Governance in niche development for a transition to a new mobility regime

Urban mobility is a difficult sustainability challenge; measures to reduce transport impacts produce only marginal reductions in overall energy use and CO2 emissions. Even fuel switch to electric vehicles and measures to manage traffic produce insufficient improvements. Seeking transport sustainability within the existing socio-technical regime involves policy approaches for dense cities to provide high-capacity, corridor-based public transport, expecting people to arrange their lives around such transport systems. Yet this socio-technical regime ill-fits modern mobility needs. The reluctance to use public transport stems much from this 150 year old regime configuration. The social-technical landscape has shifted significantly: travel patterns are increasingly dispersed in space and time – not funnelled into traditional corridor peak-hour movements. The key is not getting people to return to travel patterns of 100 years ago, but in a transition to a socio-technical transport regime that delivers sustainability compatible with the 21st century social-technical landscape. An opportunity may be emerging for socio-technical configurations in niche environments to effect transitions to alternate mobility futures. Autonomous vehicles are rapidly approaching market application. Since 2011, small autonomous pods have operated on segregated tracks at Heathrow Airport. In 2014 a similar system opened at the Suncheon Bay tourist area in South Korea. Since 2011 there have been public street trials of autonomous vehicles in the USA and in 2015 they became street legal in the UK. The Milton Keynes (MK) ‘Pathfinder’ project focuses on two-seat pods which do not need segregated tracks, but will run on cycleways and footpaths, mixing with cyclists and pedestrians. Trials will start in 2015, on short distance links from the railway station to destinations in Central Milton Keynes. This project forms part of the wider Milton Keynes Future Cities Programme and Open University-led MK:Smart project. This paper draws on these trials in MK to show through case study research how autonomous vehicles applications are moving beyond protected niches and, along with other developments, hold the potential to stimulate a major transition in public transport systems. The vehicles are small and each journey is individual to the passenger(s). Services do not run along corridor routes, like buses and trams, but are based on alternate rule-sets to the existing regime with individual journeys customised for each user. Such developments may therefore stimulate transition to totally different sorts of public transport systems and ultimately, socio-technical mobility regimes, by offering much more to users than any corridor system can provide. Rather than people adjusting their behaviour to bus routes, schedules and operating times, they travel directly, whenever they want, on services running 24/7. Thus these new regimes could be more compatible with lifestyle and economic trends that comprise 21st century socio-technical landscapes. As such, they provide credible alternatives to the private car, and so hold potential to deliver major sustainability gains. But such transitions face major challenges from entrenched actors within the existing regime. Taxis, minicabs and bus operators would be threatened. If the Uber cab app is being blocked by incumbent actors, they look likely to be powerful opponents of autonomous vehicle based cab services. However, MK provides an interesting innovation context where there are several overlapping smart transport niches in different stages of development. As well as autonomous pods, demand responsive minibuses are planned and inductive changed electric buses are in service. If these projects build links to each other (niche accumulation), demonstrate economic value and reproduced beyond their original experimental spaces (niche proliferation), there is potential for them to overcome incumbent resistance. In Milton Keynes, these processes could be getting close to reaching critical mass, opening up the possibility of moving closer to radical regime transitions

Driverless Mobility: The Impact on Metropolitan Spatial Structures

AbstractDiffusion of emerging technologies is following the need of solving particular problems. Each innovation produces also some undesirable consequences. Many examples from the past have shown that along with the spread of each technology their side effects are accumulating until the level they need to be solved. One of the examples is automobile, which advantages and disadvantages were already described including its spatial consequences. Automobile did not change its general way of functioning for over one century, and recent technological advances in automation may revolutionize the way it is used. Nowadays, automotive and IT industries are investing in so called: autonomous automobiles, driverless vehicles and self-driving cars, the meaning of which intertwine. Diffusion of automation in mobility is going to accelerate in the near future. The earliest implementations of new transport technologies appear in metropolises which also have the highest level of general mobility. Due to the possible significant consequences of this innovation's diffusion for metropolitan (urban and suburban) spatial structures it is important to anticipate its potential side effects to avoid negative consequences, and if necessary – to prepare to encounter them. This led to undertake research on the relationship between modern mobility innovations and metropolitan spatial structures. The article presents the assumptions and principles of scenario-based research. The example shows how diffusion of different driverless mobility solutions determine different impacts on spatial structures, and thus possible scenarios for the future

Intelligent Management System for Driverless Vehicles

This research addresses concerns related to driverless vehicles by proposing the development of an Intelligent Management System (IMS). Emphasised in 'The Pathway to Driverless Cars Summary report and action plan' by the UK Department of Transport, key areas for improvement lie in vehicle reliability, maintenance, and passenger safety. The study targets compliance with Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) Level 5 automation, concentrating on fully autonomous vehicles to enhance commuter satisfaction and overall vehicle performance. Despite advancements, challenges such as on-road safety and integration persist. The research unfolds through a two-stage development process aimed at achieving an Intelligent Management System for Driverless Vehicles (IMSDV). The initial stage, described in chapter 3 involves the creation of a 'Single Seat Driverless Pod' as a test apparatus, simulating various features found in existing driverless vehicles. This includes the development of mechanical steering components and a control system incorporating electronic hardware, sensors, actuators, controllers, wireless remote access, and software. The subsequent phase, described in chapter 4 focuses on autonomous navigation using Google Maps, intelligent motion control, localisation, and tracking algorithms within the driverless pod. The latter chapters of the thesis present the investigation of possible improvements in steering system components. A novel encapsulated vehicle wheel condition monitoring system, integrating the Internet of Things (IoT), is proposed to enhance maintainability, reliability, and passenger safety for driverless vehicles. Testing and validation are conducted in two segments. The driverless pod undergoes initial testing to validate its features and generate data for further sub-system development. Separately, the IoT-based monitoring system undergoes individual testing. The final step involves integrating the IoT capabilities into the driverless pod, testing the sub-system, and capturing relevant data. The thesis outlines the research scope, emphasising significant contributions, with a particular focus on the monitoring system for steering components in driverless vehicles, employing embedded IoT technology. This augmentation, alongside other original contribution, is strategically poised to enhance the maintainability, reliability, and safety of driverless vehicles at SAE Level 5. The concluding chapter succinctly revisits these distinctive contributions and additionally provides recommendations for advancing intelligent management systems for driverless vehicles

How a rapid modal convergence into a universal automated taxi service could be the future for local passenger transport

The world is changing rapidly. Yet a common assumption is that cars, buses and taxis will remain the dominant local passenger transport modes in the coming decades. This concept paper draws on literature sources and on discussions with industry stakeholders to look anew at the local passenger transport sector in the light of broader societal trends to suggest an alternative future, and to offer insights to practitioners and policy makers. The paper finds that the traditional modes of car, bus and taxi are slowly beginning to lose market share to intermediate modes such as shared taxis, lift sharing schemes, DRT services and car clubs whilst numerous technological and market trends are combining to accelerate this process of ‘modal convergence’. Taken together, these trends could revolutionise how we move about, with one possible outcome being the emergence of a single dominant passenger mode of an automated universal taxi system or dial-a-pod

The utility of psychological measures in evaluating perceived usability of automated vehicle interfaces – A study with older adults

The design of the traditional vehicle human-machine interfaces (HMIs) is undergoing major change as we move towards fully connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Given the diversity of user requirements and preferences, it is vital for designers to gain a deeper understanding of any underlying factors that could impact usability. The current study employs a range of carefully selected psychological measures to investigate the relationship with self-report usability of an in-CAV HMI integrated into a fully automated Level 5 simulator, during simulated journeys. Twenty-five older adults (65-years+) participated and were exposed to four journeys in a virtual reality fully automated CAV simulator (with video recorded journeys) into which our HMI was integrated. Participants completed a range of scales and questionnaires, as well as computerized cognitive tests. Key measures were: perceived usability of the HMI, cognitive performance, personality, attitudes towards computers, trust in technology, simulator sickness, presence and emotion. HMI perceived usability correlated positively with cognitive performance (e.g., working memory) and some individual characteristics such as trust in technology and negatively with neuroticism anxiety. Simulator sickness was associated negatively with CAV HMI perceived usability. Positive emotions correlated positively with reported usability across all four journeys, while negative emotions were negatively associated with usability only in the case of the last two journeys. Increased sense of presence in the virtual CAV simulator was not associated with usability. Implications for design are critically discussed. Our research is highly relevant in the design of high-fully automated vehicle HMIs, particularly for older adults, and in informing policy-makers and automated mobility providers of how to improve older people’s uptake of this technology

