Integrating Learning from Examples into the Search for Diagnostic Policies

This paper studies the problem of learning diagnostic policies from training examples. A diagnostic policy is a complete description of the decision-making actions of a diagnostician (i.e., tests followed by a diagnostic decision) for all possible combinations of test results. An optimal diagnostic policy is one that minimizes the expected total cost, which is the sum of measurement costs and misdiagnosis costs. In most diagnostic settings, there is a tradeoff between these two kinds of costs. This paper formalizes diagnostic decision making as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The paper introduces a new family of systematic search algorithms based on the AO* algorithm to solve this MDP. To make AO* efficient, the paper describes an admissible heuristic that enables AO* to prune large parts of the search space. The paper also introduces several greedy algorithms including some improvements over previously-published methods. The paper then addresses the question of learning diagnostic policies from examples. When the probabilities of diseases and test results are computed from training data, there is a great danger of overfitting. To reduce overfitting, regularizers are integrated into the search algorithms. Finally, the paper compares the proposed methods on five benchmark diagnostic data sets. The studies show that in most cases the systematic search methods produce better diagnostic policies than the greedy methods. In addition, the studies show that for training sets of realistic size, the systematic search algorithms are practical on todays desktop computers

Multiple costs and their combination in cost sensitive learning

University of Technology, Sydney. Faculty of Information Technology.Cost sensitive learning is firstly defined as a procedure of minimizing the costs of classification errors. It has attracted much attention in the last few years. Being cost sensitive has the strength to handle the unbalance on the misclassification errors in some real world applications. Recently, researchers have considered how to deal with two or more costs in a model, such as involving both of the misclassification costs (the cost for misclassification errors) and attribute test costs (the cost incurs as obtaining the attribute’s value) [Tur95, GGR02, LYWZ04], Cost sensitive learning involving both attribute test costs and misclassification costs is called test cost sensitive learning that is more close to real industry focus, such as medical research and business decision. Current test cost sensitive learning aims to find an optimal diagnostic policy (simply, a policy) with minimal expected sum of the misclassification cost and test cost that specifies, for example which attribute test is performed in next step based on the outcomes of previous attribute tests, and when the algorithm stops (by choosing to classify). A diagnostic policy takes the form of a decision tree whose nodes specify tests and whose leaves specify classification actions. A challenging issue is the choice of a reasonable one from all possible policies. This dissertation argues for considering both of the test cost and misclassification cost, or even more costs together, but doubts if the current way, summing up the two costs, is the only right way. Detailed studies are needed to ensure the ways of combination make sense and be “correct”, dimensionally as well as semantically. This dissertation studies fundamental properties of costs involved and designs new models to combine the costs together. Some essential properties of attribute test cost are studied. In our learning problem definition, test cost is combined into misclassification cost by choosing and performing proper tests for a better decision. Why do you choose them and how about the ones that are not chosen? Very often, only part of all attribute values are enough for making a decision and rest attributes are left as “unknown”. The values are defined as ‘absent values' as they are left as unknown purposely for some rational reasons when the information obtained is considered as enough, or when patients have no money enough to perform further tests, and so on.. This is the first work to utilize the information hidden in those “absent values” in cost sensitive learning; and the conclusion is very positive, i.e. “Absent data” is useful for decision making. The “absent values” are usually treated as ‘missing values' when left as known for unexpected reasons. This thesis studies the difference between ‘absent’ and ‘missing’. An algorithm based on lazy decision tree is proposed to identify the absent data from missing data, and a novel strategy is proposed to help patch the “real” missing values. . Two novel test cost sensitive models are designed for different real work scenarios. The first model is a general test cost sensitive learning framework with multiple cost scales. Previous works assume that the test cost and the misclassification cost must be defined on the same cost scale, such as the dollar cost incurred in a medical diagnosis. And they aim to minimize the sum of the misclassification cost and the test cost. However, costs may be measured in very different units and we may meet difficulty in defining the multiple costs on the same cost scale. It is not only a technology issue, but also a social issue. In medical diagnosis, how much money should you assign for a misclassification cost? Sometimes, a misclassification may hurt a patient’s life. And from a social point of view, life is invaluable. To tackle this issue, a target-resource budget learning framework with multiple costs is proposed. With this framework, we present a test cost sensitive decision tree model with two kinds of cost scales. The task is to minimize one cost scale, called target cost, and keep the other one within specified budgets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the cost sensitive learning with multiple costs scales. The second model is based on the assumption that some attributes of an unlabeled example are known before being classified. A test cost sensitive lazy tree model is proposed to utilize the known information to reduce the overall cost. We also modify and apply this model to the batch-test problem: multiple tests are chosen and done in one shot, rather than in a sequential manner in the test-sensitive tree. It is significant in some diagnosis applications that require a decision to be made as soon as possible, such as emergency treatment. Extensive experiments are conducted for evaluating the proposed approaches, and demonstrate that the work in this dissertation is efficient and useful for many diagnostic tasks involving target cost minimization and resource utilization for obtaining missing information

Choosing Wavelet Methods, Filters, and Lengths for Functional Brain Network Construction

Wavelet methods are widely used to decompose fMRI, EEG, or MEG signals into time series representing neurophysiological activity in fixed frequency bands. Using these time series, one can estimate frequency-band specific functional connectivity between sensors or regions of interest, and thereby construct functional brain networks that can be examined from a graph theoretic perspective. Despite their common use, however, practical guidelines for the choice of wavelet method, filter, and length have remained largely undelineated. Here, we explicitly explore the effects of wavelet method (MODWT vs. DWT), wavelet filter (Daubechies Extremal Phase, Daubechies Least Asymmetric, and Coiflet families), and wavelet length (2 to 24) - each essential parameters in wavelet-based methods - on the estimated values of network diagnostics and in their sensitivity to alterations in psychiatric disease. We observe that the MODWT method produces less variable estimates than the DWT method. We also observe that the length of the wavelet filter chosen has a greater impact on the estimated values of network diagnostics than the type of wavelet chosen. Furthermore, wavelet length impacts the sensitivity of the method to detect differences between health and disease and tunes classification accuracy. Collectively, our results suggest that the choice of wavelet method and length significantly alters the reliability and sensitivity of these methods in estimating values of network diagnostics drawn from graph theory. They furthermore demonstrate the importance of reporting the choices utilized in neuroimaging studies and support the utility of exploring wavelet parameters to maximize classification accuracy in the development of biomarkers of psychiatric disease and neurological disorders.Comment: working pape