Large-scale unit commitment under uncertainty: an updated literature survey

The Unit Commitment problem in energy management aims at finding the optimal production schedule of a set of generation units, while meeting various system-wide constraints. It has always been a large-scale, non-convex, difficult problem, especially in view of the fact that, due to operational requirements, it has to be solved in an unreasonably small time for its size. Recently, growing renewable energy shares have strongly increased the level of uncertainty in the system, making the (ideal) Unit Commitment model a large-scale, non-convex and uncertain (stochastic, robust, chance-constrained) program. We provide a survey of the literature on methods for the Uncertain Unit Commitment problem, in all its variants. We start with a review of the main contributions on solution methods for the deterministic versions of the problem, focussing on those based on mathematical programming techniques that are more relevant for the uncertain versions of the problem. We then present and categorize the approaches to the latter, while providing entry points to the relevant literature on optimization under uncertainty. This is an updated version of the paper "Large-scale Unit Commitment under uncertainty: a literature survey" that appeared in 4OR 13(2), 115--171 (2015); this version has over 170 more citations, most of which appeared in the last three years, proving how fast the literature on uncertain Unit Commitment evolves, and therefore the interest in this subject

Optimization Approaches for Electricity Generation Expansion Planning Under Uncertainty

In this dissertation, we study the long-term electricity infrastructure investment planning problems in the electrical power system. These long-term capacity expansion planning problems aim at making the most effective and efficient investment decisions on both thermal and wind power generation units. One of our research focuses are uncertainty modeling in these long-term decision-making problems in power systems, because power systems\u27 infrastructures require a large amount of investments, and need to stay in operation for a long time and accommodate many different scenarios in the future. The uncertainties we are addressing in this dissertation mainly include demands, electricity prices, investment and maintenance costs of power generation units. To address these future uncertainties in the decision-making process, this dissertation adopts two different optimization approaches: decision-dependent stochastic programming and adaptive robust optimization. In the decision-dependent stochastic programming approach, we consider the electricity prices and generation units\u27 investment and maintenance costs being endogenous uncertainties, and then design probability distribution functions of decision variables and input parameters based on well-established econometric theories, such as the discrete-choice theory and the economy-of-scale mechanism. In the adaptive robust optimization approach, we focus on finding the multistage adaptive robust solutions using affine policies while considering uncertain intervals of future demands. This dissertation mainly includes three research projects. The study of each project consists of two main parts, the formulation of its mathematical model and the development of solution algorithms for the model. This first problem concerns a large-scale investment problem on both thermal and wind power generation from an integrated angle without modeling all operational details. In this problem, we take a multistage decision-dependent stochastic programming approach while assuming uncertain electricity prices. We use a quasi-exact solution approach to solve this multistage stochastic nonlinear program. Numerical results show both computational efficient of the solutions approach and benefits of using our decision-dependent model over traditional stochastic programming models. The second problem concerns the long-term investment planning with detailed models of real-time operations. We also take a multistage decision-dependent stochastic programming approach to address endogenous uncertainties such as generation units\u27 investment and maintenance costs. However, the detailed modeling of operations makes the problem a bilevel optimization problem. We then transform it to a Mathematic Program with Equilibrium Constraints (MPEC) problem. We design an efficient algorithm based on Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition to solve this multistage stochastic MPEC problem. The last problem concerns a multistage adaptive investment planning problem while considering uncertain future demand at various locations. To solve this multi-level optimization problem, we take advantage of affine policies to transform it to a single-level optimization problem. Our numerical examples show the benefits of using this multistage adaptive robust planning model over both traditional stochastic programming and single-level robust optimization approaches. Based on numerical studies in the three projects, we conclude that our approaches provide effective and efficient modeling and computational tools for advanced power systems\u27 expansion planning

Models and Solutions of Resource Allocation Problems based on Integer Linear and Nonlinear Programming

In this thesis we deal with two problems of resource allocation solved through a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming approach and a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Chance Constraint Programming approach. In the first part we propose a framework to model general guillotine restrictions in two dimensional cutting problems formulated as Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILP). The modeling framework requires a pseudo-polynomial number of variables and constraints, which can be effectively enumerated for medium-size instances. Our modeling of general guillotine cuts is the first one that, once it is implemented within a state of-the-art MIP solver, can tackle instances of challenging size. Our objective is to propose a way of modeling general guillotine cuts via Mixed Integer Linear Programs (MILP), i.e., we do not limit the number of stages (restriction (ii)), nor impose the cuts to be restricted (restriction (iii)). We only ask the cuts to be guillotine ones (restriction (i)). We mainly concentrate our analysis on the Guillotine Two Dimensional Knapsack Problem (G2KP), for which a model, and an exact procedure able to significantly improve the computational performance, are given. In the second part we present a Branch-and-Cut algorithm for a class of Nonlinear Chance Constrained Mathematical Optimization Problems with a finite number of scenarios. This class corresponds to the problems that can be reformulated as Deterministic Convex Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming problems, but the size of the reformulation is large and quickly becomes impractical as the number of scenarios grows. We apply the Branch-and-Cut algorithm to the Mid-Term Hydro Scheduling Problem, for which we propose a chance-constrained formulation. A computational study using data from ten hydro plants in Greece shows that the proposed methodology solves instances orders of magnitude faster than applying a general-purpose solver for Convex Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Problems to the deterministic reformulation, and scales much better with the number of scenarios

