based on AI such as robustness, reliability, accuracy and computation in the edge. This research proposes and develops a new version of Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning(FIR), called Flexible FIR, to model and predict the electricity consumption of an entity in the low-voltage grid with high uncertainties, and information missing, as well as the capacity to be deployed either in the cloud or locally in a new version of Smart Meters(SMs) based on Edge Computing(EC). FIR has been proved to be a powerful approach for model identification and system ’s prediction over dynamic and complex processes in different real world domains but not yet in the energy domain. Thus, the main goal of this thesis is to demonstrate that a new version of FIR, more robust, reliable and accurate can be a referent Soft Computing(SC) methodology to model and predict dynamic systems in the energy domain and that it is scalable to an EC integration. The core developments of Flexible FIR have been an algorithm that can cope with missing information in the input values, as well as learn from instances with Missing Values(MVs) in the knowledge-based, without compromising significantly the accuracy of the predictions. Moreover, Flexible FIR comes with new forecasting strategies that can cope better with loss of causality of a variable and dispersion of output classes than classical k nearest neighbours, making the FIR forecasting process more reliable and robust. Furthermore, Flexible FIR addresses another major challenge modelling with SC techniques, which is to select best model parameters. One of the most important parameters in FIR is the number k of nearest neighbours to be used in the forecast process. The challenge to select the optimal k, dynamically, is addressed through an algorithm, called KOS(K nearest neighbour Optimal Selection), which has been developed and tested also with real world data. It computes a membership aggregation function of all the neighbours with respect their belonging to the output classes.While with KOS the optimal parameter k is found online, with other approaches such as genetic algorithms or reinforcement learning is not, which increases the computational time.Ens trobem davant una crisis climàtica global que exigeix un canvi al status quo de la manera que produïm, distribuïm i consumim energia. En les darreres dècades, està sent redefinit gràcies a les xarxa elèctriques intel·ligents(SG: Smart Grid) amb millor observabilitat, control, automatització, integrades amb nous serveis energètics i usuaris finals. La majoria de les funcionalitats i escenaris de les SG es basen en prediccions de la càrrega elèctrica confiables, robustes i ràpides. Per les prediccions de càrregues elèctriques a curt termini(SLF: Short-term electricity Load Forecasting), a nivell de consumidors al baix voltatge, s’han aplicat una gran varietat de tècniques intel·ligència Artificial(IA) mostrant millor rendiment que tècniques estadístiques tradicionals. Un baix rendiment en SLF, pot traduir-se no només en una solució no-òptima (baixa precisió de predicció) sinó també en la frustració dels usuaris finals, especialment en nous serveis i funcionalitats que empoderarien als ciutadans. En el marc d’aquesta investigació es proposa i desenvolupa una nova versió de la metodologia del Raonament Inductiu Difús(FIR: Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning), anomenat Flexible FIR, capaç de modelar i predir el consum d’electricitat d’una entitat amb un grau d’incertesa molt elevat, inclús amb importants carències d’informació (missing values). A més, Flexible FIR té la capacitat de desplegar-se al núvol, així como localment, en el que podria ser una nova versió de Smart Meters (SM) basada en tecnologia d’Edge Computing (EC). FIR ja ha demostrat ser una metodologia molt potent per la generació de models i prediccions en processos dinàmics en diferents àmbits, però encara no en el de l’energia. Per tant, l’objectiu principal d’aquesta tesis és demostrar que una versió millorada de FIR, més robusta, fiable i precisa pot consolidar-se com una metodologia Soft Computing SC) de referencia per modelar i predir sistemes dinàmics en aplicacions per al sector de l’energia i que és escalable a una integració d’EC. Les principals millores de Flexible FIR han estat, en primer lloc, el desenvolupament i test d’un algorisme capaç de processar