SPoT: Representing the Social, Spatial, and Temporal Dimensions of Human Mobility with a Unifying Framework

Modeling human mobility is crucial in the analysis and simulation of opportunistic networks, where contacts are exploited as opportunities for peer-topeer message forwarding. The current approach with human mobility modeling has been based on continuously modifying models, trying to embed in them the mobility properties (e.g., visiting patterns to locations or specific distributions of inter-contact times) as they came up from trace analysis. As a consequence, with these models it is difficult, if not impossible, to modify the features of mobility or to control the exact shape of mobility metrics (e.g., modifying the distribution of inter-contact times). For these reasons, in this paper we propose a mobility framework rather than a mobility model, with the explicit goal of providing a exible and controllable tool for modeling mathematically and generating simulatively different possible features of human mobility. Our framework, named SPoT, is able to incorporate the three dimensions - spatial, social, and temporal - of human mobility. The way SPoT does it is by mapping the different social communities of the network into different locations, whose members visit with a configurable temporal pattern. In order to characterize the temporal patterns of user visits to locations and the relative positioning of locations based on their shared users, we analyze the traces of real user movements extracted from three location-based online social networks (Gowalla, Foursquare, and Altergeo). We observe that a Bernoulli process effectively approximates user visits to locations in the majority of cases and that locations that share many common users visiting them frequently tend to be located close to each other. In addition, we use these traces to test the exibility of the framework, and we show that SPoT is able to accurately reproduce the mobility behavior observed in traces. Finally, relying on the Bernoulli assumption for arrival processes, we provide a throughout mathematical analysis of the controllability of the framework, deriving the conditions under which heavy-tailed and exponentially-tailed aggregate inter-contact times (often observed in real traces) emerge

Dissecting magnetar variability with Bayesian hierarchical models

Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behaviour, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favoured models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here, we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture aftershocks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling augmented with reversible jumps between models with different numbers of parameters, we characterise the posterior distributions of the model parameters and the number of components per burst. We relate these model parameters to physical quantities in the system, and show for the first time that the variability within a burst does not conform to predictions from ideas of self-organised criticality. We also examine how well the properties of the spikes fit the predictions of simplified cascade models for the different trigger mechanisms.Comment: accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal; code available at https://bitbucket.org/dhuppenkothen/magnetron, data products at http://figshare.com/articles/SGR_J1550_5418_magnetron_data/129242

How Random Incidents Affect Travel-Time Distributions

We present a novel analytical model to approximate the travel-time distribution of vehicles traversing a freeway corridor that experiences random quality of service degradations due to non-recurrent incidents. The proposed model derives the generating function of travel times in closed-form using clearance time, incident frequency and severity, and other ordinary traffic characteristics. We validate the model using data from a freeway corridor where weather events and traffic accidents serve as the principal causes of service degradation. The resulting model is equivalent in performance to widely used methodologies while uniquely providing a clear connection on how incidents affect travel time distribution. With this connection, the model readily yields travel time reliability measures for alternative roadway behaviors, providing crucial information for long-term planning

Dynamic network loading: a stochastic differentiable model that derives link state distributions

We present a dynamic network loading model that yields queue length distributions, accounts for spillbacks, and maintains a differentiable mapping from the dynamic demand on the dynamic queue lengths. The model also captures the spatial correlation of all queues adjacent to a node, and derives their joint distribution. The approach builds upon an existing stationary queueing network model that is based on finite capacity queueing theory. The original model is specified in terms of a set of differentiable equations, which in the new model are carried over to a set of equally smooth difference equations. The physical correctness of the new model is experimentally confirmed in several congestion regimes. A comparison with results predicted by the kinematic wave model (KWM) shows that the new model correctly represents the dynamic build-up, spillback, and dissipation of queues. It goes beyond the KWM in that it captures queue lengths and spillbacks probabilistically, which allows for a richer analysis than the deterministic predictions of the KWM. The new model also generates a plausible fundamental diagram, which demonstrates that it captures well the stationary flow/density relationships in both congested and uncongested conditions

The speed of range shifts in fragmented landscapes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD