The future of jihad: what next for ISIL and al-Qaeda?

This report examines what the rise of ISIL means for al-Qaeda and how will it react. Overview ISIL is a real threat and must be targeted, but al-Qaeda shouldn’t be forgotten. Indeed, al-Qaeda should remain a key focus for international counterterrorism efforts. It’s a resilient and resolute terrorist organisation, but it’s also weaker than it’s been for many years. We should use this brief opportunity to dismantle the organisation completely. The report examines what the rise of ISIL means for al-Qaeda and how will it react. How will al-Qaeda seek to regain the oxygen of publicity that’s central to terrorist organisations if they’re to recruit, grow and, ultimately, challenge their enemies? Does the rise of ISIL signal the end of al-Qaeda or might al-Qaeda merge with ISIL, confront it head on or take some other course of action? The authors explore four alternative futures for al-Qaeda and ISIL and conclude that a worrying scenario of ‘one-upmanship’ is likely to take place between the two organisations in which al-Qaeda pursues a campaign of international attacks in order to regain the limelight

A contemporary insight into Islamist extremist radicalisation and an exploration of the effectiveness of prevention and reformative strategies

The threat of Islamist extremism has become a major concern for many countries, requiring the development and implementation of effective de-radicalisation strategies. The focus of this study is to provide a contemporary insight into the radicalisation process of Islamist extremists and the effectiveness of the Prevent strategy as a de-radicalisation approach. The research methodology involved conducting a survey with 46 Prevent practitioners throughout the UK regions of the Counter Terror Commands. The design of the survey implemented a series of open-ended and closed-ended questions to gather first-hand experiences and insights. This created both qualitative and quantitative elements to the research with respondents being given the opportunity scale questions in order of their perceived importance and then elaborate on their answers with the free-text questions. The results of the study revealed several key themes and identified areas where the Prevent strategy could be improved. Specifically, the results identified prominent demographics of individuals being radicalised, the most significant locations being used to do so and new tactics employed by radicalisers and extremist groups. The study presents key findings regarding the sites of radicalisation and the platforms utilised by Islamist extremist recruiters to engage with and motivate individuals towards terrorism. It is noted that there has been a shift from traditional in-person interactions towards the online space, where new platforms, such as gaming, have emerged as a potential high level threat due to their difficulty to monitor. Recommendations are made to utilise new technologies to stay ahead of young, enterprising individuals. The findings suggest that the Prevent strategy is effective, but better communication is required to highlight successes and to gain the societal approval required due to being a voluntary service. Additional policy and procedural recommendations are made to enhance the program's efficiency and effectiveness. The limitations of this study are that it presented from a Prevent policing practitioner perspective only. Future research should consider surveying individuals who have been referred to the Channel program to provide a rounded perspective. The findings provide key discoveries and valuable information for policymakers and practitioners to assist in combating Islamist extremism and developing effective de-radicalisation strategies

State of the art 2015: a literature review of social media intelligence capabilities for counter-terrorism

Overview This paper is a review of how information and insight can be drawn from open social media sources. It focuses on the specific research techniques that have emerged, the capabilities they provide, the possible insights they offer, and the ethical and legal questions they raise. These techniques are considered relevant and valuable in so far as they can help to maintain public safety by preventing terrorism, preparing for it, protecting the public from it and pursuing its perpetrators. The report also considers how far this can be achieved against the backdrop of radically changing technology and public attitudes towards surveillance. This is an updated version of a 2013 report paper on the same subject, State of the Art. Since 2013, there have been significant changes in social media, how it is used by terrorist groups, and the methods being developed to make sense of it.  The paper is structured as follows: Part 1 is an overview of social media use, focused on how it is used by groups of interest to those involved in counter-terrorism. This includes new sections on trends of social media platforms; and a new section on Islamic State (IS). Part 2 provides an introduction to the key approaches of social media intelligence (henceforth ‘SOCMINT’) for counter-terrorism. Part 3 sets out a series of SOCMINT techniques. For each technique a series of capabilities and insights are considered, the validity and reliability of the method is considered, and how they might be applied to counter-terrorism work explored. Part 4 outlines a number of important legal, ethical and practical considerations when undertaking SOCMINT work

The EU legal framework and national strategies for monitoring terrorist content online

It is generally but rightly said that while everyone understands what terrorism is, no one has agreed on its definition yet. The scenario is no different when it comes to the issue of online terrorist content. The ambit and the scope of legal definition pertaining to the terrorist organization online has always been an issue for the European Union Member States. With the increasing frequency of online terrorist content and their changing spectrums has made this task for the jurists a bit difficult and hard nut to crack. There was always a need to not only analyze the issues that the EU Member States face in defining the ambit of it, but it seemed quite necessary that the scope of those provisions which pertains to the distribution of terrorist content online much be re-defined or at least defined. The legal framework that has been taken into account has somehow served the purpose in this regard. However, holistic efforts are required in this regard. On the similar account, the surveillance of the online terrorist content in European Union is needed to be tighten up. For that, this study assessed the ways in which the EU Member States are monitoring and handling online terrorist content and related issues in the region. In this regard, number of commissions under the ambit of European Union and other working under national authorities have shown significant work. These Commissions are continuously studying the matter of handling illegal content on online platforms and have already organized a number of educational and informational activities. The weaknesses and strengths of the European Union Members States to counter online terrorist content is of grave concern. There is need to present and evaluate the EU Member States’ strategies regarding online terror related content. Analysis can be made over case studies of France and Germany. The study moves forward by assessing and evaluating the remedial measures in this regard as well. The major focus is based upon assessing the remedies and complaint procedures to address the distribution of terrorist content online under the Regulation (EU) 2021/784. Similarly, an effort has been made to explore the current implementation status and hurdles regarding the Regulation (EU) 2021/784. Lastly, the analysis could only be cemented through recommending reforms at administrative and legislative level in the EU for efficient mitigation of online terrorism and associated threats. It is need of hour to enact such laws, statutes and regulations that not only accurately defines the illegal or terrorist content but also enables the Internet Services Providers to have clear litmus test for such content along with the authority to be given to the Internet Services Providers and other regulatory authorities to struck down content falling under the criterion set for the online terrorist conten

