Distinguishing cause from effect using observational data: methods and benchmarks

The discovery of causal relationships from purely observational data is a fundamental problem in science. The most elementary form of such a causal discovery problem is to decide whether X causes Y or, alternatively, Y causes X, given joint observations of two variables X, Y. An example is to decide whether altitude causes temperature, or vice versa, given only joint measurements of both variables. Even under the simplifying assumptions of no confounding, no feedback loops, and no selection bias, such bivariate causal discovery problems are challenging. Nevertheless, several approaches for addressing those problems have been proposed in recent years. We review two families of such methods: Additive Noise Methods (ANM) and Information Geometric Causal Inference (IGCI). We present the benchmark CauseEffectPairs that consists of data for 100 different cause-effect pairs selected from 37 datasets from various domains (e.g., meteorology, biology, medicine, engineering, economy, etc.) and motivate our decisions regarding the "ground truth" causal directions of all pairs. We evaluate the performance of several bivariate causal discovery methods on these real-world benchmark data and in addition on artificially simulated data. Our empirical results on real-world data indicate that certain methods are indeed able to distinguish cause from effect using only purely observational data, although more benchmark data would be needed to obtain statistically significant conclusions. One of the best performing methods overall is the additive-noise method originally proposed by Hoyer et al. (2009), which obtains an accuracy of 63+-10 % and an AUC of 0.74+-0.05 on the real-world benchmark. As the main theoretical contribution of this work we prove the consistency of that method.Comment: 101 pages, second revision submitted to Journal of Machine Learning Researc

Self-Calibration Methods for Uncontrolled Environments in Sensor Networks: A Reference Survey

Growing progress in sensor technology has constantly expanded the number and range of low-cost, small, and portable sensors on the market, increasing the number and type of physical phenomena that can be measured with wirelessly connected sensors. Large-scale deployments of wireless sensor networks (WSN) involving hundreds or thousands of devices and limited budgets often constrain the choice of sensing hardware, which generally has reduced accuracy, precision, and reliability. Therefore, it is challenging to achieve good data quality and maintain error-free measurements during the whole system lifetime. Self-calibration or recalibration in ad hoc sensor networks to preserve data quality is essential, yet challenging, for several reasons, such as the existence of random noise and the absence of suitable general models. Calibration performed in the field, without accurate and controlled instrumentation, is said to be in an uncontrolled environment. This paper provides current and fundamental self-calibration approaches and models for wireless sensor networks in uncontrolled environments

The Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft: a First Program Report

Studies have indicated that, with sufficient technology development, high speed civil transport aircraft could be economically competitive with long haul subsonic aircraft. However, uncertainty about atmospheric pollution, along with community noise and sonic boom, continues to be a major concern; and this is addressed in the planned 6 yr HSRP begun in 1990. Building on NASA's research in atmospheric science and emissions reduction, the AESA studies particularly emphasizing stratospheric ozone effects. Because it will not be possible to directly measure the impact of an HSCT aircraft fleet on the atmosphere, the only means of assessment will be prediction. The process of establishing credibility for the predicted effects will likely be complex and involve continued model development and testing against climatological patterns. Lab simulation of heterogeneous chemistry and other effects will continue to be used to improve the current models

Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes, supplement 220, June 1981

Approximately 137 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in May 1981 are recorded, covering a variety of topics in aerospace medicine and biology

Aeronautics and space report of the President, 1980 activities

The year's achievements in the areas of communication, Earth resources, environment, space sciences, transportation, and space energy are summarized and current and planned activities in these areas at the various departments and agencies of the Federal Government are summarized. Tables show U.S. and world spacecraft records, spacecraft launchings for 1980, and scientific payload anf probes launched 1975-1980. Budget data are included

COBE's search for structure in the Big Bang

The launch of Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) and the definition of Earth Observing System (EOS) are two of the major events at NASA-Goddard. The three experiments contained in COBE (Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR), Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS), and Diffuse Infrared Background Experiment (DIRBE)) are very important in measuring the big bang. DMR measures the isotropy of the cosmic background (direction of the radiation). FIRAS looks at the spectrum over the whole sky, searching for deviations, and DIRBE operates in the infrared part of the spectrum gathering evidence of the earliest galaxy formation. By special techniques, the radiation coming from the solar system will be distinguished from that of extragalactic origin. Unique graphics will be used to represent the temperature of the emitting material. A cosmic event will be modeled of such importance that it will affect cosmological theory for generations to come. EOS will monitor changes in the Earth's geophysics during a whole solar color cycle

Atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft: An evaluation of NASA's interim assessment

The advent of high-speed civil transport aircraft (HSCT's) some 25 years ago generated considerable concern about potential impacts on the stratosphere. With interest in such aircraft again increasing, NASA initiated an assessment of the potential stratospheric impacts of a substantial increase in the use of HSCT's. This assessment was intended to examine, from the standpoint of present scientific understanding, the potential atmospheric impacts of a fleet of high-speed civil transports flying supersonically in the lower stratosphere. The program was initiated in 1991, and the bulk of its research is scheduled to be completed in 1995. In early 1993 NASA asked the National Research Council to review its efforts. This report documents its findings and recommendations