The effect direction plot revisited: application of the 2019 Cochrane Handbook guidance on alternative synthesis methods

Effect direction (evidence to indicate improvement, deterioration, or no change in an outcome) can be used as a standardized metric which enables the synthesis of diverse effect measures in systematic reviews. The effect direction (ED) plot was developed to support the synthesis and visualization of effect direction data. Methods for the ED plot require updating in light of new Cochrane guidance on alternative synthesis methods. To update the ED plot, statistical significance was removed from the algorithm for within‐study synthesis and use of a sign test was considered to examine whether patterns of ED across studies could be due to chance alone. The revised methods were applied to an existing Cochrane review of the health impacts of housing improvements. The revised ED plot provides a method of data visualization in synthesis without meta‐analysis that incorporates information about study characteristics and study quality, using ED as a common metric, without relying on statistical significance to combine outcomes of single studies. The results of sign tests, when appropriate, suggest caution in over‐interpreting apparent patterns in effect direction, especially when the number of included studies is small. The revised ED plot meets the need for alternative methods of synthesis and data visualization when meta‐analysis is not possible, enabling a transparent link between the data and conclusions of a systematic review. ED plots may be particularly useful in reviews that incorporate nonrandomized studies, complex systems approaches, and diverse sources of evidence, due to the variety of study designs and outcomes in such reviews

Consensus and meta-analysis regulatory networks for combining multiple microarray gene expression datasets

Microarray data is a key source of experimental data for modelling gene regulatory interactions from expression levels. With the rapid increase of publicly available microarray data comes the opportunity to produce regulatory network models based on multiple datasets. Such models are potentially more robust with greater confidence, and place less reliance on a single dataset. However, combining datasets directly can be difficult as experiments are often conducted on different microarray platforms, and in different laboratories leading to inherent biases in the data that are not always removed through pre-processing such as normalisation. In this paper we compare two frameworks for combining microarray datasets to model regulatory networks: pre- and post-learning aggregation. In pre-learning approaches, such as using simple scale-normalisation prior to the concatenation of datasets, a model is learnt from a combined dataset, whilst in post-learning aggregation individual models are learnt from each dataset and the models are combined. We present two novel approaches for post-learning aggregation, each based on aggregating high-level features of Bayesian network models that have been generated from different microarray expression datasets. Meta-analysis Bayesian networks are based on combining statistical confidences attached to network edges whilst Consensus Bayesian networks identify consistent network features across all datasets. We apply both approaches to multiple datasets from synthetic and real (Escherichia coli and yeast) networks and demonstrate that both methods can improve on networks learnt from a single dataset or an aggregated dataset formed using a standard scale-normalisation

Recovering facial shape using a statistical model of surface normal direction

In this paper, we show how a statistical model of facial shape can be embedded within a shape-from-shading algorithm. We describe how facial shape can be captured using a statistical model of variations in surface normal direction. To construct this model, we make use of the azimuthal equidistant projection to map the distribution of surface normals from the polar representation on a unit sphere to Cartesian points on a local tangent plane. The distribution of surface normal directions is captured using the covariance matrix for the projected point positions. The eigenvectors of the covariance matrix define the modes of shape-variation in the fields of transformed surface normals. We show how this model can be trained using surface normal data acquired from range images and how to fit the model to intensity images of faces using constraints on the surface normal direction provided by Lambert's law. We demonstrate that the combination of a global statistical constraint and local irradiance constraint yields an efficient and accurate approach to facial shape recovery and is capable of recovering fine local surface details. We assess the accuracy of the technique on a variety of images with ground truth and real-world images

Representing complex data using localized principal components with application to astronomical data

Often the relation between the variables constituting a multivariate data space might be characterized by one or more of the terms: ``nonlinear'', ``branched'', ``disconnected'', ``bended'', ``curved'', ``heterogeneous'', or, more general, ``complex''. In these cases, simple principal component analysis (PCA) as a tool for dimension reduction can fail badly. Of the many alternative approaches proposed so far, local approximations of PCA are among the most promising. This paper will give a short review of localized versions of PCA, focusing on local principal curves and local partitioning algorithms. Furthermore we discuss projections other than the local principal components. When performing local dimension reduction for regression or classification problems it is important to focus not only on the manifold structure of the covariates, but also on the response variable(s). Local principal components only achieve the former, whereas localized regression approaches concentrate on the latter. Local projection directions derived from the partial least squares (PLS) algorithm offer an interesting trade-off between these two objectives. We apply these methods to several real data sets. In particular, we consider simulated astrophysical data from the future Galactic survey mission Gaia.Comment: 25 pages. In "Principal Manifolds for Data Visualization and Dimension Reduction", A. Gorban, B. Kegl, D. Wunsch, and A. Zinovyev (eds), Lecture Notes in Computational Science and Engineering, Springer, 2007, pp. 180--204, http://www.springer.com/dal/home/generic/search/results?SGWID=1-40109-22-173750210-

Terrain analysis using radar shape-from-shading

This paper develops a maximum a posteriori (MAP) probability estimation framework for shape-from-shading (SFS) from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The aim is to use this method to reconstruct surface topography from a single radar image of relatively complex terrain. Our MAP framework makes explicit how the recovery of local surface orientation depends on the whereabouts of terrain edge features and the available radar reflectance information. To apply the resulting process to real world radar data, we require probabilistic models for the appearance of terrain features and the relationship between the orientation of surface normals and the radar reflectance. We show that the SAR data can be modeled using a Rayleigh-Bessel distribution and use this distribution to develop a maximum likelihood algorithm for detecting and labeling terrain edge features. Moreover, we show how robust statistics can be used to estimate the characteristic parameters of this distribution. We also develop an empirical model for the SAR reflectance function. Using the reflectance model, we perform Lambertian correction so that a conventional SFS algorithm can be applied to the radar data. The initial surface normal direction is constrained to point in the direction of the nearest ridge or ravine feature. Each surface normal must fall within a conical envelope whose axis is in the direction of the radar illuminant. The extent of the envelope depends on the corrected radar reflectance and the variance of the radar signal statistics. We explore various ways of smoothing the field of surface normals using robust statistics. Finally, we show how to reconstruct the terrain surface from the smoothed field of surface normal vectors. The proposed algorithm is applied to various SAR data sets containing relatively complex terrain structure

Web User Session Characterization via Clustering Techniques

We focus on the identification and definition of "Web user-sessions", an aggregation of several TCP connections generated by the same source host on the basis of TCP connection opening time. The identification of a user session is non trivial; traditional approaches rely on threshold based mechanisms, which are very sensitive to the value assumed for the threshold and may be difficult to correctly set. By applying clustering techniques, we define a novel methodology to identify Web user-sessions without requiring an a priori definition of threshold values. We analyze the characteristics of user sessions extracted from real traces, studying the statistical properties of the identified sessions. From the study it emerges that Web user-sessions tend to be Poisson, but correlation may arise during periods of network/hosts anomalous functioning