Incorporating Fine-grained Events in Stock Movement Prediction

Considering event structure information has proven helpful in text-based stock movement prediction. However, existing works mainly adopt the coarse-grained events, which loses the specific semantic information of diverse event types. In this work, we propose to incorporate the fine-grained events in stock movement prediction. Firstly, we propose a professional finance event dictionary built by domain experts and use it to extract fine-grained events automatically from finance news. Then we design a neural model to combine finance news with fine-grained event structure and stock trade data to predict the stock movement. Besides, in order to improve the generalizability of the proposed method, we design an advanced model that uses the extracted fine-grained events as the distant supervised label to train a multi-task framework of event extraction and stock prediction. The experimental results show that our method outperforms all the baselines and has good generalizability.Comment: Accepted by 2th ECONLP workshop in EMNLP201

A holistic auto-configurable ensemble machine learning strategy for financial trading

Financial markets forecasting represents a challenging task for a series of reasons, such as the irregularity, high fluctuation, noise of the involved data, and the peculiar high unpredictability of the financial domain. Moreover, literature does not offer a proper methodology to systematically identify intrinsic and hyper-parameters, input features, and base algorithms of a forecasting strategy in order to automatically adapt itself to the chosen market. To tackle these issues, this paper introduces a fully automated optimized ensemble approach, where an optimized feature selection process has been combined with an automatic ensemble machine learning strategy, created by a set of classifiers with intrinsic and hyper-parameters learned in each marked under consideration. A series of experiments performed on different real-world futures markets demonstrate the effectiveness of such an approach with regard to both to the Buy and Hold baseline strategy and to several canonical state-of-the-art solutions

Stock market prediction using machine learning classifiers and social media, news

Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors’ behavior. In this paper, we use algorithms on social media and financial news data to discover the impact of this data on stock market prediction accuracy for ten subsequent days. For improving performance and quality of predictions, feature selection and spam tweets reduction are performed on the data sets. Moreover, we perform experiments to find such stock markets that are difficult to predict and those that are more influenced by social media and financial news. We compare results of different algorithms to find a consistent classifier. Finally, for achieving maximum prediction accuracy, deep learning is used and some classifiers are ensembled. Our experimental results show that highest prediction accuracies of 80.53% and 75.16% are achieved using social media and financial news, respectively. We also show that New York and Red Hat stock markets are hard to predict, New York and IBM stocks are more influenced by social media, while London and Microsoft stocks by financial news. Random forest classifier is found to be consistent and highest accuracy of 83.22% is achieved by its ensemble

Time Series Prediction for Stock Price and Opioid Incident Location

abstract: Time series forecasting is the prediction of future data after analyzing the past data for temporal trends. This work investigates two fields of time series forecasting in the form of Stock Data Prediction and the Opioid Incident Prediction. In this thesis, the Stock Data Prediction Problem investigates methods which could predict the trends in the NYSE and NASDAQ stock markets for ten different companies, nine of which are part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). A novel deep learning model which uses a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) is used to predict future data and the results are compared with the existing regression techniques like Linear, Huber, and Ridge regression and neural network models such as Long-Short Term Memory (LSTMs) models. In this thesis, the Opioid Incident Prediction Problem investigates methods which could predict the location of future opioid overdose incidences using the past opioid overdose incidences data. A similar deep learning model is used to predict the location of the future overdose incidences given the two datasets of the past incidences (Connecticut and Cincinnati Opioid incidence datasets) and compared with the existing neural network models such as Convolution LSTMs, Attention-based Convolution LSTMs, and Encoder-Decoder frameworks. Experimental results on the above-mentioned datasets for both the problems show the superiority of the proposed architectures over the standard statistical models.Dissertation/ThesisMasters Thesis Computer Science 201

Text Mining for Big Data Analysis in Financial Sector: A Literature Review

Big data technologies have a strong impact on different industries, starting from the last decade, which continues nowadays, with the tendency to become omnipresent. The financial sector, as most of the other sectors, concentrated their operating activities mostly on structured data investigation. However, with the support of big data technologies, information stored in diverse sources of semi-structured and unstructured data could be harvested. Recent research and practice indicate that such information can be interesting for the decision-making process. Questions about how and to what extent research on data mining in the financial sector has developed and which tools are used for these purposes remains largely unexplored. This study aims to answer three research questions: (i) What is the intellectual core of the field? (ii) Which techniques are used in the financial sector for textual mining, especially in the era of the Internet, big data, and social media? (iii) Which data sources are the most often used for text mining in the financial sector, and for which purposes? In order to answer these questions, a qualitative analysis of literature is carried out using a systematic literature review, citation and co-citation analysis

Detecting Political Framing Shifts and the Adversarial Phrases within\\ Rival Factions and Ranking Temporal Snapshot Contents in Social Media

abstract: Social Computing is an area of computer science concerned with dynamics of communities and cultures, created through computer-mediated social interaction. Various social media platforms, such as social network services and microblogging, enable users to come together and create social movements expressing their opinions on diverse sets of issues, events, complaints, grievances, and goals. Methods for monitoring and summarizing these types of sociopolitical trends, its leaders and followers, messages, and dynamics are needed. In this dissertation, a framework comprising of community and content-based computational methods is presented to provide insights for multilingual and noisy political social media content. First, a model is developed to predict the emergence of viral hashtag breakouts, using network features. Next, another model is developed to detect and compare individual and organizational accounts, by using a set of domain and language-independent features. The third model exposes contentious issues, driving reactionary dynamics between opposing camps. The fourth model develops community detection and visualization methods to reveal underlying dynamics and key messages that drive dynamics. The final model presents a use case methodology for detecting and monitoring foreign influence, wherein a state actor and news media under its control attempt to shift public opinion by framing information to support multiple adversarial narratives that facilitate their goals. In each case, a discussion of novel aspects and contributions of the models is presented, as well as quantitative and qualitative evaluations. An analysis of multiple conflict situations will be conducted, covering areas in the UK, Bangladesh, Libya and the Ukraine where adversarial framing lead to polarization, declines in social cohesion, social unrest, and even civil wars (e.g., Libya and the Ukraine).Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Computer Science 201

Customer and Employee Social Media Comments/Feedback and Stock Purchasing Decisions Enhanced by Sentiment Analysis

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warns professional investors that sentiment analysis tools may lead to impulsive investment decision-making. This warning comes despite evidence showing that aided social sentiment investment decision tools can increase accurate investment decision-making by 18%. Using Fama\u27s theory of efficient market hypothesis, the purpose of this quantitative correlational study was to examine whether customer Twitter comments and employee Glassdoor feedback sentiment predicted successful investing decisions measured by business stock prices. Two thousand records from 3 archival U.S. public NASDAQ 100 datasets from March 28, 2016, to June 15, 2016 (79 days) of 53 companies with over 100 comments were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The multiple regression analysis results indicated no significant predictability for successful investing decisions, F(10, 2993) = .295, p = .982, R2 = .001. The results indicated that the sentiment from both Twitter and Glassdoor was not necessarily an indicator for investors to make successful investment decisions for the 79 days in 2016. The knowledge about Artificial Intelligence (AI) sentiment usage may help professional investors gain profit or prevent losses. A recommendation to investors is to heed warnings from the SEC about tools for sentiment analysis investment decisions. Implications for positive social change include preventing an investor from using a risky sentiment tool for investment decision-making that may lead to losing capital