Design of Multi Agent Based Crowd Injury Model

A major concern of many government agencies is to predict and control the behavior of crowds in different situations. Many times such gatherings are legal, legitimate, and peaceful. But there are times when they can turn violent, run out of control, result in material damages and even casualties. It then becomes the duty of governments to bring them under control using a variety of techniques, including non-lethal and lethal weapons, if necessary. In order to aid decision makers on the course of action in crowd control, there are modeling and simulation tools that can provide guidelines by giving programmed rules to computer animated characters and to observe behaviors over time in appropriate scenarios. A crowd is a group of people attending a public gathering, with some joint purpose, such as protesting government or celebrating an event. In some countries these kinds of activities are the only way to express public\u27s displeasure with their governments. The governments\u27 reactions to such activities may or may not be tolerant. For these reasons, such situations must be eliminated by recognizing when and how they occur and then providing guidelines to mitigate them. Police or military forces use non-lethal weapons (NLWs), such as plastic bullets or clubs, to accomplish their job. In order to simulate the results of such actions in a computer, there is a need to determine the physical effects of NLWs over the individuals in the crowd. In this dissertation, a fuzzy logic based crowd injury model for determining the physical effects of NLWs is proposed. Fuzzy logic concepts can be applied to a problem by using linguistic rules, which are determined by problem domain experts. In this case, a group of police and military officers were consulted for a set of injury model rules and those rules were then included in the simulation platform. As a proof of concept, a prototype system was implemented using the Repast Simphony agent based simulation toolkit. Simulation results illustrated the effectiveness of the simulation framework

A Communication Choreography for Discrete Step MultiAgent Social Simulations

Considerable research has been done on agent communications, yet in discrete step social agent simulations there is no standardized work done to facilitate reactive agent-to-agent communication. We propose an agent-to-agent interaction framework that preserves the integrity of the communication process in an artificial society in a \u27time-stepped\u27 discrete event simulator. We introduce the modeling language called Agent Choreography Description Language (ACDL) in order to model the communication. It serves in describing the common and collaborative observable behaviour of multiple agents that need to interact in a peer to peer manner to achieve some goal. ACDL further adopts the parallel and interaction activities to model proper communication in an artificial society. The ACDL communication framework is implemented and tested in REPAST. It employs a communication manager to generate and execute ACDL specification according to agent\u27s communication needs

High-Performance Computing and ABMS for High-Resolution COVID-19 Spreading Simulation

This paper presents an approach for the modeling and the simulation of the spreading of COVID-19 based on agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). Our goal is not only to support large-scale simulations but also to increase the simulation resolution. Moreover, we do not assume an underlying network of contacts, and the person-to-person contacts responsible for the spreading are modeled as a function of the geographical distance among the individuals. In particular, we defined a commuting mechanism combining radiation-based and gravity-based models and we exploited the commuting properties at different resolution levels (municipalities and provinces). Finally, we exploited the high-performance computing (HPC) facilities to simulate millions of concurrent agents, each mapping the individual’s behavior. To do such simulations, we developed a spreading simulator and validated it through the simulation of the spreading in two of the most populated Italian regions: Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna. Our main achievement consists of the effective modeling of 10 million of concurrent agents, each one mapping an individual behavior with a high-resolution in terms of social contacts, mobility and contribution to the virus spreading. Moreover, we analyzed the forecasting ability of our framework to predict the number of infections being initialized with only a few days of real data. We validated our model with the statistical data coming from the serological analysis conducted in Lombardy, and our model makes a smaller error than other state of the art models with a final root mean squared error equal to 56,009 simulating the entire first pandemic wave in spring 2020. On the other hand, for the Emilia-Romagna region, we simulated the second pandemic wave during autumn 2020, and we reached a final RMSE equal to 10,730.11

