518,093 research outputs found
Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks
Social systems are in a constant state of flux with dynamics spanning from
minute-by-minute changes to patterns present on the timescale of years.
Accurate models of social dynamics are important for understanding spreading of
influence or diseases, formation of friendships, and the productivity of teams.
While there has been much progress on understanding complex networks over the
past decade, little is known about the regularities governing the
micro-dynamics of social networks. Here we explore the dynamic social network
of a densely-connected population of approximately 1000 individuals and their
interactions in the network of real-world person-to-person proximity measured
via Bluetooth, as well as their telecommunication networks, online social media
contacts, geo-location, and demographic data. These high-resolution data allow
us to observe social groups directly, rendering community detection
unnecessary. Starting from 5-minute time slices we uncover dynamic social
structures expressed on multiple timescales. On the hourly timescale, we find
that gatherings are fluid, with members coming and going, but organized via a
stable core of individuals. Each core represents a social context. Cores
exhibit a pattern of recurring meetings across weeks and months, each with
varying degrees of regularity. Taken together, these findings provide a
powerful simplification of the social network, where cores represent
fundamental structures expressed with strong temporal and spatial regularity.
Using this framework, we explore the complex interplay between social and
geospatial behavior, documenting how the formation of cores are preceded by
coordination behavior in the communication networks, and demonstrating that
social behavior can be predicted with high precision.Comment: Main Manuscript: 16 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary Information: 39
pages, 34 figure
The Value of Stock Options To Non-Executive Employees
This study empirically investigates the value employees place on stock options using information from the option exercise behavior of individuals. Employees hold options for another period if the value from holding them and reserving the right to exercise them later is higher than the value of exercising them immediately and collecting a profit equal to the stock price minus the exercise price. This simple model implies the hazard describing employee exercise behavior reveals information about the value to employees of holding options another time period. We show the parameters of this model are identified with data on multiple option grants per employee and we apply this model to the disposition of options received in the 1990s by a sample of over 2000 middle-level managers from a large, established firm outside of manufacturing. Exercise behavior is modeled using a random effects probit model of monthly exercise behavior that is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood estimation methods. Our estimates show there is substantial heterogeneity (observed and unobserved) among employees in the value they place on their options. Our estimates show most employees value their options at a value greater than the option’s Black-Scholes value
Data on face-to-face contacts in an office building suggests a low-cost vaccination strategy based on community linkers
Empirical data on contacts between individuals in social contexts play an
important role in providing information for models describing human behavior
and how epidemics spread in populations. Here, we analyze data on face-to-face
contacts collected in an office building. The statistical properties of
contacts are similar to other social situations, but important differences are
observed in the contact network structure. In particular, the contact network
is strongly shaped by the organization of the offices in departments, which has
consequences in the design of accurate agent-based models of epidemic spread.
We consider the contact network as a potential substrate for infectious disease
spread and show that its sparsity tends to prevent outbreaks of rapidly
spreading epidemics. Moreover, we define three typical behaviors according to
the fraction of links each individual shares outside its own department:
residents, wanderers and linkers. Linkers () act as bridges in the
network and have large betweenness centralities. Thus, a vaccination strategy
targeting linkers efficiently prevents large outbreaks. As such a behavior may
be spotted a priori in the offices' organization or from surveys, without the
full knowledge of the time-resolved contact network, this result may help the
design of efficient, low-cost vaccination or social-distancing strategies
Adaptive intermittent control: A computational model explaining motor intermittency observed in human behavior
It is a fundamental question how our brain performs a given motor task in a real-time fashion with the slow sensorimotor system. Computational theory proposed an influential idea of feed-forward control, but it has mainly treated the case that the movement is ballistic (such as reaching) because the motor commands should be calculated in advance of movement execution. As a possible mechanism for operating feed-forward control in continuous motor tasks (such as target tracking), we propose a control model called "adaptive intermittent control" or "segmented control," that brain adaptively divides the continuous time axis into discrete segments and executes feed-forward control in each segment. The idea of intermittent control has been proposed in the fields of control theory, biological modeling and nonlinear dynamical system. Compared with these previous models, the key of the proposed model is that the system speculatively determines the segmentation based on the future prediction and its uncertainty. The result of computer simulation showed that the proposed model realized faithful visuo-manual tracking with realistic sensorimotor delays and with less computational costs (i.e., with fewer number of segments). Furthermore, it replicated "motor intermittency", that is, intermittent discontinuities commonly observed in human movement trajectories. We discuss that the temporally segmented control is an inevitable strategy for brain which has to achieve a given task with small computational (or cognitive) cost, using a slow control system in an uncertain variable environment, and the motor intermittency is the side-effect of this strategy
Inferring land use from mobile phone activity
Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of people within a city is
crucial to many planning applications. Obtaining data to create required
knowledge, currently involves costly survey methods. At the same time
ubiquitous mobile sensors from personal GPS devices to mobile phones are
collecting massive amounts of data on urban systems. The locations,
communications, and activities of millions of people are recorded and stored by
new information technologies. This work utilizes novel dynamic data, generated
by mobile phone users, to measure spatiotemporal changes in population. In the
process, we identify the relationship between land use and dynamic population
over the course of a typical week. A machine learning classification algorithm
is used to identify clusters of locations with similar zoned uses and mobile
phone activity patterns. It is shown that the mobile phone data is capable of
delivering useful information on actual land use that supplements zoning
regulations.Comment: To be presented at ACM UrbComp201
Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures
Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality
of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The
arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and
insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile
technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices
endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed
behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the
delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real
time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate
such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a
large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of
daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show
the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population
participates. These preliminary results demonstrate the potential of mobile
technology to complement other measures like vaccination and quarantines
against disease epidemics.Comment: Presented at NetMob 2013, Bosto
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