Social Ramifications of Autonomous Urban Land

Abstract—Autonomous vehicle technology may arrive much sooner than most people expect and it has profound implications for transportation. The technology facilitates a rail-less personal rapid transit (PRT) system using both public and private vehicles. Road traffic fatalities and injuries may decline by one to two orders of magnitude. A PRT system can provide mobility to the blind, elders suffering from dementia, children and the intoxicated. The system can make use of existing infrastructure, reduces urban sprawl and eases congestion. Autonomous vehicle based systems can improve fuel efficiency. The technology presents a window of opportunity for a new mode of transportation that obtains efficiencies of up to 0.25 l/100 km (1000 mpg equivalent), reducing U.S. petroleum consumption by up to 16%. The U.S. carbon savings could reach the equivalent of 12 trains of 100 coal cars daily. Keywords-Autonomous vehicles, personal rapid transit, traffic safety, fuel efficiency, mobility, global warming, people mover, pod car. I

Paratransit: the need for a regulatory revolution in the light of institutional inertia

© 2016 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Purpose - This chapter adopts a transport systems approach to explore why the adoption of paratransit modes is low and sporadic. Regulatory and institutional barriers are identified as a major reason for this. The chapter then reviews key trends and issues relating to the uptake of, and barriers to, paratransit modes. Based on this analysis a new regulatory structure is proposed. Design/methodology/approach - Case studies and research/practice literature. Findings - Following an exploration of the nature of paratransit system design and traditional definitions of ‘paratransit’, it is concluded that institutional barriers are critical. However, current societal trends and service developments, and in particular initiatives from the technology service industry, are developing significant new paratransit models. The chapter concludes with a proposed redefinition of paratransit to facilitate a regulatory change to help overcome its institutional challenges. Research limitations/implications - A paratransit transformation of public transport services would produce travel behaviours different from models and perspectives built around corridor/timetabled public transport services. Practical implications - Technology firm invaders (e.g. Uber) are viewed as disrupters from normal transport planning to be controlled or excluded. However they may be the key to a transport system transformation. Social implications - Existing public transport modes are ill-suited to modern patterns of travel demand. A system involving paratransit could produce enhanced social mobility and system-level improvements in CO2 emissions. Originality/value - This chapter identifies the key issues raised by the emergence of new paratransit modes and the new actors involved. A new regulatory structure is proposed which reflects this understanding

The State and Future of Autonomous Vehicle Regulation in the United States

Autonomous vehicle technology is poised to revolutionize transit around the world. There are currently tens of private companies either testing or building autonomous vehicles, including industry juggernauts like Ford and Google. This new mode of transportation falls into a regulatory grey area. Once cars reach full autonomy, governments will have to decide what entities will regulate them, where they will be allowed to drive, who will be responsible for them and a host of other issues. In some municipalities like San Francisco and Phoenix, autonomous vehicles (AVs) are being tested on public streets in real life conditions. Meanwhile, in 2017, 33 US states have released frameworks on how they believe AVs should operate in real world environments. There is broad consensus that AVs should be programmed to prioritize safety, but the details in each plan vary to accommodate the specific circumstances of different localities. If AVs are indeed inevitable as urban planners and futurists believe they are, then we must completely rethink the way vehicles use the road. The introduction of autonomous vehicles could bring massive reductions in greenhouse emissions, more efficient land use due to the elimination of parking structures, less traffic, safer roads, and other benefits. Without proper forethought and planning however, business as usual automotive policy could create impenetrable walls of autonomous vehicles on cities in highways for elite drivers and limit transit options for everyone else. Examining existing US federal and state law has shown that the burden of regulating future autonomous vehicles is on the states. Some states already have regulations concerning the testing of autonomous vehicles on the books. The US federal government plays an advisory role only. Guided by best practice principles ratified at the Kaohsiung conference, states should develop frameworks to encourage and regulate autonomous vehicle testing to make sure that it is safe and accountable

Findings from workshops held with older people considering participating in connected autonomous vehicle trials

This report contains findings from a series of four workshops held with older people as part of the Flourish project. The workshops were held with potential participants in driverless vehicle trials at UWE. The report details how this group would use such vehicles, and how they would like to interact with them