INTEGRATED ECONOMIC-HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF POLICY RESPONSES TO PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE WATER USE UNDER CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Integrated economic-hydrologic analysis of policy responses

Water is a vital resource, but also a critical limiting factor for economic and social development in many parts of the world. The recent rapid growth in human population and water use for social and economic development is increasing the pressure on water resources and the environment, as well as leading to growing conflicts among competing water use sectors (agriculture, urban, tourism, industry) and regions (Gleick et al., 2009; World Bank, 2006). In Spain, as in many other arid and semi-arid regions affected by drought and wide climate variability, irrigated agriculture is responsible for most consumptive water use and plays an important role in sustaining rural livelihoods (Varela-Ortega, 2007). Historically, the evolution of irrigation has been based on publicly-funded irrigation development plans that promoted economic growth and improved the socio-economic conditions of rural farmers in agrarian Spain, but increased environmental damage and led to excessive and inefficient exploitation of water resources (Garrido and Llamas, 2010; Varela-Ortega et al., 2010). Currently, water policies in Spain focus on rehabilitating and improving the efficiency of irrigation systems, and are moving from technocratic towards integrated water management strategies driven by the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD)

Integrated Water Resources Management Karlsruhe 2010 : IWRM, International Conference, 24 - 25 November 2010 conference proceedings

In dieser Arbeit werden dual-orthogonal, linear polarisierte Antennen für die UWB-Technik konzipiert. Das Prinzip zur Realisierung der Strahler wird vorgestellt, theoretisch und simulativ untersucht, sowie messtechnisch verifiziert. Danach werden Konzepte zur Miniaturisierung der Strahler dargelegt, die anschließend zum Aufbau von Antennengruppen verwendet werden. Die Vorteile der entwickelten Antennen werden praktisch anhand des bildgebenden Radars und des Monopuls-Radars gezeigt

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making

Small multi-purpose reservoir ensemble planning

People living in arid areas with highly variable rainfall, experience droughts and floods and often have insecure livelihoods. Small multi-purpose reservoirs are a widely used form of infrastructure for the provision of water. They supply water for domestic use, livestock watering, small scale irrigation, and other beneficial uses. The reservoirs are hydrologically linked by the streams that have been dammed. Although reservoirs store a large quantity of water and have a significant effect on downstream flows, they have rarely been considered as systems, with synergies and tradeoffs resulting from the number and density of their structures. Often reservoirs were constructed in a series of projects funded by different agencies, at different times, with little or no coordination among the implementing partners. A significant number are functioning sub-optimally and/or are falling into disrepair. This indicates that there is room for improvement in the planning, operation, and maintenance of small reservoirs. The water management institutions in Volta, Limpopo, and Sao Francisco Basins are being revamped to better serve their constituencies. We have an opportunity to collaborate with government officials, stakeholders, and farmers who are actively looking for ways to improve the planning process. The Small Reservoir Project team developed a tool kit to support the planning, development, and management of small reservoir ensembles on the basin level and the use of small multi-purpose reservoirs that are properly located, well designed, operated and maintained in sustainable fashion, and economically viable on the local/community level. There are tools to improve intervention planning, storage estimation and the analysis of the hydrology, ecology and health of small reservoirs. There ara also tools for the analysis of institutional and economic aspects of the reservoirs. The toolkit not only includes the necessary analytical instruments, but also a set of process oriented tools for improved participatory decision making. The Tool Kit is meant to be a living “document” with additional tools and experiences to be added as they are developed

The Characterisation of Water Scarcity: Developing a Storage-based Indicator Framework for the Great Ruaha River Catchment, Tanzania

This thesis addresses a fundamental lack of critical research investigating the meaning and practical application of widely used water scarcity metrics that include the Falkenmark Water Stress Index (WSI) and the Water Withdrawal to Availability (WTA) ratio. Recognising that current indicators do not account for the significant inter- and intra-annual variability in freshwater resources, this research proposes a new methodology to characterise water scarcity that explicitly considers the contribution of water storage to freshwater availability. This approach also specifically addresses common assumptions of domestic water demands (i.e. ~100 litres capita day (LCPD)) and adaptive strategies that people employ to maintain access to freshwater. Central to the arguments presented in this thesis is a case-study from the semi-arid Great Ruaha River Catchment (GRRC) in Tanzania. Application of the two metrics to the GRRC provide contrasting results, despite an absence of river discharge for an increasing period of the year. Investigating the strong inter-annual variability of freshwater availability suggests that naturally-occurring shifts in upstream hydrology may have a greater impact on downstream zero-flows than previously suggested, bringing into question the predominant narrative that livestock keepers and irrigation has constituted the primary cause for the experienced water shortages. Fieldwork, informed by a mixed-methods approach, quantifies domestic water demand in three villages to show that domestic water use is significantly lower than the assumed ~100 LCPD embedded in the WSI. Analysing the pathways to accessing the varying water available in the same villages show that development interventions which did not follow participatory approaches, failed. As a response to the resulting lack of clarity over water infrastructure ownership, informal pathways emerge through self-supply water storage systems such as hand-dug wells. Such systems are not uncommon in sub-Saharan Africa but remain inadequately represented in water scarcity metrics. Finally, the research considers what an indicator approach that is informed by inter- and intra-annual contributions of storage to freshwater availability could look like and evaluates the current limitations to its implementation

