Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective

The aim of this paper is to develop a framework for modeling conditional loss distributions through the introduction of risk factor dynamics. Asset value changes of a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks from the perspective of default (and hence loss). Default probabilities are driven primarily by how firms are tied to business cycles, both domestic and foreign, and how business cycles are linked across countries. The model is able to control for firm-specific heterogeneity in an explicitly interdependent global context, as well as to generate multi-period forecasts of the entire loss distribution, conditional on specific macroeconomic scenarios. The approach can be used, for example, to compute the effects of a hypothetical negative equity price shock in South East Asia on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio with global exposures over one or more quarters. Our conditional modeling framework is thus a step towards joint consideration of market and credit risk. The approach has several other features of particular relevance for risk managers, such as the exploration of scale and symmetry of shocks, and the effect of non-normality on credit risk. We show that the effects of such shocks on losses are asymmetric and non-proportional, reflecting the highly non-linear nature of the credit risk model. Non-normal innovations such as Student t generate expected and unexpected losses which increase the fatter the tails of the innovations.Risk management, economic interlinkages, loss forecasting, default correlation

Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective

We develop a framework for modeling conditional loss distributions through the introduction of risk factor dynamics. Asset value changes of a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks. Default probabilities are driven primarily by how firms are tied to business cycles, both domestic and foreign, and how business cycles are linked across countries. The model is able to control for firm-specific heterogeneity as well as generate multi-period forecasts of the entire loss distribution, conditional on specific macroeconomic scenarios.risk management, economic interlinkages, loss forecasting, default correlation

The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions

This paper develops a financial stress index for the United States, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI), which provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that could indicate it. The index is based on daily public-market data collected from four sectors of the fi nancial markets—the credit, foreign exchange, equity, and interbank markets. A dynamic weighting method is employed to capture changes in the relative importance of these four sectors as they occur. In addition, the design of the index allows the origin of the stress to be identified. We compare the CFSI to alternative indexes, using a detailed benchmarking methodology, and show how the CFSI can be applied to systemic stress monitoring and early warning system design. To that end, we investigate alternative stress-signaling thresholds and frequency regimes and then establish optimal frequencies for filtering out market noise and idiosyncratic episodes. Finally, we quantify a powerful CFSI-based rating system that assigns a probability of systemic stress to ranges of CFSI outcomes.Systemic risk ; Risk assessment

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view

Global liquidity expansion has been very dynamic since 2001. Contrary to conventional wisdom, high money growth rates have not coincided with a concurrent rise in goods prices. At the same time, however, asset prices have increased sharply, significantly outpacing the subdued development in consumer prices. This paper examines the interactions between money, goods and asset prices at the global level. Using aggregated data for major OECD countries, our VAR results support the view that different price elasticities on asset and goods markets explain the recently observed relative price change between asset classes and consumer goods. --Global liquidity,inflation control,monetary policy transmission,asset prices

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of the article is to promote future empirical research that might help to prevent bank failures and financial crises.financial crises; banking failures; operations research; early warning methods; leading indicators; subprime markets

Solvency II - An important case in Applied VaR

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an extremely popular risk measure and many financial companies have successfully used it to manage their risks. Recent developments towards a general single European financial regulation, lead to a great increase in the use of VaR. At least, for European Bank and Insurance industry, VaR is no longer an optional risk management tool, but it became mandatory. In this chapter we focus on the Insurance business and discuss the use of VaR as it has been proposed in the context of the Solvency II (undergoing) negotiations. Our goals are, on the one hand, to present the underlying assumptions of the models that have been proposed in the Quantitative Impact Studies (QIS) and, on the other hand, to suggest alternative VaR implementations, based upon estimation methods and firm specific characteristics. Our suggestions may be used to develop internal models as suggested in Solvency II context. Finally, we analyze the case a of Portuguese insurer operating in the motor branch and compare QIS and internal model VaR implementations. In our concrete application, (one year horizon) capital requirements are similar under the two alternatives, allowing us to conclude for the robustness of the models proposed in QIS.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risks and the nature of firm heterogeneity. The theoretical results obtained indicate that if firm-specific risk exposures (including their default thresholds) are heterogeneous but come from a common parameter distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction through active credit portfolio management. However, if the firm risk exposures are draws from different parameter distributions, say for different sectors or countries, then further risk reduction is possible, even asymptotically, by changing the portfolio weights. In either case, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to underestimation of expected losses. But, once expected losses are controlled for, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to overestimation of risk, whether measured by unexpected loss or value-at-risk. The theoretical results are confirmed empirically using returns and credit ratings for firms in the U.S. and Japan across seven sectors. Ignoring parameter heterogeneity results in far riskier credit portfolios.risk management, correlated defaults, heterogeneity, diversification, portfolio choice

Analysing banking sector conditions - how to use macro-prudential indicators

This paper presents the methodological and statistical framework for macro-prudential analysis of the financial condition of the EU banking sector that has been adopted by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). The framework is also a central component of broader financial stability assessments carried out by the ECB in co-operation with national authorities. The framework has three main building blocks, which draw on a large number of macro-prudential indicators. The first block is designed for assessing the financial condition of the banking sector. The second building block provides a framework for analysing potential sources of risk and vulnerability to which banks are exposed and an assessment of the importance of related exposures. The final part of the analysis deals with the resilience of banks vis-à-vis these different sources of risk and vulnerability. Analysing the impact of the identified risks on banks’ financial condition is the ultimate objective of the ESCB banking sector stability analysis.Financial stability, Banking sector, Macro-prudential analysis and indicators, Financial sector statistics.

Determinants of European banks' engagement in loan securitization

We analyze collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions by European banks (1997 - 2004), trying to identify firm-specific and macroeconomic factors influencing an institution's securitization decision. CLO issuance seems to be an appropriate funding tool for large banks with high risk and low liquidity. However, risk transfer turns out to be limited in the extremes. Controlling for fixed effects, we find that fixed costs of securitization are surmountable also for smaller institutions. Interestingly, commercial banks seem to use loan securitization to access capital-market based businesses and the associated fee income. Regulatory capital arbitrage does not appear to have driven the market. -- Trotz des rasanten Wachstums des Marktes für Kreditrisikotransfer sind die Motive der Banken für die Verbriefung von Kreditportfolios noch nicht vollständig geklärt. Kreditverbriefungen führen zwar zu höherer Liquidität, einer Reduktion von Kredit- und Zinsrisiken, einer Steigerung von Provisionseinkommen, möglicherweise auch einer Verbesserung der Kapitalstruktur, jedoch entscheiden sich einige Banken trotzdem gegen eine Strukturierung und Weiterreichung ihrer Kreditportfolios. Unter den Nachteilen der Verbriefung werden unter anderem die relativ hohen fixen Kosten der erstmaligen Errichtung einer Verbriefungsstruktur sowie eventuelle Steuernachteile von nicht auf der Bilanz gehaltenen Krediten genannt. Weiterhin ermöglicht das neue Basel-II Regelwerk keine ?Arbitrage regulatorischen Eigenkapitals? via Kreditverbriefung mehr, anders als die weniger risikosensitive Eigenkapitalunterlegung unter den alten Basel-Richtlinien. Unsere Studie analysiert ?Collateralized Loan Obligation? (CLO) Transaktionen von Europäischen Banken in den Jahren 1997-2004. Ziel ist es, Faktoren zu isolieren, die die Entscheidung einer Bank, Kredite zu verbriefen, beeinflusst haben. Während wir einen Einfluss regulatorischer Arbitrage nicht vollkommen ausschließen können, zeigt unsere Studie, dass die wesentlichen Bestimmungsfaktoren vielmehr individuelle Faktoren der Banken sind. So ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass eine Bank Kredite verbrieft, umso höher, je größer die Bank, je geringer ihre Liquidität und je höher ihr erwartetes Kreditrisiko ist. Kreditverbriefungen werden offensichtlich als Möglichkeit des Kreditrisikotransfers genutzt. Allerdings zeigt sich, dass Banken mit dem höchsten Kreditrisiko ihre Verbriefungsaktivitäten mit zunehmendem Risiko einstellen, so dass die Risikotransferfunktion nur begrenzt zu nutzen zu sein scheint. Für am Aktienmarkt notierte Banken treffen obige Aussagen noch stärker zu. Interessanterweise zeigt sich hier sogar ein ?negativer? regulatorischer Arbitrageeffekt : Banken mit niedrigem regulatorischem Eigenkapital verbriefen weniger Kredite als Banken mit höherem Eigenkapital. Die neuen Eigenkapitalrichtlinien nach Basel II sollten daher das zukünftige Wachstum des Kreditrisikotransfermarktes nicht beeinträchtigen. Bemerkenswerterweise scheint auch die Bankengröße eine weniger wichtige Rolle zu spielen als zunächst gedacht. Auch kleinere Banken sind somit in der Lage, die mit einer Kreditverbriefung verbundenen Fixkosten zu tragen. Es ist zu vermuten, dass gerade traditionelle Kreditbanken die Verbriefung von Kreditportfolios unter anderem auch nutzen, um indirekt dem ?investment-banking? verwandte Geschäftsbereiche und die entsprechenden Provisionseinkommen zu erschließen.Securitization,credit risk transfer,collateralized loan obligations