Current Approaches to Terrorist and Violent Extremist Content Among the Global Top 50 Online Content-sharing Services

This report provides an overview of the policies and procedures for addressing terrorist and violent extremist content (TVEC) across the global top 50 online content sharing services, with a focus on transparency. It finds that only five of the 50 services issue transparency reports specifically about TVEC, and these five services take different approaches in their reports. These services use different definitions of terrorism and violent extremism, report different types of information, use different measurement and estimation methods, and issue reports with varying frequency and on different timetables. The low number of reporting companies and the variation in what, when and how they report make it impossible to get a clear and complete cross-industry perspective on the efficacy of companies’ measures to combat TVEC online and how they may affect human rights. This situation could be improved if more companies issued TVEC transparency reports and included more comparable information

Counter-Terrorism, Ethics and Technology

This open access book brings together a range of contributions that seek to explore the ethical issues arising from the overlap between counter-terrorism, ethics, and technologies. Terrorism and our responses pose some of the most significant ethical challenges to states and people. At the same time, we are becoming increasingly aware of the ethical implications of new and emerging technologies. Whether it is the use of remote weapons like drones as part of counter-terrorism strategies, the application of surveillance technologies to monitor and respond to terrorist activities, or counterintelligence agencies use of machine learning to detect suspicious behavior and hacking computers to gain access to encrypted data, technologies play a significant role in modern counter-terrorism. However, each of these technologies carries with them a range of ethical issues and challenges. How we use these technologies and the policies that govern them have broader impact beyond just the identification and response to terrorist activities. As we are seeing with China, the need to respond to domestic terrorism is one of the justifications for their rollout of the “social credit system.” Counter-terrorism technologies can easily succumb to mission creep, where a technology’s exceptional application becomes normalized and rolled out to society more generally. This collection is not just timely but an important contribution to understand the ethics of counter-terrorism and technology and has far wider implications for societies and nations around the world

Advanced Research Workshop: Terrorists’ Use of the Internet: Assessment and Response: Final Report

This report contains findings from the Advanced Research Workshop supported by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme on terrorists’ use of the Internet, held at Dublin City University on 27th-29th June 2016. The event was co-organised by the Cyberterrorism Project and the VOX-POL Network of Excellence. The workshop consisted of a total of 31 presentations, followed by a roundtable discussion during which participants formulated a set of recommendations. 60 delegates attended the symposium, from 13 different countries, including researchers and representatives from NATO HQ, NATO CCD-COE, UNICRI, the European Defence Agency, the Bavarian Police Academy and the Italian Carabinieri. This report provides summaries of each of the presentations and presents the workshop’s final recommendation

A systematic survey of online data mining technology intended for law enforcement

As an increasing amount of crime takes on a digital aspect, law enforcement bodies must tackle an online environment generating huge volumes of data. With manual inspections becoming increasingly infeasible, law enforcement bodies are optimising online investigations through data-mining technologies. Such technologies must be well designed and rigorously grounded, yet no survey of the online data-mining literature exists which examines their techniques, applications and rigour. This article remedies this gap through a systematic mapping study describing online data-mining literature which visibly targets law enforcement applications, using evidence-based practices in survey making to produce a replicable analysis which can be methodologically examined for deficiencies

Counter-Terrorism, Ethics and Technology

This open access book brings together a range of contributions that seek to explore the ethical issues arising from the overlap between counter-terrorism, ethics, and technologies. Terrorism and our responses pose some of the most significant ethical challenges to states and people. At the same time, we are becoming increasingly aware of the ethical implications of new and emerging technologies. Whether it is the use of remote weapons like drones as part of counter-terrorism strategies, the application of surveillance technologies to monitor and respond to terrorist activities, or counterintelligence agencies use of machine learning to detect suspicious behavior and hacking computers to gain access to encrypted data, technologies play a significant role in modern counter-terrorism. However, each of these technologies carries with them a range of ethical issues and challenges. How we use these technologies and the policies that govern them have broader impact beyond just the identification and response to terrorist activities. As we are seeing with China, the need to respond to domestic terrorism is one of the justifications for their rollout of the “social credit system.” Counter-terrorism technologies can easily succumb to mission creep, where a technology’s exceptional application becomes normalized and rolled out to society more generally. This collection is not just timely but an important contribution to understand the ethics of counter-terrorism and technology and has far wider implications for societies and nations around the world