The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban-rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both models can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, 4 table

Optimal Resource Allocation Over Time and Degree Classes for Maximizing Information Dissemination in Social Networks

We study the optimal control problem of allocating campaigning resources over the campaign duration and degree classes in a social network. Information diffusion is modeled as a Susceptible-Infected epidemic and direct recruitment of susceptible nodes to the infected (informed) class is used as a strategy to accelerate the spread of information. We formulate an optimal control problem for optimizing a net reward function, a linear combination of the reward due to information spread and cost due to application of controls. The time varying resource allocation and seeds for the epidemic are jointly optimized. A problem variation includes a fixed budget constraint. We prove the existence of a solution for the optimal control problem, provide conditions for uniqueness of the solution, and prove some structural results for the controls (e.g. controls are non-increasing functions of time). The solution technique uses Pontryagin's Maximum Principle and the forward-backward sweep algorithm (and its modifications) for numerical computations. Our formulations lead to large optimality systems with up to about 200 differential equations and allow us to study the effect of network topology (Erdos-Renyi/scale-free) on the controls. Results reveal that the allocation of campaigning resources to various degree classes depends not only on the network topology but also on system parameters such as cost/abundance of resources. The optimal strategies lead to significant gains over heuristic strategies for various model parameters. Our modeling approach assumes uncorrelated network, however, we find the approach useful for real networks as well. This work is useful in product advertising, political and crowdfunding campaigns in social networks.Comment: 14 + 4 pages, 11 figures. Author's version of the article accepted for publication in IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking. This version includes 4 pages of supplementary material containing proofs of theorems present in the article. Published version can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TNET.2015.251254

The Dynamics of Multi-Modal Networks

The widespread study of networks in diverse domains, including social, technological, and scientific settings, has increased the interest in statistical and machine learning techniques for network analysis. Many of these networks are complex, involving more than one kind of entity, and multiple relationship types, both changing over time. While there have been many network analysis methods proposed for problems such as network evolution, community detection, information diffusion and opinion leader identification, the majority of these methods assume a single entity type, a single edge type and often no temporal dynamics. One of the main shortcomings of these traditional techniques is their inadequacy for capturing higher-order dependencies often present in real, complex networks. To address these shortcomings, I focus on analysis and inference in dynamic, multi-modal, multi-relational networks, containing multiple entity types (such as people, social groups, organizations, locations, etc.), and different relationship types (such as friendship, membership, affiliation, etc.). An example from social network theory is a network describing users, organizations and interest groups, where users have different types of ties among each other, such as friendship, family ties, etc., as well as affiliation and membership links with organizations and interest groups. By considering the complex structure of these networks rather than limiting the analysis to a single entity or relationship type, I show how we can build richer predictive models that provide better understanding of the network dynamics, and thus result in better quality predictions. In the first part of my dissertation, I address the problems of network evolution and clustering. For network evolution, I describe methods for modeling the interactions between different modalities, and propose a co-evolution model for social and affiliation networks. I then move to the problem of network clustering, where I propose a novel algorithm for clustering multi-modal, multi-relational data. The second part of my dissertation focuses on the temporal dynamics of interactions in complex networks, from both user-level and network-level perspectives. For the user-centric approach, I analyze the dynamics of user relationships with other entity types, proposing a measure of the "loyalty" a user shows for a given group or topic, based on her temporal interaction pattern. I then move to macroscopic-level approaches for analyzing the dynamic processes that occur on a network scale. I propose a new differential adaptive diffusion model for incorporating diversity and trust in the process of information diffusion on multi-modal, multi-relational networks. I also discuss the implications of the proposed diffusion model on designing new strategies for viral marketing and influential detection. I validate all the proposed methods on several real-world networks from multiple domains

Detecting the Influence of Spreading in Social Networks with Excitable Sensor Networks

Detecting spreading outbreaks in social networks with sensors is of great significance in applications. Inspired by the formation mechanism of human's physical sensations to external stimuli, we propose a new method to detect the influence of spreading by constructing excitable sensor networks. Exploiting the amplifying effect of excitable sensor networks, our method can better detect small-scale spreading processes. At the same time, it can also distinguish large-scale diffusion instances due to the self-inhibition effect of excitable elements. Through simulations of diverse spreading dynamics on typical real-world social networks (facebook, coauthor and email social networks), we find that the excitable senor networks are capable of detecting and ranking spreading processes in a much wider range of influence than other commonly used sensor placement methods, such as random, targeted, acquaintance and distance strategies. In addition, we validate the efficacy of our method with diffusion data from a real-world online social system, Twitter. We find that our method can detect more spreading topics in practice. Our approach provides a new direction in spreading detection and should be useful for designing effective detection methods