els valors d’entrada d’un model FIR tot i que continguin Missing Values (MV). Addicionalment, aquest algorisme també permet aprendre d’instàncies amb MV en la matriu de coneixement d’un model FIR, sense comprometre de manera significativa la precisió de les prediccions. En segon lloc, s’han desenvolupat i testat noves estratègies per a la fase de predicció, comportant-se millor que els clàssics k veïns més propers quan ens trobem amb pèrdua de causalitat d’una variable i dispersió en les classes de sortida, aconseguint un procés d’aprenentatge i predicció més confiable i robust. En tercer lloc, Flexible FIR aborda un repte molt comú en tècniques de SC: l’òptima parametrització del model. En FIR, un dels paràmetres més determinants és el número k de veïns més propers que s’utilitzaran durant la fase de predicció. La selecció del millor valor de k es planteja de manera dinàmica a través de l’algorisme KOS (K nearest neighbour Optimal Selection) que s’ha desenvolupat i testat també amb dades reals. Mentre que amb KOS el paràmetre òptim de k es calcula online, altres enfocaments mitjançant algoritmes genètics o aprenentatge per reforç el càlcul és offline, incrementant significativament el temps de resposta, sent a més a més difícil la implantació en escenaris d’EC. Aquestes millores fan que Flexible FIR es pugui adaptar molt bé en aplicacions d’EC. En aquest sentit es proposa el concepte d’un SM de segona generació basat en EC, que integra Flexible FIR com mòdul de predicció d’electricitat executant-se en el propi dispositiu i un agent EC amb capacitat per el trading d'energia produïda localment. Aquest agent executa un innovador mecanisme basat en incentius, anomenat NRG-X-Change que utilitza una nova moneda digital descentralitzada per l’intercanvi d’energia, que s’anomena NRGcoin.Estamos ante una crisis climática global que exige un cambio del status quo de la manera que producimos, distribuimos y consumimos energía. En las últimas décadas, este status quo está siendo redefinido debido a: la penetración de las energías renovables y la generación distribuida; nuevas tecnologías como baterías y paneles solares con altos rendimientos; y la forma en que se consume la energía, por ejemplo, a través de vehículos eléctricos o con la electrificación de los hogares. Estas palancas requieren una red eléctrica inteligente (SG: Smart Grid) con mayor observabilidad, control, automatización y que esté totalmente integrada con nuevos servicios energéticos, así como con sus usuarios finales. La mayoría de las funcionalidades y escenarios de las redes eléctricas inteligentes se basan en predicciones de la energía confiables, robustas y rápidas. Por ejemplo, para actividades de planificación como la generación, compra, mantenimiento e inversión; para la gestión de la demanda, como los programas de demand response; en el trading de electricidad, especialmente a nivel local, donde las producciones y los consumos son más estocásticos y dinámicos; una mejor predicción eléctrica también aumenta la estabilidad de la red y, por lo tanto, mejora la seguridad. Para las predicciones eléctricas a corto plazo (SLF: Short-term electricity Load Forecasting), a nivel de consumidores en el bajo voltaje, se han aplicado una gran variedad de técnicas de Inteligencia Artificial (IA) mostrando mejor rendimiento que técnicas estadísticas convencionales. Un bajo rendimiento en los modelos predictivos, puede traducirse no solamente en una solución no-óptima (baja precisión de predicción) sino también en frustración de los usuarios finales, especialmente en nuevos servicios y funcionalidades que empoderan a los ciudadanos. En este sentido, se han identificado limitaciones en modelos de predicción de energía basados en IA, como la robustez, fiabilidad, precisión i computación en el borde. En el marco de esta investigación se propone y desarrolla una nueva versión de la metodología de Razonamiento Inductivo Difuso (FIR: Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning), que hemos llamado Flexible FIR, capaz de modelar y predecir el consumo de electricidad de una entidad con altos grados de incertidumbre e incluso con importantes carencias de información (missing values). Además, Flexible FIR tiene la capacidad de desplegarse en la nube, así como localmente, en lo que podría ser una nueva versión de Smart Meters (SM) basada en tecnología de Edge Computing (EC). En el