Distributed Hybrid Simulation of the Internet of Things and Smart Territories

This paper deals with the use of hybrid simulation to build and compose heterogeneous simulation scenarios that can be proficiently exploited to model and represent the Internet of Things (IoT). Hybrid simulation is a methodology that combines multiple modalities of modeling/simulation. Complex scenarios are decomposed into simpler ones, each one being simulated through a specific simulation strategy. All these simulation building blocks are then synchronized and coordinated. This simulation methodology is an ideal one to represent IoT setups, which are usually very demanding, due to the heterogeneity of possible scenarios arising from the massive deployment of an enormous amount of sensors and devices. We present a use case concerned with the distributed simulation of smart territories, a novel view of decentralized geographical spaces that, thanks to the use of IoT, builds ICT services to manage resources in a way that is sustainable and not harmful to the environment. Three different simulation models are combined together, namely, an adaptive agent-based parallel and distributed simulator, an OMNeT++ based discrete event simulator and a script-language simulator based on MATLAB. Results from a performance analysis confirm the viability of using hybrid simulation to model complex IoT scenarios.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1605.0487

Evaluating Network Analysis and Agent Based Modeling for Investigating the Stability of Commercial Air Carrier Schedules

For a number of years, the United States Federal Government has been formulating the Next Generation Air Transportation System plans for National Airspace System improvement. These improvements attempt to address air transportation holistically, but often address individual improvements in one arena such as ground or in-flight equipment. In fact, air transportation system designers have had only limited success using traditional Operations Research and parametric modeling approaches in their analyses of innovative operations. They need a systemic methodology for modeling of safety-critical infrastructure that is comprehensive, objective, and sufficiently concrete, yet simple enough to be deployed with reasonable investment. The methodology must also be amenable to quantitative analysis so issues of system safety and stability can be rigorously addressed

Critical Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling: A Survey of U.S. and International Research

The Nation’s health, wealth, and security rely on the production and distribution of certain goods and services. The array of physical assets, processes, and organizations across which these goods and services move are called "critical infrastructures".1 This statement is as true in the U.S. as in any country in the world. Recent world events such as the 9-11 terrorist attacks, London bombings, and gulf coast hurricanes have highlighted the importance of stable electric, gas and oil, water, transportation, banking and finance, and control and communication infrastructure systems. Be it through direct connectivity, policies and procedures, or geospatial proximity, most critical infrastructure systems interact. These interactions often create complex relationships, dependencies, and interdependencies that cross infrastructure boundaries. The modeling and analysis of interdependencies between critical infrastructure elements is a relatively new and very important field of study. The U.S. Technical Support Working Group (TSWG) has sponsored this survey to identify and describe this current area of research including the current activities in this field being conducted both in the U.S. and internationally. The main objective of this study is to develop a single source reference of critical infrastructure interdependency modeling tools (CIIMT) that could be applied to allow users to objectively assess the capabilities of CIIMT. This information will provide guidance for directing research and development to address the gaps in development. The results will inform researchers of the TSWG Infrastructure Protection Subgroup of research and development efforts and allow a more focused approach to addressing the needs of CIIMT end-user needs. This report first presents the field of infrastructure interdependency analysis, describes the survey methodology, and presents the leading research efforts in both a cumulative table and through individual datasheets. Data was collected from open source material and when possible through direct contact with the individuals leading the research

MODELLING & SIMULATION HYBRID WARFARE Researches, Models and Tools for Hybrid Warfare and Population Simulation

