Warfighting for cyber deterrence: a strategic and moral imperative

Theories of cyber deterrence are developing rapidly. However, the literature is missing an important ingredient—warfighting for deterrence. This controversial idea, most commonly associated with nuclear strategy during the later stages of the Cold War, affords a number of advantages. It provides enhanced credibility for deterrence, offers means to deal with deterrence failure (including intrawar deterrence and damage limitation), improves compliance with the requirements of just war and ultimately ensures that strategy continues to function in the post-deterrence environment. This paper assesses whether a warfighting for deterrence approach is suitable for the cyber domain. In doing so, it challenges the notion that warfighting concepts are unsuitable for operations in cyberspace. To do this, the work constructs a conceptual framework that is then applied to cyber deterrence. It is found that all of the advantages of taking a warfighting stance apply to cyber operations. The paper concludes by constructing a warfighting model for cyber deterrence. This model includes passive and active defences and cross-domain offensive capabilities. The central message of the paper is that a theory of victory (strategy) must guide the development of cyber deterrence

Distributed Interactive Simulation: Operational Concept Draft 2.2

Report to present the operational concept for distributed interactive simulation, with the understanding that DIS will evolve over time as more participants in training and testing communities articulate their requirements

Intelligence

Intelligence, United States Army Field Manual FM 2-

Exploring Fog of War Concepts in Wargame Scenarios

This thesis explores fog of war concepts through three submitted journal articles. The Department of Defense and U.S. Air Force are attempting to analyze war scenarios to aid the decision-making process; fog modeling improves realism in these wargame scenarios. The first article Navigating an Enemy Contested Area with a Parallel Search Algorithm [1] investigates a parallel algorithm\u27s speedup, compared to the sequential implementation, with varying map configurations in a tile-based wargame. The parallel speedup tends to exceed 50 but in certain situations. The sequential algorithm outperforms it depending on the configuration of enemy location and amount on the map. The second article Modeling Fog of War Effects in AFSIM [2] introduces the FAT for the AFSIM to introduce and manipulate fog in wargame scenarios. FAT integrates into AFSIM version 2.7.0 and scenario results verify the tool\u27s fog effects for positioning error, hits, and probability affect the success rate. The third article Applying Fog Analysis Tool to AFSIM Multi-Domain CLASS scenarios [3] furthers the verification of FAT to introduce fog across all war fighting domains using a set of CLASS scenarios. The success rate trends with fog impact for each domain scenario support FAT\u27s effectiveness in disrupting the decision-making process for multi-domain operations. The three articles demonstrate fog can affect search, tasking, and decision-making processes for various types of wargame scenarios. The capabilities introduced in this thesis support wargame analysts to improve decision-making in AFSIM military scenarios

IMMACCS: A Multi-Agent Decision-Support System

This report describes work performed by the Collaborative Agent Design Research Center for the US Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory (MCWL), on the IMMACCS experimental decision-support system. IMMACCS (Integrated Marine Multi-Agent Command and Control System) incorporates three fundamental concepts that distinguish it from existing (i.e., legacy) command and control applications. First, it is a collaborative system in which computer-based agents assist human operators by monitoring, analyzing, and reasoning about events in near real-time. Second, IMMACCS includes an ontological model of the battlespace that represents the behavioral characteristics and relationships among real world entities such as friendly and enemy assets, infrastructure objects (e.g., buildings, roads, and rivers), and abstract notions. This object model provides the essential common language that binds all IMMACCS components into an integrated and adaptive decision-support system. Third, IMMACCS provides no ready made solutions that may not be applicable to the problems that will occur in the real world. Instead, the agents represent a powerful set of tools that together with the human operators can adjust themselves to the problem situations that cannot be predicted in advance. In this respect, IMMACCS is an adaptive command and control system that supports planning, execution and training functions concurrently. The report describes the nature and functional requirements of military command and control, the architectural features of IMMACCS that are designed to support these operational requirements, the capabilities of the tools (i.e., agents) that IMMACCS offers its users, and the manner in which these tools can be applied. Finally, the performance of IMMACCS during the Urban Warrior Advanced Warfighting Experiment held in California in March, 1999, is discussed from an operational viewpoint

Ethical Control of Unmanned Systems: lifesaving/lethal scenarios for naval operations

