Order-of-Magnitude Influence Diagrams

In this paper, we develop a qualitative theory of influence diagrams that can be used to model and solve sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative (or imprecise) information is available. Our approach is based on an order-of-magnitude approximation of both probabilities and utilities and allows for specifying partially ordered preferences via sets of utility values. We also propose a dedicated variable elimination algorithm that can be applied for solving order-of-magnitude influence diagrams

Complexity results and algorithms for possibilistic influence diagrams

In this article we present the framework of Possibilistic Influence Diagrams (PID), which allows to model in a compact form problems of sequential decision making under uncertainty, when only ordinal data on transitions likelihood or preferences are available. The graphical part of a PID is exactly the same as that of usual influence diagrams, however the semantics differ. Transition likelihoods are expressed as possibility distributions and rewards are here considered as satisfaction degrees. Expected utility is then replaced by anyone of the two possibilistic qualitative utility criteria (optimistic and pessimistic) for evaluating strategies in a PID. We then describe decision tree-based methods for evaluating PID and computing optimal strategies and we study the computational complexity of PID optimisation problems for both cases. Finally, we propose a dedicated variable elimination algorithm that can be applied to both optimistic and pessimistic cases for solving PID

Prioritising organisational circular economy strategies by applying the partial order set theory: Tool and case study

This study presents a methodology to solve circular economy multiple indicators system decision-making problems by applying the Partial Order Set Theory (POSET). To this end, a user-friendly tool was developed to allow the prioritisation of alternative scenarios or circularity strategies based on the value that each of them takes for different circular economy indicators (both quantitative and qualitative), but avoiding processes involving aggregation and weight among the indicators. The developed tool also makes it possible to model different restrictions that facilitate its adaptation to any case study and the incorporation of the results into the decision-making process. Moreover, it allows a graphical representation of the results to be obtained by using Hasse diagrams. Finally, the developed tool was validated by means of its application to a case study with the aim of prioritising circular economy strategies in an organisation belonging to the construction sector. Specifically, this organisation presented some opportunities for improvement, mainly related to the use of recycled and recirculated materials and effluents, waste recycling, energy efficiency and the proximity of suppliers, among others. The sensitivity analysis of the considered restrictions showed not only the robustness of the results obtained with the tool but also its great influence in circular economy multiple indicators decision-making solutions.Funding for open access charge: CRUE-Universitat Jaume

Multi-agent decision-making dynamics inspired by honeybees

When choosing between candidate nest sites, a honeybee swarm reliably chooses the most valuable site and even when faced with the choice between near-equal value sites, it makes highly efficient decisions. Value-sensitive decision-making is enabled by a distributed social effort among the honeybees, and it leads to decision-making dynamics of the swarm that are remarkably robust to perturbation and adaptive to change. To explore and generalize these features to other networks, we design distributed multi-agent network dynamics that exhibit a pitchfork bifurcation, ubiquitous in biological models of decision-making. Using tools of nonlinear dynamics we show how the designed agent-based dynamics recover the high performing value-sensitive decision-making of the honeybees and rigorously connect investigation of mechanisms of animal group decision-making to systematic, bio-inspired control of multi-agent network systems. We further present a distributed adaptive bifurcation control law and prove how it enhances the network decision-making performance beyond that observed in swarms

A model-driven method for the systematic literature review of qualitative empirical research

This paper explores a model-driven method for systematic literature reviews (SLRs), for use where the empirical studies found in the literature search are based on qualitative research. SLRs are an important component of the evidence-based practice (EBP) paradigm, which is receiving increasing attention in information systems (IS) but has not yet been widely-adopted. We illustrate the model-driven approach to SLRs via an example focused on the use of BPMN (Business Process Modelling Notation) in organizations. We discuss in detail the process followed in using the model-driven SLR method, and show how it is based on a hermeneutic cycle of reading and interpreting, in order to develop and refine a model which synthesizes the research findings of previous qualitative studies. This study can serve as an exemplar for other researchers wishing to carry out model-driven SLRs. We conclude with our reflections on the method and some suggestions for further researc

The integrated use of enterprise and system dynamics modelling techniques in support of business decisions

Enterprise modelling techniques support business process re-engineering by capturing existing processes and based on perceived outputs, support the design of future process models capable of meeting enterprise requirements. System dynamics modelling tools on the other hand are used extensively for policy analysis and modelling aspects of dynamics which impact on businesses. In this paper, the use of enterprise and system dynamics modelling techniques has been integrated to facilitate qualitative and quantitative reasoning about the structures and behaviours of processes and resource systems used by a Manufacturing Enterprise during the production of composite bearings. The case study testing reported has led to the specification of a new modelling methodology for analysing and managing dynamics and complexities in production systems. This methodology is based on a systematic transformation process, which synergises the use of a selection of public domain enterprise modelling, causal loop and continuous simulationmodelling techniques. The success of the modelling process defined relies on the creation of useful CIMOSA process models which are then converted to causal loops. The causal loop models are then structured and translated to equivalent dynamic simulation models using the proprietary continuous simulation modelling tool iThink