On the Robotic Uncertainty of Fully Autonomous Traffic

Recent transportation research suggests that autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to improve traffic flow efficiency as they are able to maintain smaller car-following distances. Nevertheless, being a unique class of ground robots, AVs are susceptible to robotic errors, particularly in their perception module, leading to uncertainties in their movements and an increased risk of collisions. Consequently, conservative operational strategies, such as larger headway and slower speeds, are implemented to prioritize safety over traffic capacity in real-world operations. To reconcile the inconsistency, this paper proposes an analytical model framework that delineates the endogenous reciprocity between traffic safety and efficiency that arises from robotic uncertainty in AVs. Car-following scenarios are extensively examined, with uncertain headway as the key parameter for bridging the single-lane capacity and the collision probability. A Markov chain is then introduced to describe the dynamics of the lane capacity, and the resulting expected collision-inclusive capacity is adopted as the ultimate performance measure for fully autonomous traffic. With the help of this analytical model, it is possible to support the settings of critical parameters in AV operations and incorporate optimization techniques to assist traffic management strategies for autonomous traffic

Methods for Utilizing Connected Vehicle Data in Support of Traffic Bottleneck Management

The decision to select the best Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) technologies from available options has always been a challenging task. The availability of connected vehicle/automated vehicle (CV/AV) technologies in the near future is expected to add to the complexity of the ITS investment decision-making process. The goal of this research is to develop a multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) framework to support traffic agencies’ decision-making process with consideration of CV/AV technologies. The decision to select between technology alternatives is based on identified performance measures and criteria, and constraints associated with each technology. Methods inspired by the literature were developed for incident/bottleneck detection and back-of-queue (BOQ) estimation and warning based on connected vehicle (CV) technologies. The mobility benefits of incident/bottleneck detection with different technologies were assessed using microscopic simulation. The performance of technology alternatives was assessed using simulated CV and traffic detector data in a microscopic simulation environment to be used in the proposed MCDA method for the purpose of alternative selection. In addition to assessing performance measures, there are a number of constraints and risks that need to be assessed in the alternative selection process. Traditional alternative analyses based on deterministic return on investment analysis are unable to capture the risks and uncertainties associated with the investment problem. This research utilizes a combination of a stochastic return on investment and a multi-criteria decision analysis method referred to as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to select between ITS deployment alternatives considering emerging technologies. The approach is applied to an ITS investment case study to support freeway bottleneck management. The results of this dissertation indicate that utilizing CV data for freeway segments is significantly more cost-effective than using point detectors in detecting incidents and providing travel time estimates one year after CV technology becomes mandatory for all new vehicles and for corridors with moderate to heavy traffic. However, for corridors with light, there is a probability of CV deployment not being effective in the first few years due to low measurement reliability of travel times and high latency of incident detection, associated with smaller sample sizes of the collected data

Customizing Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks to Individual Drivers and Traffic Conditions

This dissertation studies the ability to individualize vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) in order to improve safety. Adapting a VANET to both its individual drivers\u27 characteristics and traffic conditions enables it to transmit in a smart manner to other vehicles. This improvement is now possible due to the progress that is being made in VANETs. To accomplish this adaptation, our approach is to use VANET data to learn drivers\u27 characteristics. This information along with the traffic data, can be used to customize the VANETs to individual drivers. In this dissertation, we show that this process benefits all the drivers by reducing the collision probability of the network of vehicles. Our Monte Carlo simulation results show that this approach achieves more than 25% reduction in traffic collision probability compared to the case with optimized equal vehicular communication access for each vehicle. Therefore, it has a considerable advantage over other systems. First, we propose a method to estimate the distribution of a driver\u27s characteristics by employing the VANET data. This is essential for our intended application in accident warning systems and vehicular communications. Second, this estimated distribution and the traffic information are used to adapt the transmission rates of vehicles to each driver\u27s safety level in order to reduce the number of collisions in the network. We derive the packet success probability for a chain of vehicles by taking multi-user interference, path loss, and fading into account. Then, by considering the delay constraints and types of potential collisions, we approximate the required channel access probabilities and illustrate the collision probability. Third, since the packet success probability and thus communication interference affect the collision probability noticeably, we examine various interference models and their effect on the collision probability with more scrutiny. In our analysis, two signal propagation models with and without carrier sensing are considered for the dissemination of periodic safety messages, and it is illustrated how employing more accurate interference models results in a higher level of safety (lower collision probability)for the network. Finally, there is an unclear relation between the intensity of an ad hoc network (the number of vehicles in a certain area) and the performance of the system. Hence, we study a reverse approach in which the geometry (intensity) of the unmanned aerial vehicles varies and certain requirements such as safety and coverage need to be satisfied. The numerical results show that safety and interference limits the coverage of the network and there is only a relatively small range of intensities which satisfy all three