Prepared for: Raytheon Missiles & Defense under NCRADA-NPS-19-0227This research in Ethical Control of Unmanned Systems applies precepts of Network Optional Warfare (NOW) to develop a three-step Mission Execution Ontology (MEO) methodology for validating, simulating, and implementing mission orders for unmanned systems. First, mission orders are represented in ontologies that are understandable by humans and readable by machines. Next, the MEO is validated and tested for logical coherence using Semantic Web standards. The validated MEO is refined for implementation in simulation and visualization. This process is iterated until the MEO is ready for implementation. This methodology is applied to four Naval scenarios in order of increasing challenges that the operational environment and the adversary impose on the Human-Machine Team. The extent of challenge to Ethical Control in the scenarios is used to refine the MEO for the unmanned system. The research also considers Data-Centric Security and blockchain distributed ledger as enabling technologies for Ethical Control. Data-Centric Security is a combination of structured messaging, efficient compression, digital signature, and document encryption, in correct order, for round-trip messaging. Blockchain distributed ledger has potential to further add integrity measures for aggregated message sets, confirming receipt/response/sequencing without undetected message loss. When implemented, these technologies together form the end-to-end data security that ensures mutual trust and command authority in real-world operational environments—despite the potential presence of interfering network conditions, intermittent gaps, or potential opponent intercept. A coherent Ethical Control approach to command and control of unmanned systems is thus feasible. Therefore, this research concludes that maintaining human control of unmanned systems at long ranges of time-duration and distance, in denied, degraded, and deceptive environments, is possible through well-defined mission orders and data security technologies. Finally, as the human role remains essential in Ethical Control of unmanned systems, this research recommends the development of an unmanned system qualification process for Naval operations, as well as additional research prioritized based on urgency and impact.Raytheon Missiles & DefenseRaytheon Missiles & Defense (RMD).Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

DEVELOPING AN ASSESSMENT SYSTEM FOR DOD DEMAND REDUCTION INITIATIVES

The DOD developed a new Joint Warfighting Concept (JWC) to address how the United States will confront the nation’s most pressing national security challenges. The focus of the JWC was the importance of logistics during combat operations and the ability to sustain a large force over strategic distances. The DOD’s shift of focus to near-peer threats requires sustainment demand reduction across the services. Many demand reduction initiatives (DRI) are under consideration to lessen the burden of logistics at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Due to the relative newness of the JWC, the LOG FCB does not have a quantitative, credible, repeatable process to effectively assess, compare, and prioritize implementation of demand reduction initiatives. This study implemented several systems engineering (SE) concepts that include the completion of stakeholder analysis, functional analysis, mapping of function to form, creating a top-level and detailed systems design, the use of value modeling, and the application of sensitivity analysis. The use of these SE tools and processes resulted in the development of a DRI Assessment System which includes instructions for use of the system, questionnaire for data collection, Excel calculation sheets, and the metrics and definitions for the selected attributes. These products provide the logistics functional capability board (LOG FCB) the capability to objectively prioritize current and future DRIs to implement across the DOD.Major, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyCaptain, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Protecting the Protector: Mapping the Key Terrain that Supports the Continuous Monitoring Mission of a Cloud Cybersecurity Service Provider

Key terrain is a concept that is relevant to warfare, military strategy, and tactics. A good general maps out terrain to identify key areas to protect in support of a mission (i.e., a bridge allowing for mobility of supplies and reinforcements). Effective ways to map terrain in Cyberspace (KT-C) has been an area of interest for researchers in Cybersecurity ever since the Department of Defense designated Cyberspace as a warfighting domain. The mapping of KT-C for a mission is accomplished by putting forth efforts to understand and document a mission\u27s dependence on Cyberspace and cyber assets. A cloud Cybersecurity Service Provider (CSSP) continuously monitors the network infrastructure of an information system in the cloud ensuring its security posture is within acceptable risk. This research is focused on mapping the key terrain that supports the continuous monitoring mission of a cloud CSSP. Traditional methods to map KT-C have been broad. Success has been difficult to achieve due to the unique nature of the Cyberspace domain when compared to traditional warfighting domains. This work focuses on a specific objective or mission within cyberspace. It is a contextual approach to identify and map key terrain in cyberspace. Mapping is accomplished through empirical surveys conducted on Cybersecurity professionals with various years of experience working in a cloud or CSSP environment. The background of the Cybersecurity professionals participating in the survey will include United States Government personnel/contractors, and other Cybersecurity practitioners in the private sector. This process provided an approach to identify and map key terrain in a contextual manner specific to the mission of a typical cloud CSSP. Practitioners can use it as a template for their specific cloud CSSP mission

WHAT IS TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY?

The purpose of this thesis is to explore and define the framework for a type of military development strategy that links technological decisions to strategic effects—technology strategy. This study is novel, as most approaches to technology strategy focus on producing technology as an end in itself instead of focusing on technology development and acquisition as the principal means for achieving strategic effects. By placing technology as the means and strategic effects as the ends, this study deduces an original, perhaps seminal, description of technology strategy and a framework for its formulation. Arms-racing case studies and an exploration of offense-defense theory structure this exploration and enable the observation of technology strategy’s core characteristics, which are its relationships to doctrinal innovation and organizational design, forms or templates, approaches to acquisition, and potential pitfalls. The structural components of the technology strategy concept illuminated are then arranged in a proposed taxonomy that fits within the U.S. military’s joint concept development process. Beyond the descriptive and structural components, this study also identifies notable best practices in the application of technology strategy, particularly those that an effective technology strategy should encompass—both the decisions surrounding which weapons, transportation, and information systems to invest in, and their implications, in practice, for organization and doctrine.Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States Air ForceApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited