MP 2008-06

SNAP is a collaborative network that includes the University of Alaska, state, federal, and local agencies, NGO’s, and industry partners. The SNAP network provides timely access to scenarios of future conditions in Alaska for more effective planning by communities, industry, and land managers. We meet stakeholders’ requests for specific information by applying new or existing research results, integrating and analyzing data, and communicating information and assumptions to stakeholders. Our goal is to assist in informed decision-making

Summary Report for the Pacific Climate Scenarios and Impacts on Agriculture Meeting

October 25 and 26, 2012, ADAP hosted a meeting of 47 agricultural professionals from Alaska, Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, and Palau, and representatives from the Pacific Land Grant Alliance– a consortium of the Pacific Land Grant Schools. Day One of the workshop was devoted to technical presentations of ongoing climate-related extension or research projects. The diversity of the presentations highlighted the many ways that climate change can affect the Pacific region, from impacts on agriculture, plants, and insects, to water use, tourism, and the local economy. Day Two of the workshop was focused on change adaption, and was devoted to facilitated discussions of regional needs and areas for regional collaborative research/extension. During the discussions, we utilized a unique pictorial note taking method, to further spark ideas and innovative thought. This publication, Summary Report for the Pacific Climate Scenarios & Impacts on Agriculture Meeting, contains the meeting agenda, the final report of the ADAP Pilot study evaluating General Circulation Model (GCM) performance, meeting attendee list, notes from the facilitated discussions, and follow-up materials supplied by the newly formed, regional working group.ADAP Year 23 is funded the US Department of Agriculture, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Grant #2010- 38826-20733

PICES Press, Vol. 18, No. 2, Summer 2010

•The 2010 Inter-sessional Science Board Meeting: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-3) •2010 Symposium on “Effects of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries” (pp. 4-11) •2009 Mechanism of North Pacific Low Frequency Variability Workshop (pp. 12-14) •The Fourth China-Japan-Korea GLOBEC/IMBER Symposium (pp. 15-17, 23) •2010 Sendai Ocean Acidification Workshop (pp. 18-19, 31) •2010 Sendai Coupled Climate-to-Fish-to-Fishers Models Workshop (pp. 20-21) •2010 Sendai Salmon Workshop on Climate Change (pp. 22-23) •2010 Sendai Zooplankton Workshop (pp. 24-25, 28) •2010 Sendai Workshop on “Networking across Global Marine Hotspots” (pp. 26-28) •The Ocean, Salmon, Ecology and Forecasting in 2010 (pp. 29, 44) •The State of the Northeast Pacific during the Winter of 2009/2010 (pp. 30-31) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2009 (pp. 32-33) •The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 34-35, 39) •PICES Seafood Safety Project: Guatemala Training Program (pp. 36-39) •The Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystem and Climate Study (POBEX) (pp. 40-43) •PICES Calendar (p. 44

Sea-Ice System Services: A Framework to Help Identify and Meet Information Needs Relevant for Arctic Observing Networks

The need for data from an Arctic observing network to help stakeholders with planning and action is generally recognized. Two key research concerns arise: (1) potential contrasts between fundamental and applied science in the design of an observing system, and (2) development of best practices to ensure that stakeholder needs both inform and can be met from such an observing system. We propose a framework based on the concept of sea-ice system services (SISS) to meet these challenges and categorize the ways in which stakeholders perceive, measure, and use sea ice. Principal service categories are (1) climate regulator, marine hazard, and coastal buffer; (2) transportation and use as a platform; (3) cultural services obtained from the “icescape”; and (4) support of food webs and biological diversity. Our research focuses on cases of ice as platform and marine hazard in Arctic Alaska. We identify the information for each SISS category that users need to track, forecast, and adapt to changes. The resulting framework can address multiple information needs and priorities, integrate information over the relevant spatio-temporal scales, and provide an interface with local knowledge. To plan for an integrated Arctic Observing Network, we recommend a consortium-based approach with the academic community as an impartial intermediary that uses the SISS concept to identify common priorities across the range of sea-ice users.Il est généralement reconnu qu’il faudrait avoir accès à des données prélevées à partir d’un réseau d’observation de l’Arctique pour aider les parties prenantes à planifier et à prendre les mesures qui s’imposent. Il existe deux grandes sources de préoccupations à ce sujet : 1) les contrastes potentiels entre la science fondamentale et la science appliquée en matière de conception d’un système d’observation; et 2) la mise au point des meilleures pratiques pour s’assurer qu’un tel système d’observation informe les parties prenantes et réponde à leurs besoins. Nous proposons un cadre de référence fondé sur le concept des services d’un système de glace de mer (SISS) pour relever ces défis et catégoriser les manières dont les parties prenantes perçoivent, mesurent et utilisent la glace de mer. Les principales catégories de service sont les suivantes : 1) régulateur climatique, obstacle marin et tampon côtier; 2) moyen de transport et plateforme; (3) services culturels obtenus à partir du « paysage glaciaire »; et 4) soutien du réseau trophique et de la diversité biologique. Notre recherche porte plus précisément sur les cas où la glace sert de plateforme et présente un obstacle marin dans l’Arctique alaskien. Nous identifions l’information que les utilisateurs doivent repérer, prévoir et adapter aux changements dans le cas de chaque catégorie du SISS. Le cadre de référence qui en résulte peut répondre à de multiples besoins et priorités en matière d’information, intégrer l’information sur des échelles spatiotemporelles pertinentes et fournir une interface avec les connaissances locales. Afin de planifier en vue de l’établissement d’un réseau intégré d’observation de l’Arctique, nous recommandons la formation d’un genre de consortium composé de chercheurs, consortium servant d’intermédiaire impartial utilisant le concept SISS pour déterminer les priorités qui sont communes aux usagers de la glace de mer

Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

WA-RD 772.

Changes in extreme hydroclimate events in Interior Alaskan boreal forest watersheds

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2014The high latitude regions of the globe are responding to climate change at unprecedented magnitudes and rates. As the climate warms, extreme hydroclimate events are likely to change more than the mean events, and it is the extreme changes that present a risk to society, the economy and the environment of the north. The subarctic boreal forest is one of the largest ecosystems in the world and is greatly understudied with respect to hydroclimate extremes. Thus, defining a baseline for changing extremes is the first step towards planning and implementing adaptation measures to reduce risk and costs associated with the changing extremes. This thesis focuses on quantitative analysis of extreme events using historical data and future model projections of changing temperature, precipitation and streamflow in the Interior forested region of boreal Alaska. Historically, shifts in the climate have resulted in declining magnitudes of peak flow for snow dominated and glacial Interior Alaskan basins. However, changes are variable and dependent upon watershed topography, permafrost conditions, and glacial extents. Therefore, adjacent basins respond in considerably different ways to the same climate drivers. For example, peak streamflow events in the adjacent Salcha and Chena River basins had different responses to changes in climate. In the higher elevation Salcha basin, maximum streamflow increased as spring temperatures increased but in the lower elevation Chena, winter precipitation was a control on increases in maximum streamflow, while both were influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Analysis of hydrologic change must take this variability into account to understand extreme hydroclimate responses and correctly account for process shifts. To examine future changes in peak streamflow, the implementation and parameterization of hydrologic models to simulate hydroclimate extremes is required. In the northern latitudes of the world, there is a sparse observational station network that may be used for evaluation and correction of hydrologic models. This presents a limitation to science in these regions of the globe and has led to a paucity of research results and consequently, a lack of understanding of the hydrology of northern landscapes. Input of observations from remote sensing and the implementation of models that contain parameterizations specific to northern regions (i.e. permafrost) is one aim of this thesis. Remote sensing of snow cover extent, an important indicator of climate change in the north, was positively validated at snow telemetry sites across Interior Alaska. Input of the snow cover extent observations into a hydrologic model used by the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for streamflow flood forecasting improved discharge estimates for poorly observed basins, whereas the discharge estimates in basins with good quality river discharge observations improved little. Estimates of snow water equivalent were improved compared to station results and the adaptation of the model parameters indicated that the model is more robust, particularly during the snowmelt period when model simulations are error prone. Use of two independent hydrologic models and multiple global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios to simulate changes in future hydroclimate extremes indicated that large regime shifts are projected for snowmelt dominated basins of Interior Alaska. The Chena River basin, nearby Fairbanks, Alaska, is projected to be rainfall dominated by the 2080s, with smaller snowmelt peaks. Return intervals for flooding will increase by one-and-one half to double the flow volume magnitude compared to the historical return interval. Frequency of extreme streamflow events will increase five times the mean increase. These changes in extreme streamflow events necessitate further research on the implications for infrastructure, ecology and economy to constrain risk associated with the projected regime shift in boreal forested watersheds of Interior Alaska

Annotated bibliography on the economic effects of global climate change on fisheries