Theoretical Limits on Cooperative Positioning in Mixed Traffic

A promising solution to meet the demands on accurate positioning and real-time situational awareness in future intelligent transportation systems (ITSs) is cooperative positioning, where vehicles share sensor information over the wireless channel. However, the sensing and communication technologies required for this will be gradually introduced into the market, and it is, therefore, important to understand what performance we can expect from cooperative positioning systems as we transition to a more modern vehicle fleet. In this paper, we study what effects a gradual market penetration has on cooperative positioning applications, through a Fisher information analysis. The simulation results indicate that solely introducing a small fraction of automated vehicles with high-end sensors significantly improves the positioning quality but is not enough to meet the stringent demands posed by safety critical ITS applications. Furthermore, we find that retrofitting vehicles with low-cost satellite navigation receivers and communication have marginal impact when the positioning requirements are stringent and that the longitudinal road position can be estimated more accurately than lateral

A Resilient Control Approach to Secure Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) with an Application on Connected Vehicles

The objective of this dissertation is to develop a resilient control approach to secure Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) against cyber-attacks, network failures and potential physical faults. Despite being potentially beneficial in several aspects, the connectivity in CPSs poses a set of specific challenges from safety and reliability standpoint. The first challenge arises from unreliable communication network which affects the control/management of overall system. Second, faulty sensors and actuators can degrade the performance of CPS and send wrong information to the controller or other subsystems of the CPS. Finally, CPSs are vulnerable to cyber-attacks which can potentially lead to dangerous scenarios by affecting the information transmitted among various components of CPSs. Hence, a resilient control approach is proposed to address these challenges. The control approach consists of three main parts:(1) Physical fault diagnostics: This part makes sure the CPS works normally while there is no cyber-attacks/ network failure in the communication network; (2) Cyber-attack/failure resilient strategy: This part consists of a resilient strategy for specific cyber-attacks to compensate for their malicious effects ; (3) Decision making algorithm: The decision making block identifies the specific existing cyber-attacks/ network failure in the system and deploys corresponding control strategy to minimize the effect of abnormality in the system performance. In this dissertation, we consider a platoon of connected vehicle system under Co-operative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) strategy as a CPS and develop a resilient control approach to address the aforementioned challenges. The first part of this dissertation investigates fault diagnostics of connected vehicles assuming ideal communication network. Very few works address the real-time diagnostics problem in connected vehicles. This study models the effect of different faults in sensors and actuators, and also develops fault diagnosis scheme for detectable and identifiable faults. The proposed diagnostics scheme is based on sliding model observers to detect, isolate and estimate faults in the sensors and actuators. One of the main advantages of sliding model approach lies in applicability to nonlinear systems. Therefore, the proposed method can be extended for other nonlinear cyber physical systems as well. The second part of the proposed research deals with developing strategies to maintain performance of cyber-physical systems close to the normal, in the presence of common cyber-attacks and network failures. Specifically, the behavior of Dedicated Short-Range Communication (DSRC) network is analyzed under cyber-attacks and failures including packet dropping, Denial of Service (DOS) attack and false data injection attack. To start with, packet dropping in network communication is modeled by Bernoulli random variable. Then an observer based modifying algorithm is proposed to modify the existing CACC strategy against the effect of packet dropping phenomena. In contrast to the existing works on state estimation over imperfect communication network in CPS which mainly use either holding previous received data or Kalman filter with intermittent observation, a combination of these two approaches is used to construct the missing data over packet dropping phenomena. Furthermore, an observer based fault diagnostics based on sliding mode approach is proposed to detect, isolate and estimate sensor faults in connected vehicles platoon. Next, Denial of Service (DoS) attack is considered on the communication network. The effect of DoS attack is modeled as an unknown stochastic delay in data delivery in the communication network. Then an observer based approach is proposed to estimate the real data from the delayed measured data over the network. A novel approach based on LMI theory is presented to design observer and estimate the states of the system via delayed measurements. Next, we explore and alternative approach by modeling DoS with unknown constant time delay and propose an adaptive observer to estimate the delay. Furthermore, we study the effects of system uncertainties on the DoS algorithm. In the third algorithm, we considered a general CPS with a saturated DoS attack modeled with constant unknown delay. In this part, we modeled the DoS via a PDE and developed a PDE based observer to estimate the delay as well as states of the system while the only available measurements are delayed. Furthermore, as the last cyber-attack of the second part of the dissertation, we consider false data injection attack as the fake vehicle identity in the platoon of vehicles. In this part, we develop a novel PDE-based modeling strategy for the platoon of vehicles equipped with CACC. Moreover, we propose a PDE based observer to detect and isolate the location of the false data injection attack injected into the platoon as fake identity. Finally, the third part of the dissertation deals with the ongoing works on an optimum decision making strategy formulated via Model Predictive Control (MPC). The decision making block is developed to choose the optimum strategy among available strategies designed in the second part of the dissertation

Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Energy and Traffic Flow: Optimal Control Design and Verification Through Field Testing

This dissertation assesses eco-driving effectiveness in several key traffic scenarios that include passenger vehicle transportation in highway driving and urban driving that also includes interactions with traffic signals, as well as heavy-duty line-haul truck transportation in highway driving with significant road grade. These studies are accomplished through both traffic microsimulation that propagates individual vehicle interactions to synthesize large-scale traffic patterns that emerge from the eco-driving strategies, and through experimentation in which real prototyped connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are utilized to directly measure energy benefits from the designed eco-driving control strategies. In particular, vehicle-in-the-loop is leveraged for the CAVs driven on a physical test track to interact with surrounding traffic that is virtually realized through said microsimulation software in real time. In doing so, model predictive control is designed and implemented to create performative eco-driving policies and to select vehicle lane, as well as enforce safety constraints while autonomously driving a real vehicle. Ultimately, eco-driving policies are both simulated and experimentally vetted in a variety of typical driving scenarios to show up to a 50% boost in fuel economy when switching to CAV drivers without compromising traffic flow. The first part of this dissertation specifically assesses energy efficiency of connected and automated passenger vehicles that exploit intention-sharing sourced from both neighboring vehicles in a highway scene and from traffic lights in an urban scene. Linear model predictive control is implemented for CAV motion planning, whereby chance constraints are introduced to balance between traffic compactness and safety, and integer decision variables are introduced for lane selection and collision avoidance in multi-lane environments. Validation results are shown from both large-scale microsimulation and through experimentation of real prototyped CAVs. The second part of this dissertation then assesses energy efficiency of automated line-haul trucks when tasked to aerodynamically platoon. Nonlinear model predictive control is implemented for motion planning, and simulation and experimentation are conducted for platooning verification under highway conditions with traffic. Then, interaction-aware and intention-sharing cooperative control is further introduced to eliminate experimentally measured platoon disengagements that occur on real highways when using only status-sharing control. Finally, the performance of automated drivers versus human drivers are compared in a point-to-point scenario to verify fundamental eco-driving impacts -- experimentally showing eco-driving to boost energy economy by 11% on average even in simple driving scenarios

Railway Capacity Enhancement with Modern Signalling Systems – A Literature Review

In times of ever stronger awareness of environmental protection and potentiation of a beneficial modal split, the railway sector with efficient asset utilization and proper investment planning has the highest chance of meeting customer expectations and attracting new users more effectively. Continuous increase in railway demand leads to an increase in the utilization of railway infrastructure, and the inevitable lack of capacity, a burning problem that many national railways are continually facing. To address it more effectively, this paper reviews available methodologies for railway capacity determination and techniques for its enhancement in the recent scientific literature. Particular focus is given to the possibility of increasing railway capacity through signalling systems and installing the European Train Control System (ETCS). The most important relationships with segments of existing research have been identified, and in line with this, the directions for a potential continuation of research are suggested

VISSIM Calibration for Urban Freeways

In urban areas, interchange spacing and the adequacy of design for weaving, merge, and diverge areas can significantly influence available capacity. Traffic microsimulation tools allow detailed analyses of these critical areas in complex locations that often yield results that differ from the generalized approach of the Highway Capacity Manual. In order to obtain valid results, various inputs should be calibrated to local conditions. This project investigated basic calibration factors for the simulation of traffic conditions within an urban freeway merge/diverge environment. By collecting and analyzing urban freeway traffic data from multiple sources, specific Iowa-based calibration factors for use in VISSIM were developed. In particular, a repeatable methodology for collecting standstill distance and headway/time gap data on urban freeways was applied to locations throughout the state of Iowa. This collection process relies on the manual processing of video for standstill distances and individual vehicle data from radar detectors to measure the headways/time gaps. By comparing the data collected from different locations, it was found that standstill distances vary by location and lead-follow vehicle types. Headways and time gaps were found to be consistent within the same driver population and across different driver populations when the conditions were similar. Both standstill distance and headway/time gap were found to follow fairly dispersed and skewed distributions. Therefore, it is recommended that microsimulation models be modified to include the option for standstill distance and headway/time gap to follow distributions as well as be set separately for different vehicle classes. In addition, for the driving behavior parameters that cannot be easily collected, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of these parameters on the capacity of the facility. The sensitivity analysis results can be used as a reference to manually adjust parameters to match the simulation results to the observed traffic conditions. A well-calibrated microsimulation model can enable a higher level of fidelity in modeling traffic behavior and serve to improve decision making in balancing need with investment