Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis

The book includes 13 chapters that look ahead to how NATO can best address the cyber threats, as well as opportunities and challenges from emerging and disruptive technologies in the cyber domain over the next decade. The present volume addresses these conceptual and practical requirements and contributes constructively to the NATO 2030 discussions. The book is arranged in five short parts...All the chapters in this book have undergone double-blind peer review by at least two external experts.https://scholarworks.wm.edu/asbook/1038/thumbnail.jp

The Utility of Narrative Matrix Games—A Baltic Example

The focus of professional gaming has shifted over time from the kinetic so as to include wider aspects of confrontations beyond war fighting, such as national will, social media, economics, and the laws of war. While traditional wargame models have struggled to represent these factors adequately, the matrix game narrative method offers utility for gaming current political crises

Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Forging Wargamers

How do we establish or improve wargaming education, including sponsors, participants, and future designers? The question stems from the uncomfortable truth that the wargaming discipline has no foundational pipeline, no established pathway from novice to master. Consequently, the wargaming community stands at a dangerous precipice at the convergence of a stagnant labor force and a patchwork system of passing institutional war-gaming knowledge. Unsurprisingly, this can lead to ill-informed sponsors, poorly scoped wargames, an unreliable standard of wargaming expertise, and worst of all, risks the decline of wargaming as an educational and analytical tool. This fundamental challenge is a recurring theme throughout this volume and each author offers their own perspective and series of recommendations

Planning for the Kamikazes - Toward a Theory and Practice of Repeated Operational Games

Operational gaming, which includes war gaming, in this context means a simulation that does not involve actual operations, one in which the flow of events affects and is affected by decisions made during the course of those events by players representing the roles of those involved in shaping the outcomes

MAD* Beyond Defence : *Methodology for Assessing Disruptions

Advancements in technology are regularly identified, assessed, and classed into emerging and/or potentially disruptive technologies, according to their ability to cause disruptions to defence systems, and in defence. Perhaps this is because defence capabilities centre on grand technology systems deployed at the level of nations. Hypersonic missiles are one example. The testing of a new hypersonic missile or a research program on types of hypersonic drones immediately sparks questions like: which other nations have such capability? or what types of technologies can be used to detect or counter these? In contrast, the ability to identify weak, faint factors that add up and lead to conflict are not brought together in a systematic manner. Nor is it common for there to be a cross-talk between a combination of methods used within military science and technology organizations over in to social sciences related to intelligence and/or conflict. This is a preventable strategic foresight issue relevant for enhancing, planning for, and investing in the security space. This paper describes the MAD (Methodology for Assessing Disruptions) tool, which is adaptable beyond the defence domain. MAD is a scenario-based two-part table-top exercise conducted to identify weak signals that have the potential to cause disruptions, which by consequence may coalesce into challenges for security. Exercising such methods is essential for security professionals to prepare and plan for future conflicts instead of constantly reacting to immediate acute problems

Emerging Risks in the Marine Transportation System (MTS), 2001- 2021

How has maritime security evolved since 2001, and what challenges exist moving forward? This report provides an overview of the current state of maritime security with an emphasis on port security. It examines new risks that have arisen over the last twenty years, the different types of security challenges these risks pose, and how practitioners can better navigate these challenges. Building on interviews with 37 individuals immersed in maritime security protocols, we identify five major challenges in the modern maritime security environment: (1) new domains for exploitation, (2) big data and information processing, (3) attribution challenges, (4) technological innovations, and (5) globalization. We explore how these challenges increase the risk of small-scale, high-probability incidents against an increasingly vulnerable Marine Transportation System (MTS). We conclude by summarizing several measures that can improve resilience-building and mitigate these risks

Education for Seapower Strategy 2020

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