Towards Design Principles for Data-Driven Decision Making: An Action Design Research Project in the Maritime Industry

Data-driven decision making (DDD) refers to organizational decision-making practices that emphasize the use of data and statistical analysis instead of relying on human judgment only. Various empirical studies provide evidence for the value of DDD, both on individual decision maker level and the organizational level. Yet, the path from data to value is not always an easy one and various organizational and psychological factors mediate and moderate the translation of data-driven insights into better decisions and, subsequently, effective business actions. The current body of academic literature on DDD lacks prescriptive knowledge on how to successfully employ DDD in complex organizational settings. Against this background, this paper reports on an action design research study aimed at designing and implementing IT artifacts for DDD at one of the largest ship engine manufacturers in the world. Our main contribution is a set of design principles highlighting, besides decision quality, the importance of model comprehensibility, domain knowledge, and actionability of results

Scalable aggregation predictive analytics: a query-driven machine learning approach

We introduce a predictive modeling solution that provides high quality predictive analytics over aggregation queries in Big Data environments. Our predictive methodology is generally applicable in environments in which large-scale data owners may or may not restrict access to their data and allow only aggregation operators like COUNT to be executed over their data. In this context, our methodology is based on historical queries and their answers to accurately predict ad-hoc queries’ answers. We focus on the widely used set-cardinality, i.e., COUNT, aggregation query, as COUNT is a fundamental operator for both internal data system optimizations and for aggregation-oriented data exploration and predictive analytics. We contribute a novel, query-driven Machine Learning (ML) model whose goals are to: (i) learn the query-answer space from past issued queries, (ii) associate the query space with local linear regression & associative function estimators, (iii) define query similarity, and (iv) predict the cardinality of the answer set of unseen incoming queries, referred to the Set Cardinality Prediction (SCP) problem. Our ML model incorporates incremental ML algorithms for ensuring high quality prediction results. The significance of contribution lies in that it (i) is the only query-driven solution applicable over general Big Data environments, which include restricted-access data, (ii) offers incremental learning adjusted for arriving ad-hoc queries, which is well suited for query-driven data exploration, and (iii) offers a performance (in terms of scalability, SCP accuracy, processing time, and memory requirements) that is superior to data-centric approaches. We provide a comprehensive performance evaluation of our model evaluating its sensitivity, scalability and efficiency for quality predictive analytics. In addition, we report on the development and incorporation of our ML model in Spark showing its superior performance compared to the Spark’s COUNT method

A Data-informed Public Health Policy-Makers Platform

Hearing loss is a disease exhibiting a growing trend due to the number of factors, including but not limited to the mundane exposure to the noise and ever-increasing amount of older population. In the framework of a public health policymaking process, modeling of the hearing loss disease based on data is a key factor in alleviating the issues related to the disease issuing effective public health policies. First, the paper describes the steps of the data-driven policymaking process. Afterward, a scenario along with the part of the proposed platform, responsible for supporting policymaking are presented. With the aim of demonstrating the capabilities and usability of the platform for the policy-makers, some initial results of preliminary analytics are presented in a framework of a policy-making process. Ultimately, the utility of the approach is validated throughout the results of the survey which was presented to the health system policy-makers professionals involved in the policy development process in Croatia

Autoencoders for strategic decision support

In the majority of executive domains, a notion of normality is involved in most strategic decisions. However, few data-driven tools that support strategic decision-making are available. We introduce and extend the use of autoencoders to provide strategically relevant granular feedback. A first experiment indicates that experts are inconsistent in their decision making, highlighting the need for strategic decision support. Furthermore, using two large industry-provided human resources datasets, the proposed solution is evaluated in terms of ranking accuracy, synergy with human experts, and dimension-level feedback. This three-point scheme is validated using (a) synthetic data, (b) the perspective of data quality, (c) blind expert validation, and (d) transparent expert evaluation. Our study confirms several principal weaknesses of human decision-making and stresses the importance of synergy between a model and humans. Moreover, unsupervised learning and in particular the autoencoder are shown to be valuable tools for strategic decision-making