The Hybrid Warfare phenomena, which is the subject of the current research, has been framed by the work of Professor Agostino Bruzzone (University of Genoa) and Professor Erdal Cayirci (University of Stavanger), that in June 2016 created in order to inquiry the subject a dedicated Exploratory Team, which was endorsed by NATO Modelling & Simulation Group (a panel of the NATO Science & Technology organization) and established with the participation as well of the author. The author brought his personal contribution within the ET43 by introducing meaningful insights coming from the lecture of \u201cFight by the minutes: Time and the Art of War (1994)\u201d, written by Lieutenant Colonel US Army (Rtd.) Robert Leonhard; in such work, Leonhard extensively developed the concept that \u201cTime\u201d, rather than geometry of the battlefield and/or firepower, is the critical factor to tackle in military operations and by extension in Hybrid Warfare. The critical reflection about the time - both in its quantitative and qualitative dimension - in a hybrid confrontation it is addressed and studied inside SIMCJOH, a software built around challenges that imposes literally to \u201cFight by the minutes\u201d, echoing the core concept expressed in the eponymous work. Hybrid Warfare \u2013 which, by definition and purpose, aims to keep the military commitment of both aggressor and defender at the lowest - can gain enormous profit by employing a wide variety of non-military tools, turning them into a weapon, as in the case of the phenomena of \u201cweaponization of mass migrations\u201d, as it is examined in the \u201cDies Irae\u201d simulation architecture. Currently, since migration it is a very sensitive and divisive issue among the public opinions of many European countries, cynically leveraging on a humanitarian emergency caused by an exogenous, inducted migration, could result in a high level of political and social destabilization, which indeed favours the concurrent actions carried on by other hybrid tools. Other kind of disruption however, are already available in the arsenal of Hybrid Warfare, such cyber threats, information campaigns lead by troll factories for the diffusion of fake/altered news, etc. From this perspective the author examines how the TREX (Threat network simulation for REactive eXperience) simulator is able to offer insights about a hybrid scenario characterized by an intense level of social disruption, brought by cyber-attacks and systemic faking of news. Furthermore, the rising discipline of \u201cStrategic Engineering\u201d, as envisaged by Professor Agostino Bruzzone, when matched with the operational requirements to fulfil in order to counter Hybrid Threats, it brings another innovative, as much as powerful tool, into the professional luggage of the military and the civilian employed in Defence and Homeland security sectors. Hybrid is not the New War. What is new is brought by globalization paired with the transition to the information age and rising geopolitical tensions, which have put new emphasis on hybrid hostilities that manifest themselves in a contemporary way. Hybrid Warfare is a deliberate choice of an aggressor. While militarily weak nations can resort to it in order to re-balance the odds, instead military strong nations appreciate its inherent effectiveness coupled with the denial of direct responsibility, thus circumventing the rules of the International Community (IC). In order to be successful, Hybrid Warfare should consist of a highly coordinated, sapient mix of diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces (even criminal elements), cyber disruption etc. all in order to achieve effects across the entire DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. However, the owner of the strategy, i.e. the aggressor, by keeping the threshold of impunity as high as possible and decreasing the willingness of the defender, can maintain his Hybrid Warfare at a diplomatically feasible level; so the model of the capacity, willingness and threshold, as proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone and Gunneriusson (2016), remains critical to comprehend Hybrid Warfare. Its dynamicity is able to capture the evanescent, blurring line between Hybrid Warfare and Conventional Warfare. In such contest time is the critical factor: this because it is hard to foreseen for the aggressor how long he can keep up with such strategy without risking either the retaliation from the International Community or the depletion of resources across its own DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. Similar discourse affects the defender: if he isn\u2019t able to cope with Hybrid Threats (i.e. taking no action), time works against him; if he is, he can start to develop counter narrative and address physical countermeasures. However, this can lead, in the medium long period, to an unforeseen (both for the attacker and the defender) escalation into a large, conventional, armed conflict. The performance of operations that required more than kinetic effects drove the development of DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models and in turn this drive the development of Human Social Culture Behavior Modelling (HCSB), which should stand at the core of the Hybrid Warfare modelling and simulation efforts. Multi Layers models are fundamental to evaluate Strategies and Support Decisions: currently there are favourable conditions to implement models of Hybrid Warfare, such as Dies Irae, SIMCJOH and TREX, in order to further develop tools and war-games for studying new tactics, execute collective training and to support decisions making and analysis planning. The proposed approach is based on the idea to create a mosaic made by HLA interoperable simulators able to be combined as tiles to cover an extensive part of the Hybrid Warfare, giving the users an interactive and intuitive environment based on the \u201cModelling interoperable Simulation and Serious Game\u201d (MS2G) approach. From this point of view, the impressive capabilities achieved by IA-CGF in human behavior modeling to support population simulation as well as their native HLA structure, suggests to adopt them as core engine in this application field. However, it necessary to highlight that, when modelling DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT domains, the researcher has to be aware of the bias introduced by the fact that especially Political and Social \u201cscience\u201d are accompanied and built around value judgement. From this perspective, the models proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone, Guinnarson (2016) and by Balaban & Mileniczek (2018) are indeed a courageous tentative to import, into the domain of particularly poorly understood phenomena (social, politics, and to a lesser degree economics - Hartley, 2016), the mathematical and statistical instruments and the methodologies employed by the pure, hard sciences. Nevertheless, just using the instruments and the methodology of the hard sciences it is not enough to obtain the objectivity, and is such aspect the representations of Hybrid Warfare mechanics could meet their limit: this is posed by the fact that they use, as input for the equations that represents Hybrid Warfare, not physical data observed during a scientific experiment, but rather observation of the reality that assumes implicitly and explicitly a value judgment, which could lead to a biased output. Such value judgement it is subjective, and not objective like the mathematical and physical sciences; when this is not well understood and managed by the academic and the researcher, it can introduce distortions - which are unacceptable for the purpose of the Science - which could be used as well to enforce a narrative mainstream that contains a so called \u201ctruth\u201d, which lies inside the boundary of politics rather than Science. Those observations around subjectivity of social sciences vs objectivity of pure sciences, being nothing new, suggest however the need to examine the problem under a new perspective, less philosophical and more leaned toward the practical application. The suggestion that the author want make here is that the Verification and Validation process, in particular the methodology used by Professor Bruzzone in doing V&V for SIMCJOH (2016) and the one described in the Modelling & Simulation User Risk Methodology (MURM) developed by Pandolfini, Youngblood et all (2018), could be applied to evaluate if there is a bias and the extent of the it, or at least making clear the value judgment adopted in developing the DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models. Such V&V research is however outside the scope of the present work, even though it is an offspring of it, and for such reason the author would like to make further inquiries on this particular subject in the future. Then, the theoretical discourse around Hybrid Warfare has been completed addressing the need to establish a new discipline, Strategic Engineering, very much necessary because of the current a political and economic environment which allocates diminishing resources to Defense and Homeland Security (at least in Europe). However, Strategic Engineering can successfully address its challenges when coupled with the understanding and the management of the fourth dimension of military and hybrid operations, Time. For the reasons above, and as elaborated by Leonhard and extensively discussed in the present work, addressing the concern posed by Time dimension is necessary for the success of any military or Hybrid confrontation. The SIMCJOH project, examined under the above perspective, proved that the simulator has the ability to address the fourth dimension of military and non-military confrontation. In operations, Time is the most critical factor during execution, and this was successfully transferred inside the simulator; as such, SIMCJOH can be viewed as a training tool and as well a dynamic generator of events for the MEL/MIL execution during any exercise. In conclusion, SIMCJOH Project successfully faces new challenging aspects, allowed to study and develop new simulation models in order to support decision makers, Commanders and their Staff. Finally, the question posed by Leonhard in terms of recognition of the importance of time management of military operations - nowadays Hybrid Conflict - has not been answered yet; however, the author believes that Modelling and Simulation tools and techniques can represent the safe \u201ctank\u201d where innovative and advanced scientific solutions can be tested, exploiting the advantage of doing it in a synthetic environment