Fisheries, Bibliography, Climatic changes

Modeling changes in the length of the agricultural growing season in Interior Alaska

Food security is a growing global concern as population growth continues in a period of rapid climatic change. The amplification of climate change and dependence upon imported foods at high latitudes makes Alaskans especially vulnerable to both global and local changes. Although many climate impacts present challenges, rising air temperatures could provide economic opportunities for Alaskan agriculturalists by extending growing seasons. Future growing season length has previously been estimated, however these estimates did not explicitly account for the constraints of agricultural systems. This research explores the relationship between air temperature, soil temperature and growing season length in agricultural management systems in Interior Alaska to better understand how climate scenarios can be used to identify future opportunities. Air and soil temperature data were collected under four different crop systems and used in combination with historical observations to inform a model that projects usable growing degree-days in Interior Alaska to the end of the century. Increases of usable degree-days were projected to increase from 33-70% by 2100. The projected increases could increase success of currently marginally successful crops (e.g., canola, corn, and sunflowers). Such opportunities could lead to increased food security, but future planning will require culturally appropriate planning and institutional support.Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Quantifying the usable growing season for Interior Alaska agriculturalists: the effects of soil temperature, soil moisture, and air temperature on planting dates -- Chapter 3: Modeling the usable growing season for interior Alaska agriculturalists: a tool for investigating the future of high-latitude agriculture

Global and local contributors to the historical and projected regional climate change on the North Slope of Alaska

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2018This thesis includes four studies that explore and compare the impacts of four contributing factors resulting in regional climate change on the North Slope of Alaska based on a numerical simulation approach. These four contributing factors include global warming due to changes in radiative forcing, sea ice decline, earlier Arctic lake ice-off, and atmospheric circulation change over the Arctic. A set of dynamically downscaled regional climate products has been developed for the North Slope of Alaska over the period from 1950 up to 2100. A fine grid spacing (10 km) is employed to develop products that resolve detailed mesoscale features in the temperature and precipitation fields on the North Slope of Alaska. Processes resolved include the effects of topography on regional climate and extreme precipitation events. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario projects lower rates of precipitation and temperature increase than RCP8.5 compared to the historical product. The increases of precipitation and temperature trends in the RCP8.5 projection are higher in fall and winter compared to the historical product and the RCP4.5 projection. The impacts of sea ice decline are addressed by conducting sensitivity experiments employing both an atmospheric model and a permafrost model. The sea ice decline impacts are most pronounced in late fall and early winter. The near surface atmospheric warming in late spring and early summer due to sea ice decline are projected to be stronger in the 21st century. Such a warming effect also reduces the total cloud cover on the North Slope of Alaska in summer by destabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer. The sea ice decline warms the atmosphere and the permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska less strongly than the global warming does, while it primarily results in higher seasonal variability of the positive temperature trend that is bigger in late fall and early winter than in other seasons. The ongoing and projected earlier melt of the Arctic lake ice also contributes to regional climate change on the Northern coast of Alaska, though only on a local and seasonal scale. Heat and moisture released from the opened lake surface primarily propagate downwind of the lakes. The impacts of the earlier lake ice-off on both the atmosphere and the permafrost underneath are comparable to those of the sea ice decline in late spring and early summer, while they are roughly six times weaker than those of sea ice decline in late fall and early winter. The permafrost warming resulted from the earlier lake ice-off is speculated to be stronger with more snowfall expected in the 21st century, while the overall atmospheric warming of global origin is speculated to continue growing. Two major Arctic summer-time climatic variability patterns, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Arctic Dipole (AD), are evaluated in 12 global climate models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5). A combined metric ranking approach ranks the models by the Pattern Correlation Coefficients (PCCs) and explained variances calculated from the model-produced summer AO and AD over the historical period. Higher-ranked models more consistently project a positive trend of the summer AO index and a negative trend of summer AD index in their RCP8.5 projections. Such long-term trends of large-scale climate patterns will inhibit the increase in air temperature while favoring the increase in precipitation on the North Slope of Alaska. In summary, this thesis bridges the gaps by quantifying the relative importance of multiple contributing factors to the regional climate change on the North Slope of Alaska. Global warming is the leading contributing factor, while other factors primarily contribute to the spatial and temporal asymmetries of the regional climate change. The results of this thesis lead to a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the climatic impacts to the hydrological and ecological changes of the North Slope of Alaska that have been become more severe and more frequent. They, together with the developed downscaling data products, serve as the climatic background information in such fields of study