Minimizing Regret on Reflexive Banach Spaces and Nash Equilibria in Continuous Zero-Sum Games

Abstract We study a general adversarial online learning problem, in which we are given a decision set X in a reflexive Banach space X and a sequence of reward vectors in the dual space of X. At each iteration, we choose an action from X , based on the observed sequence of previous rewards. Our goal is to minimize regret. Using results from infinite dimensional convex analysis, we generalize the method of Dual Averaging to our setting and obtain upper bounds on the worst-case regret that generalize many previous results. Under the assumption of uniformly continuous rewards, we obtain explicit regret bounds in a setting where the decision set is the set of probability distributions on a compact metric space S. Importantly, we make no convexity assumptions on either S or the reward functions. We also prove a general lower bound on the worst-case regret for any online algorithm. We then apply these results to the problem of learning in repeated two-player zero-sum games on compact metric spaces. In doing so, we first prove that if both players play a Hannan-consistent strategy, then with probability 1 the empirical distributions of play weakly converge to the set of Nash equilibria of the game. We then show that, under mild assumptions, Dual Averaging on the (infinite-dimensional) space of probability distributions indeed achieves Hannan-consistency

Learning in games with continuous action spaces and unknown payoff functions

International audienc

Statistical Inference for Fisher Market Equilibrium

Statistical inference under market equilibrium effects has attracted increasing attention recently. In this paper we focus on the specific case of linear Fisher markets. They have been widely use in fair resource allocation of food/blood donations and budget management in large-scale Internet ad auctions. In resource allocation, it is crucial to quantify the variability of the resource received by the agents (such as blood banks and food banks) in addition to fairness and efficiency properties of the systems. For ad auction markets, it is important to establish statistical properties of the platform's revenues in addition to their expected values. To this end, we propose a statistical framework based on the concept of infinite-dimensional Fisher markets. In our framework, we observe a market formed by a finite number of items sampled from an underlying distribution (the "observed market") and aim to infer several important equilibrium quantities of the underlying long-run market. These equilibrium quantities include individual utilities, social welfare, and pacing multipliers. Through the lens of sample average approximation (SSA), we derive a collection of statistical results and show that the observed market provides useful statistical information of the long-run market. In other words, the equilibrium quantities of the observed market converge to the true ones of the long-run market with strong statistical guarantees. These include consistency, finite sample bounds, asymptotics, and confidence. As an extension, we discuss revenue inference in quasilinear Fisher markets

Statistical Inference and A/B Testing for First-Price Pacing Equilibria

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.Comment: - fix referenc

Volatility and correlation: Modeling and forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Several Realized Volatility and Correlation estimators have been introduced. The estimators which are defined based on high frequency data converge to the true estimators faster than their counterparts even under Market Microstructure Noise. Also a strategy for multivariate volatility estimation has been introduced. The strategy which is an incorporation of Support Vector Machine with Multiresolution Analysis based on wavelets affords higher performance of estimation than the single estimation

Autonomy and Intelligence in the Computing Continuum: Challenges, Enablers, and Future Directions for Orchestration

Future AI applications require performance, reliability and privacy that the existing, cloud-dependant system architectures cannot provide. In this article, we study orchestration in the device-edge-cloud continuum, and focus on AI for edge, that is, the AI methods used in resource orchestration. We claim that to support the constantly growing requirements of intelligent applications in the device-edge-cloud computing continuum, resource orchestration needs to embrace edge AI and emphasize local autonomy and intelligence. To justify the claim, we provide a general definition for continuum orchestration, and look at how current and emerging orchestration paradigms are suitable for the computing continuum. We describe certain major emerging research themes that may affect future orchestration, and provide an early vision of an orchestration paradigm that embraces those research themes. Finally, we survey current key edge AI methods and look at how they may contribute into fulfilling the vision of future continuum orchestration.Comment: 50 pages, 8 figures (Revised content in all sections, added figures and new section

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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