Forecasting tools and probabilistic scheduling approach incorporatins renewables uncertainty for the insular power systems industry

Nowadays, the paradigm shift in the electricity sector and the advent of the smart grid, along with the growing impositions of a gradual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, pose numerous challenges related with the sustainable management of power systems. The insular power systems industry is heavily dependent on imported energy, namely fossil fuels, and also on seasonal tourism behavior, which strongly influences the local economy. In comparison with the mainland power system, the behavior of insular power systems is highly influenced by the stochastic nature of the renewable energy sources available. The insular electricity grid is particularly sensitive to power quality parameters, mainly to frequency and voltage deviations, and a greater integration of endogenous renewables potential in the power system may affect the overall reliability and security of energy supply, so singular care should be placed in all forecasting and system operation procedures. The goals of this thesis are focused on the development of new decision support tools, for the reliable forecasting of market prices and wind power, for the optimal economic dispatch and unit commitment considering renewable generation, and for the smart control of energy storage systems. The new methodologies developed are tested in real case studies, demonstrating their computational proficiency comparatively to the current state-of-the-art

Effects of fuel cost uncertainty on optimal energy flows in U.S.

The research is motivated by the need for economic efficiency and risk management in the national electric system. Stochastic costs of natural gas are introduced in a generalized network flow model of the integrated power energy system to explore the effects of uncertain fuel costs on the optimal energy flows in U.S. The fuel costs are modeled as discretely distributed random variables and a rolling two-stage approach is applied to solve the stochastic recourse problem. All the data are derived from publicly available information for the year 2002. The natural gas price forecasts by the Energy Information Administration are adapted to generate scenarios that are considered in the stochastic problem. Compared to the expected value solution from the deterministic model, the recourse problem solution obtained from the stochastic model has higher total cost, lower natural gas consumption and less subregional power trade but a flow mix which is closer to the 2002 real data. Surprisingly, increasing the uncertainty level of the scenarios leads to a recourse problem solution with slightly lower total cost but this effect may be distributed to the inaccuracy of the forecasts. The comparison demonstrates the stochastic model\u27s capability of forecasting energy flows. The stochastic model assists decision makers to better understand how the uncertain fuel costs would affect future flows within the national electric energy system

Power systems generation scheduling and optimisation using evolutionary computation techniques

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Optimal generation scheduling attempts to minimise the cost of power production while satisfying the various operation constraints and physical limitations on the power system components. The thermal generation scheduling problem can be considered as a power system control problem acting over different time frames. The unit commitment phase determines the optimum pattern for starting up and shutting down the generating units over the designated scheduling period, while the economic dispatch phase is concerned with allocation of the load demand among the on-line generators. In a hydrothermal system the optimal scheduling of generation involves the allocation of generation among the hydro electric and thermal plants so as to minimise total operation costs of thermal plants while satisfying the various constraints on the hydraulic and power system network. This thesis reports on the development of genetic algorithm computation techniques for the solution of the short term generation scheduling problem for power systems having both thermal and hydro units. A comprehensive genetic algorithm modelling framework for thermal and hydrothermal scheduling problems using two genetic algorithm models, a canonical genetic algorithm and a deterministic crowding genetic algorithm, is presented. The thermal scheduling modelling framework incorporates unit minimum up and down times, demand and reserve constraints, cooling time dependent start up costs, unit ramp rates, and multiple unit operating states, while constraints such as multiple cascade hydraulic networks, river transport delays and variable head hydro plants, are accounted for in the hydraulic system modelling. These basic genetic algorithm models have been enhanced, using quasi problem decomposition, and hybridisation techniques, resulting in efficient generation scheduling algorithms. The results of the performance of the algorithms on small, medium and large scale power system problems is presented and compared with other conventional scheduling techniques.Overseas Development Agenc

Column-generation and interior point methods applied to the long-term electric power-planning problem

