Dynamic Poisson Factorization

Models for recommender systems use latent factors to explain the preferences and behaviors of users with respect to a set of items (e.g., movies, books, academic papers). Typically, the latent factors are assumed to be static and, given these factors, the observed preferences and behaviors of users are assumed to be generated without order. These assumptions limit the explorative and predictive capabilities of such models, since users' interests and item popularity may evolve over time. To address this, we propose dPF, a dynamic matrix factorization model based on the recent Poisson factorization model for recommendations. dPF models the time evolving latent factors with a Kalman filter and the actions with Poisson distributions. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm to infer the latent factors. Finally, we demonstrate dPF on 10 years of user click data from arXiv.org, one of the largest repository of scientific papers and a formidable source of information about the behavior of scientists. Empirically we show performance improvement over both static and, more recently proposed, dynamic recommendation models. We also provide a thorough exploration of the inferred posteriors over the latent variables.Comment: RecSys 201

A Deep Embedding Model for Co-occurrence Learning

Co-occurrence Data is a common and important information source in many areas, such as the word co-occurrence in the sentences, friends co-occurrence in social networks and products co-occurrence in commercial transaction data, etc, which contains rich correlation and clustering information about the items. In this paper, we study co-occurrence data using a general energy-based probabilistic model, and we analyze three different categories of energy-based model, namely, the $L_1$, $L_2$ and $L_k$ models, which are able to capture different levels of dependency in the co-occurrence data. We also discuss how several typical existing models are related to these three types of energy models, including the Fully Visible Boltzmann Machine (FVBM) ($L_2$), Matrix Factorization ($L_2$), Log-BiLinear (LBL) models ($L_2$), and the Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) model ($L_k$). Then, we propose a Deep Embedding Model (DEM) (an $L_k$ model) from the energy model in a \emph{principled} manner. Furthermore, motivated by the observation that the partition function in the energy model is intractable and the fact that the major objective of modeling the co-occurrence data is to predict using the conditional probability, we apply the \emph{maximum pseudo-likelihood} method to learn DEM. In consequence, the developed model and its learning method naturally avoid the above difficulties and can be easily used to compute the conditional probability in prediction. Interestingly, our method is equivalent to learning a special structured deep neural network using back-propagation and a special sampling strategy, which makes it scalable on large-scale datasets. Finally, in the experiments, we show that the DEM can achieve comparable or better results than state-of-the-art methods on datasets across several application domains

A Survey on Bayesian Deep Learning

A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty. The past decade has seen major advances in many perception tasks such as visual object recognition and speech recognition using deep learning models. For higher-level inference, however, probabilistic graphical models with their Bayesian nature are still more powerful and flexible. In recent years, Bayesian deep learning has emerged as a unified probabilistic framework to tightly integrate deep learning and Bayesian models. In this general framework, the perception of text or images using deep learning can boost the performance of higher-level inference and in turn, the feedback from the inference process is able to enhance the perception of text or images. This survey provides a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian deep learning and reviews its recent applications on recommender systems, topic models, control, etc. Besides, we also discuss the relationship and differences between Bayesian deep learning and other related topics such as Bayesian treatment of neural networks.Comment: To appear in ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR) 202

Simultaneous Measurement Imputation and Outcome Prediction for Achilles Tendon Rupture Rehabilitation

Achilles Tendon Rupture (ATR) is one of the typical soft tissue injuries. Rehabilitation after such a musculoskeletal injury remains a prolonged process with a very variable outcome. Accurately predicting rehabilitation outcome is crucial for treatment decision support. However, it is challenging to train an automatic method for predicting the ATR rehabilitation outcome from treatment data, due to a massive amount of missing entries in the data recorded from ATR patients, as well as complex nonlinear relations between measurements and outcomes. In this work, we design an end-to-end probabilistic framework to impute missing data entries and predict rehabilitation outcomes simultaneously. We evaluate our model on a real-life ATR clinical cohort, comparing with various baselines. The proposed method demonstrates its clear superiority over traditional methods which typically perform imputation and prediction in two separate stages

A Collaborative Kalman Filter for Time-Evolving Dyadic Processes

We present the collaborative Kalman filter (CKF), a dynamic model for collaborative filtering and related factorization models. Using the matrix factorization approach to collaborative filtering, the CKF accounts for time evolution by modeling each low-dimensional latent embedding as a multidimensional Brownian motion. Each observation is a random variable whose distribution is parameterized by the dot product of the relevant Brownian motions at that moment in time. This is naturally interpreted as a Kalman filter with multiple interacting state space vectors. We also present a method for learning a dynamically evolving drift parameter for each location by modeling it as a geometric Brownian motion. We handle posterior intractability via a mean-field variational approximation, which also preserves tractability for downstream calculations in a manner similar to the Kalman filter. We evaluate the model on several large datasets, providing quantitative evaluation on the 10 million Movielens and 100 million Netflix datasets and qualitative evaluation on a set of 39 million stock returns divided across roughly 6,500 companies from the years 1962-2014.Comment: Appeared at 2014 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM