Laux, P.

English

KITopen

1 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Climate Change impacts: challenges and opportunities for a German-Nigerian collaboration and its regional agricultural and hydrological impacts for West Africa: Challenges and opportunities for a German-Nigerian collaborationPatrick LauxInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU)Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany2 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Rainfall distribution in time and space has significant impact on water availability and socio-economy in West AfricaSevere droughts in 1970s and 1980s (i.e. Sahel zone)Rainfed agriculture highly exposed to rainfall variability70% of population depends on rainfed agricultureFood Security: severe - very severeCrucial problem for rainfed agriculture: Decision about the sowing dateSowing as early as possible to avoid wasting of valuable growth timeSowing too early may lead to crop failure and high economic lossesSolution: Prediction of Onset of the Rainy Season (ORS)MotivationGlobal climate change is expected to aggravate rainfall variability and watr scarcity in 21. Century (IPCC, 2007)3 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Required:Scientifically sound information under weak infrastructure“Challenge” West Africa4 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Case study 1: Volta Basin (Ghana & Burkina Faso)Observed signals of climate change Regional climate modeling: expected future climateImpact climate change on regional water availabilityImpact climate change on agricultural sectorCase study 2: CameroonImpact climate change on food productionConclusionsOutline5 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Research foci Volta Basin (Ghana & Burkina Faso), CameroonSimilar climate: High spatial and temporal rainfall variabilityClimate: sub-humid to aridRainy Season (Intertropical Convergence Zone ITCZ) South: bimodal (Maximum June)North: unimodal (Maximum August)0 2 4 6 8 10 12050100150200MonthRainfall amount [mm]05101520# Rainy days0 2 4 10 120102304onthRainfall amount [mm]010Rainy days515Volta Basin[mm]6 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Case study 1: Volta Basin (Ghana & Burkina Faso)Observed signals of climate change Regional climate modeling: expected future climateImpact climate change on regional water availabilityImpact climate change on agricultural sectorCase study 2: CameroonImpact climate change on food productionConclusions7 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Observed Climate Change (1961-2000)Trends in TemperatureMaximum Temperature Fada N’GourmaMean Temperature[Neumann et al., 2007]8 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Observed Climate Change (1961-2000)XYXYXYXYXYXYXYXYXYXYXY-88.7-0.4%80%-62.6-0.4%80%-93.8-0.3%80%-2 37-0 .6 9%95%-232.4-1.1 %95%-148.2-0.48%95%-277.8-1.08%90%-242.7-0.96%95%-63.5-0.38%80%-152.2-0.46%80%-156-0.55%80%-155.1-0.91%80%-109.1-0.69%95%-66.2-0.35%90%-211.9-1.07%99%Legendt rend  MP(y) [m m/25 y]trend  MP(y) [%  of 25-yea r averaged sum] s ignif icance [% ]XY not significantSignificant decrease of annual rainfall amount ≈ 25% decrease annual rainfall amount within 25 yearsTrends annual rainfall amounts9 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Case study 1: Volta Basin (Ghana & Burkina Faso)Observed signals of climate changeRegional climate modeling: expected future climateImpact climate change on regional water availabilityImpact climate change on agricultural sectorCase study 2: CameroonImpact climate change on food productionConclusionsOutline10 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Modeling (Dynamical Downscaling)ECHAM4 & MM5Scenario IS92aWaSiM• Orography• Land use• Soil properties• Aquifer properties• Flownet structure• Temperature• Precipitation• Wind• Relative Humidity• RadiationEvapotranspiration Surface runoff Groundwater flowInfiltration1 km resolution2.8°→ 9 km resolution11 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Mean Monthly Temperature (Domain 3)272829303132333435Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonthTemperature [°C]1991-2000 2030-2039Mean annual temperature change [%] Mean monthly temperature [°C] (2030-2039 vs. 1991-2000)Temperature Change till 2039Regional Climate Modeling12 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Monthly mean precipitation [mm]and change [%] (2030-2039 vs. 1991-2000)Mean annual precipitation change [%]Precipitation Change till 2039Significant decreases in April Regional Climate Modeling13 