Aquesta tesi s'adreça al problema de planificació de la generació elèctrica a llarg termini per a una companyia específica (SGC) que participa en un mercat liberalitzat organitzat en un pool. Els objectius de la tesi són: modelitzar aquest problema, i desenvolupar i implementar tècniques apropiades i eficients que el resolguin. Un planificació òptima a llarg termini és important, per exemple, per a la confecció de pressupostos, o per a la gestió de compres/consum de combustibles. Una altra aplicació és la de guiar la planificació a curt termini perquè aquesta tingui en compte decisions preses sota una òptica de llarg termini. La nostra proposta per a fer la planificació de la generació és optimitzar la generació esperada de cada unitat (o la unió de diverses unitats de característiques semblants) del pool per a cada interval en que dividim el llarg termini. El model bàsic per la planificació de la generació a llarg termini (LTGP) maximitza el benefici de totes les unitats del pool. La constricció més important és la satisfacció de la demanda, ja que el sistema està sempre balancejat. Utilitzem la formulació de Bloom i Gallant, la qual modela la càrrega a través d'una monòtona de càrrega per cada interval i requereix un número exponencial de constriccions lineals de desigualtat, anomenades LMCs. Altres constriccions (lineals) incloses en el model són: garantia de potència, límits en la disponibilitat de combustibles, emissions màximes de CO2 o una quota de mercat mínima per a la SGC. Una extensió d'aquest model és la planificació conjunta de l'assignació de manteniments de les unitats tèrmiques d'una SGC amb la planificació de la generació. El model conjunt és un problema quadràtic amb variables binàries i contínues. Per resoldre aquest model es proposa un parell d'heurístiques i s'ha implementat un prototipus de branch and bound en AMPL.Aquesta tesi també proposa una manera per coordinar el model LTGP proposat amb una planificació a curt termini. Es desenvolupa un model de curt que inclou els resultats de llarg termini. Donat que el model de planificació a llarg termini s'ha de resoldre sovint (principalment per passar informació acurada al model de curt), les tècniques emprades per a resoldre'l han de donar resultats fiables en un espai de temps curt. Les tècniques aplicades han estat:· Donat que les constriccions de recobriment i les fites de no negativitat defineixen un políedre convex els vèrtexs del qual són fàcils de trobar el model es transforma i les variables esdevenen els coeficients convexos que defineixen un punt. Aquest nou problema es resolt amb l'algoritme de Murtagh i Saunders, que és un procediment òptim. Aquest algoritme s'aplica sota un esquema de generació de columnes donat que el número de vèrtexs del políedre és comparable al número de constriccions. L'avantatge d'aquest mètode és que els vèrtexs es van generant a mesura que es necessiten.· L'aplicació de mètodes directes és computacionalment costós donat el número exponencial de LMCs. De totes maneres, a l'òptim només un conjunt reduït de constriccions de recobriment seran actives. Hem desenvolupat una heurística, anomenada heurística GP, la qual genera un subconjunt de constriccions, entre les quals hi ha les LMCs que són actives a l'òptim. L'heurística resol una seqüència de problemes quadràtics, els quals incrementen el número de LMCs considerades a cada iteració. Els problemes es resolen amb mètodes de punt interior que s'inicialitzen amb tècniques de warm start per tal d'accelerar la convergència cap a la nova solució. Aquest procediment resulta ser molt més eficient que el de generació de columnes. La modelització i els casos de prova estan basats en dades d'un sistema de pool pur i de mercat com ha estat a Espanya fins el juliol de 2006.This thesis presents an approach to the long-term planning of power generation for a company (SGC) participating in a liberalized market organized as a pool. The goal of this thesis is two-fold: to model the problem and to develop and implement appropriate and efficient techniques for solving it.The optimization of the long-term generation planning is important for budgeting and planning fuel acquisitions, and to give a frame where to fit short-term generation planning.Our proposal for planning long-term generation is to optimize the expected generation of each unit (or the merger of several units of the same type) in the power pool over each interval into which the long-term horizon is split.The basic model for long-term generation planning (LTGP) maximizes the profit for all the units participating in the pool. The most important constraint is matching demand, since the market always clears. The Bloom and Gallant formulation is used, which models the load with a load-duration curve for each interval and requires an exponential number of linear inequality constraints, called herein LMCs. Other (linear) constraints included in the model are: minimum generation time, limits on the availability of fuel, maximum CO2 emission limits or the market share of the SGC. This thesis also proposes the way in which coordination between the LTGP model developed and a short-term plan should be considered and provides a model for short-term electrical power planning adapted to the LTGP proposed and which includes the long-term results.Another decision that needs to be taken from a long-term point of view is the joint scheduling of thermal unit maintenances with the generation planning of a particular SGC. The results of a prototype of a Branch and Bound implemented in AMPL are included in this thesis.Long-term planning needs to be considered before short-term planning and whenever the real situation deviates from the forecasted parameters, so the techniques implemented must be efficient so as to provide reliable solutions in a short time. Two methods for handling the LMCs are proposed and compared:● A decomposition technique exploits the fact that the LMCs plus the non-negativity bounds define a convex polyhedron for each interval whose vertices are easy to find. Thus, the problem is transformed and the variables become the coefficients of a convex combination of the vertices. The transformed problem is quadratic with linear constraints, making it suitable to be solved with the Murtagh & Saunders algorithm, which gives an optimal solution. A column-generation approach is used because the number of vertices of the polyhedron is comparable to the number of LMCs. The advantage of this method is that it does not require previous computation of all of the vertices, but rather computes them as the algorithm iterates.● The application of direct methods is computationally difficult because of the exponential number of inequality LMCs. However, only a reduced subset of LMCs will be active at the optimizer. A heuristic, named GP heuristic, has been devised which is able to find a reduced set of LMCs including those that are active at the optimizer. It solves a sequence of quadratic problems in which the set of LMCs considered is enlarged at each iteration. The quadratic problems are solved with an interior point method, and warm starts are employed to accelerate the solution of the successively enlarged quadratic problems. This procedure is more efficient than the column generation one.The modeling and tests of this thesis are based on the pure pool system and market data from the Spanish system up to July 2006