pasado, ya se ha demostrado que FIR es una metodología muy potente para la generación de modelos y predicciones en procesos dinámicos, sin embargo, todavía no ha sido demostrado en el campo de la energía. Por tanto, el objetivo principal de esta tesis es demostrar que una versión mejorada de FIR, más robusta, fiable y precisa puede consolidarse como metodología Soft Computing (SC) de referencia para modelar y predecir sistemas dinámicos en aplicaciones para el sector de la energía y que es escalable hacia una integración de EC. Las principales mejoras en Flexible FIR han sido, en primer lugar, el desarrollo y testeo de un algoritmo capaz de procesar los valores de entrada en un modelo FIR a pesar de que contengan Missing Values (MV). Además, dicho algoritmo también permite aprender de instancias con MV en la matriz de conocimiento de un modelo FIR, sin comprometer de manera significativa la precisión de las predicciones. En segundo lugar, se han desarrollado y testeado nuevas estrategias para la fase de predicción de un modelo FIR, comportándose mejor que los clásicos k vecinos más cercanos ante la pérdida de causalidad de una variable y dispersión de clases de salida, consiguiendo un proceso de aprendizaje y predicción más confiable y robusto. En tercer lugar, Flexible FIR aborda un desafío muy común en técnicas de SC: la óptima parametrización del modelo. En FIR, uno de los parámetros más determinantes es el número k de vecinos más cercanos que se utilizarán en la fase de predicción. La selección del mejor valor de k se plantea de manera dinámica a través del algoritmo KOS (K nearest neighbour Optimal Selection) que se ha desarrollado y probado también con datos reales. Dicho algoritmo calcula una función de membresía agregada, de todos los vecinos, con respecto a su pertenencia a las clases de salida. Mientras que con KOS el parámetro óptimo de k se calcula online, otros enfoques mediante algoritmos genéticos o aprendizaje por refuerzo, el cálculo es offline incrementando significativamente el tiempo de respuesta, siendo además difícil su implantación en escenarios de EC. Estas mejoras hacen que Flexible FIR se adapte muy bien en aplicaciones de EC, en las que la analítica de datos en streaming debe ser fiable, robusta y con un modelo suficientemente ligero para ser ejecutado en un IoT Gateway o dispositivos más pequeños. También, en escenarios con poca conectividad donde el uso de la computación en la nube es limitado y los parámetros del modelo se calculan localmente. Con estas premisas, en esta tesis, se propone el concepto de un SM de segunda generación basado en EC, que integra Flexible FIR como módulo de predicción de electricidad ejecutándose en el dispositivo y un agente EC con capacidad para el trading de energía producida localmente. Dicho agente ejecuta un novedoso mecanismo basado en incentivos, llamado NRG-X-Change que utiliza una nueva moneda digital descentralizada para el intercambio de energía, llamada NRGcoin.Postprint (published version

Upscaling energy control from building to districts: current limitations and future perspectives

Due to the complexity and increasing decentralisation of the energy infrastructure, as well as growing penetration of renewable generation and proliferation of energy prosumers, the way in which energy consumption in buildings is managed must change. Buildings need to be considered as active participants in a complex and wider district-level energy landscape. To achieve this, the authors argue the need for a new generation of energy control systems capable of adapting to near real-time environmental conditions while maximising the use of renewables and minimising energy demand within a district environment. This will be enabled by cloud-based demand-response strategies through advanced data analytics and optimisation, underpinned by semantic data models as demonstrated by the Computational Urban Sustainability Platform, CUSP, prototype presented in this paper. The growing popularity of time of use tariffs and smart, IoT connected devices offer opportunities for Energy Service Companies, ESCo’s, to play a significant role in this new energy landscape. They could provide energy management and cost savings for adaptable users, while meeting energy and CO2 reduction targets. The paper provides a critical review and agenda setting perspective for energy management in buildings and beyond