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Hydrological ModelingECHAM4 & MM5 WaSiM• Orography• Land use• Soil properties• Aquifer properties• Flownet structure• Temperature• Precipitation• Wind• Relative Humidity• RadiationEvapotranspiration Surface runoff Groundwater flowInfiltration1 km resolutionJoint Regional Climate-Hydrology Simulations2.8°→ 9 km resolution14 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Impact Climate Change on Water Balance-30-20-100102030405060Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec[%]precipitation total runoff evapotranspiration soil moisturePrecipitationSoil moistureRunoff EvapotranspirationRegional Hydrological ModelingChanges till 203915 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Case study 1: Volta Basin (Ghana & Burkina Faso)Observed climate change Regional climate modeling: expected future climateImpact Climate Change on regional water availabilityImpact Climate Change on agricultural sectorCase study 2: CameroonImpact Climate Change on food productionConclusionsOutline16 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Agricultural Decision Support System DSSAgricultural Decisison Support for the Volta BasinAgricultural meaningful definitionOnset of the Rainy Season (ORS)NowcastingORSForecastingORSClimate ChangeRainfall VariabilityRisk MapsLinear DiskriminantAnalysisWeather PatternAnalysisLinear Regression-AnalysisStat. Downscaling +Stoch. Simulation[Laux et al., 2007, 2008 & 2009]17 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000100110120130140150160170180190ORS date [DOY] TrendORS date [DOY]Climate Change and Onset of the Rainy Season→ Significant delay of the ORS up to 30 days for 1961-200118 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Onset of the Rainy Season in future?100 150 200 2500246810PC1PC4PC5PC3PC2100 150 200 250 30002468101240 70 100 130 160024681040 70 100 130 160 19002468101240 60 80 100 120 140 1600246810→ +31 d→ +39 d→ +5 d→ +34 d→ +37 d2011-2040, A1B1961-1990Delay [days]→ Expected Delay ORS dates (μ) → Variability ORS dates (δ) remains similarTraditional planting rules (sowing dates) must be adopted in future! 19 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Case study 1: Volta Basin (Ghana & Burkina Faso)Observed climate change Regional climate modeling: expected future climateImpact CC on regional water availabilityImpact Climate Change on agricultural sectorCase study 2: CameroonImpact Climate Change on food productionConclusions20 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Impact Sowing Date on Crop Yield CropSystManagement• Sowing date• Ploughing• FertilizationSoil propertiesClimate• Temperature• Precipitation• Radiation• CO2Crop Yield (1979-2003)Joint Climate Crop Modelling (only useful for rainfed agriculture)Agr. approachOnset Rainy Season[Laux et al., 2008]“optimal sowing date”21 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)GarouaYaoundéBatouriNgaoundereBamendaApproach ORS vs. Traditional Sowing Rules1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-1012 Maize Groundnut(YieldORS-Yieldtrad) (t/ha)Year-2-1012 Precipitation anomaly→ Crop Yield (1979-2003) increased up to 20% using ORS approachIn work: Impact of future CC on regional food production in Cameroon22 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Some conclusionsSpatially distributed change of precipitation (between -20 and +50%) in the Volta BasinIncrease in the rainy seasonDecrease at the onset of the rainy seasonSignificant delay of ORS expected in futureAgricultural DSS could significantly increase crop yield (food security) in a cost-effective waySpatially distributed climate information useful for different sectorse.g. health sector  23 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Challenges and opportunities for a German-Nigerian collaborationDevelopment Agro- Hydro-Meteorological Decision Support System for Ghana & Burkina FasoStatus: finalizedEvaluation of methods for Cameroon Status: ongoingApplication for Nigeria:             German-Nigerian cooperationStatus: wanted?24 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Grote, R., Lehmann, E., Brümmer, C., Brüggemann, N., Szarzynski, J., Kunstmann, H. (2008) Modeling and observation of biosphere- atmosphere interactions in natural savannah and agriculture in Burkina Faso - West Africa, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, accepted for publicationWagner, S., Kunstmann, H., Bárdossy, A., Conrad, C., Colditz, R. (2008) Water balance estimations of poorly gauged catchments in West Africa using dynamical downscaling of meteorological fields and remote sensing information, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, doi:10.1016/j.pce.2008.04.002Marx, A., Kunstmann, H., Burose, D., Moene, A. (2008) Uncertainty analysis for satellite derived sensible heat fluxes and scintillometer measurements over Savannah environment and comparison to mesoscale meteorological simulation results, Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.11.009Ahrends, H., Mast, M., Rodgers, Ch., Kunstmann, H. (2007) Coupled Hydrological-Economic Modelling for Optimised Irrigated Cultivation in a Semi-arid Catchment of West Africa, Environmental Modelling and Software, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.08.002Jung, G., Kunstmann H. (2007): High-resolution Regional Climate Modelling for the Volta Basin of West Africa, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2006JD007951, 17 pagesLaux P., Kunstmann H., Bárdossy A. (2007): Predicting the Regional Onset of the Rainy Season in West Africa, International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1542Kunstmann, H., Jung, G., Wagner, S., Clottey, H. (2007) Integration of atmospheric sciences and hydrology for the development of decision  support systems in sustainable water management, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, doi:10.1016/j.pce.2007.04.010Kunstmann, H., Jung, G. (2007) Influence of soil moisture and land use change on precipitation in West Africa, International Journal of River Management, Vol. 5, issue 1, 9-16.Neumann, R., Jung, G., Laux, P., Kunstmann, H. (2007) Climate trends of temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Volta Basin of West Africa, International Journal of River Management, Vol. 5, issue 1, 17-30.Wagner, S., Kunstmann, H., Bárdossy, A. (2006) Model based distributed water balance monitoring of the White Volta catchment in West Africa through coupled meteorological- hydrological simulations, Advances in Geosciences, 9, 39-44.Jung, G., Kunstmann H. (2007): Modelling regional climate change and the impact on surface and sub-surface hydrology in the Volta Basin (West Africa). IAHS publication 313, Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty for sustainable water resources management, pp. 150-157Laux P., Kunstmann H., Bárdossy A. (2007): Linking West African Monsoon’s onset with atmospheric circulation patterns. IAHS publication 313, Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty for sustainable water resources management, pp. 40-50Kunstmann, H., Jung, G. (2003) Investigation of feedback mechanisms between soil moisture, land use and precipitation in West Africa, IAHS publication 280: Water Resources Systems – Water Availability and Global Change, pp. 149-159. Laux, P., Wagner, S. Wagner, A., Jacobeit, J., Bárdossy A., Kunstmann, H. (2009): Modelling daily precipitation features in the Volta Basin in West Africa; Int. Journal of Climatology; International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1852.Further InformationThank youfor your attenti n!25 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)What can be done to help farmers? Evaluation & Improvement of existing tools (further projects)Capacity building at a very early stage of collaborationReading the rains: intra-annual time scaleSpreading the risk (alternatives)Irrigation strategiesDrought resistant speciesDSS for rainfed agriculture …26 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)27 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)CatchmentHydrology:Δx ≈ 1km…100mGCMsAtmosphere & OceanΔx ≈ 300…100kmRCMsΔx ≈ 50…10kmDynamic downscaling by RCMsHydrologyRegional Climate Modelling: Downscaling28 | P. Laux | Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU) | 26.03.09KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Momentum conservationEnergy conservationGas lawConservation water massEnergy conservation at land surfacePrecipitation physicsSoil water infiltrationSoil temperature diffusionAir mass conservationRegional Climate Modeling

Climate change impacts: challenges and opportunities for a German-Nigerian collaboration and its regional agricultural and hydrological impacts for West Africa: challenges and opportunities for a German-Nigerian collaboration

https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/230076129/3815499

Climate change impacts: challenges and opportunities for a German-Nigerian collaboration and its regional agricultural and hydrological impacts for West Africa: challenges and opportunities for a German-Nigerian collaboration

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

KITopen