ROBUST HYDROLOGIC MODELLING FOR LAND AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN DATA-SCARCE ENVIRONMENTS

This study proposes a pre-calibration approach using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantitatively assess variability in model performance derived from input data sources in data-scarce dryland environment (the Wala catchment, Jordan 1743 km2). Eighteen scenarios combining different local and global land-use, soil and weather datasets (1979 - 2002) are constructed. Model outputs are statistically assessed against observed discharge and empirically-derived sediment load using r2, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error standard deviation ratio (RSR) and percent bias (PBIAS). Global reanalysis weather data considerably improve model performance over discontinuous local datasets, while detailed local soil data perform significantly better than global maps. The approach presented aids selection of the most robust input datasets in regions where availability and quality of data are questionable. Attempting to rationalise modelling in data-poor regions, the catchment delineation produced by the SWAT model is used to design field sampling in October 2013 of channel bed sediments and reservoir sediment cores to investigate potential relationships via geochemical analysis and provide measured sediment information that may interpret model prediction. XRF and particle size analyses were performed on all samples and the data analysed in respect of geochemical signatures. No strong evidence of discrete event-driven deposition is detected, likely due to alternating high-flood and drought periods. Variations in pollutants geochemistry are consistent with land-use pattern with relatively higher levels of Pb, Co, Cu and Cr associated with urbanised regions. Although these concentrations are mostly below thresholds for health concern, higher water and sediment loadings from these regions, as estimated by the model, may increase them. Hence, future management of water quality must be considered. The optimised and calibrated SWAT model is used to assess hypothetical and object-based integrated catchment management interventions and their implications for the useable lifetime of the Wala Dam within the context of the UN-funded BRP Project. The modelled catchment response to different scenarios varies spatially based on type and extent of application. Changes in annual loadings delivered to the Wala reservoir are linked to a simple model of dam functional lifetime to support decision-making

Refinement of modelling tools to assess potential agrohydrological impacts of climate change in southern Africa.

Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2001.Changes in climate due to anthropogenic influences are expected to affect both hydrological and agricultural systems in southern Africa. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on agrohydrological systems had been performed previously in the School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology (School of BEEH). However, refinement of these modelling tools and restructuring of the databases used was needed to enable more realistic and dynamic simulations of the impacts of changes in climate. Furthermore, it was realised that modifications and linkages of various routines would result in a faster processing time to perform climate impact assessments at the catchment scale. Baseline ("present") climatic information for this study was obtained from the School of BEEH's database. Scenarios of future climate were obtained from six General Circulation Models (GCMs). Output from the five GCMs which provided monthly climate output was used in the climate impact assessments carried out. Potential changes in variability of rainfall resulting from climate change was assessed using the daily climate output from the sixth GCM. As the spatial resolution of the climatic output from these GCMs was too coarse for use in climate impact studies the GCM output was interpolated to a finer spatial resolution. To assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources in southern Africa the ACRU hydrological modelling system was selected. The ACRU model was, however, initially modified and updated to enable more dynamic simulation of climate change. In previous hydrological studies of climate change in southern Africa Quaternary Catchments were modelled as individual, isolated catchments. To determine the potential impact of changes in climate on accumulated flows in large catchments the configuration of the Quaternary Catchments needed to be determined and this configuration used in ACRU. The changes in hydrological responses were calculated both as absolute differences between future and present values and the ratio offuture hydrological response to the present response. The large degree of uncertainty between the GCMs was reflected in the wide range of results obtained for the water resources component of this study. In addition to the climate impact studies, sensitivity and threshold studies were performed using ACRU to assess the vulnerability of regions to changes in climate. Potential change in the yields and distributions of parameters important to agriculture, such as heat units, crops, pastures and commercial tree species were assessed using simple crop models at a quarter ofdegree latitude / longitude scale. Most species were simulated to show decreases in yields and climatically suitable areas. There are many sources of uncertainties when performing climate impact assessments and the origins of these uncertainties were investigated. Lastly, potential adaptation strategies for southern Africa considering the results obtained are presented