Scheduling of a Cyber-Physical System Simulation

The work carried out in this Ph.D. thesis is part of a broader effort to automate industrial simulation systems. In the aeronautics industry, and more especially within Airbus, the historical application of simulation is pilot training. There are also more recent uses in the design of systems, as well as in the integration of these systems. These latter applications require a very high degree of representativeness, where historically the most important factor has been the pilot’s feeling. Systems are now divided into several subsystems that are designed, implemented and validated independently, in order to maintain their control despite the increase in their complexity, and the reduction in time-to-market. Airbus already has expertise in the simulation of these subsystems, as well as their integration into a simulation. This expertise is empirical; simulation specialists use the previous integrations schedulings and adapt it to a new integration. This is a process that can sometimes be time-consuming and can introduce errors. The current trends in the industry are towards flexible production methods, integration of logistics tools for tracking, use of simulation tools in production, as well as resources optimization. Products are increasingly iterations of older, improved products, and tests and simulations are increasingly integrated into their life cycles. Working empirically in an industry that requires flexibility is a constraint, and nowadays it is essential to facilitate the modification of simulations. The problem is, therefore, to set up methods and tools allowing a priori to generate representative simulation schedules. In order to solve this problem, we have developed a method to describe the elements of a simulation, as well as how this simulation can be executed, and functions to generate schedules. Subsequently, we implemented a tool to automate the scheduling search, based on heuristics. Finally, we tested and verified our method and tools in academic and industrial case studies