KOMPARASI ALGORITMA C4.5 DAN C4.5 BERBASIS PSO UNTUK PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENGGUNAAN BBM PERBULAN PADA KANTOR DINAS LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DAN KEBERSIHAN KABUPATEN LOMBOK TIMUR

East Lombok Regency is one of the second level regions in West Nusa Tenggara Province which is located on the east side of Lombok Island. The capital city of East Lombok Regency is the city of Selong, where all government agencies are based in this city. One of them is the Department of Environment and Hygiene of East Lombok Regency. In carrying out operational duties at the Office of Environment and Hygiene the operational vehicle requires that the fuel oil is a subsidy from the government. Therefore, the use of BBM every day must be recorded properly so that it can be predicted the amount of fuel usage every month. However, the Office of the Environment and Hygiene Office has difficulty in processing such data in large quantities. Predicted information on fuel use is needed by the head of the agency to assist in making decisions or policies. Of these problems the right data mining technique to use is classification. One method of classification of data mining is the decition tree algorithm (C4.5) or called the decision tree. The decition tree (C4.5) algorithm has weaknesses in reading large amounts of data, so researchers use weighting by applying Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for attribute selection to increase the accuracy of C4.5.Thus the researcher will utilize data mining software in applying a comparison of the decition tree (C4.5) and C4.5 algorithms based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to get the best accuracy value in predicting the amount of monthly use of fuel oil at the Service Office Environment and Cleanliness of East Lombok Regency.DOI : 10.29408/jit.v2i1.117

Model Klasifikasi Kelayakan Kredit Koperasi Karyawan dengan Algoritma Decision Tree

Koperasi adalah badan USAha yang beranggotakan orang-orang atau badan hukum koperasi yang melandaskan kegiatannya berdasarkan prinsip koperasi sekaligus sebagai gerakan ekonomi rakyat yang berdasarkan asas kekeluargaan. Prosedur pemberian kredit kepada anggota akan sangat berpengaruh terhadap tumbuh kembangnya USAha yang dijalankan oleh sebuah koperasi. Klasifikasi adalah jenis analisis data yang dapat membantu orang memprediksi label kelas dari sampel yang akan diklasifikasikan. Salah satu teknik klasifikasi adalah pohon keputusan (decision tree). Pohon (tree) adalah sebuah struktur data yang terdiri dari simpul (node) dan rusuk (edge). Penelitian ini adalah penelitian eksperimen. Desain eksperimen yang digunakan adalah Cross Standard Industry Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan akurasi dari algoritma Decision Tree sebesar 92,28% untuk memodelkan kelayakan kredit sebuah koperasi karyawan

An Investigation Of The Effect Of Variable Reduction On Classification Accuracy Rates Of Consumer Loans

The profitability of loan granting institutions depends largely on the institutions’ ability to accurately evaluate credit risk. Their goal is to maximize income by issuing as many good loans to consumers as possible while minimizing losses associated with bad loans. Financial institutions have been using various computational intelligence methods and statistical techniques to improve credit risk prediction accuracy. This paper examines historical data from consumer loans issued by a German bank to individuals. The data consists of the financial attributes of each customer and includes a mixture of loans that the customers paid off and defaulted upon. This paper examines and compares the classification effectiveness of four computational intelligence techniques: 1) logistic regression (LR), 2) neural networks (NNs), 3) support vector machines (SVM), and 4) k-nearest neighbor (kNN) on three data sets to predict whether a consumer defaulted or paid off a loan. The first data set contains a full set of 20 input variables. The second and third data sets contain a reduced set of ten and six variables, respectively. The results from computer simulation show a limited effect of variable reduction on improvement in the classification performance

The Feasibility of Credit Using C4.5 Algorithm Based on Particle Swarm Optimization Prediction

Credit is a belief that one is given to a person or other entity which is concerned in the future will fulfill all the obligations previously agreed. The objective of research is necessary to do credit analysis to determine the feasibility of a credit crunch, through credit analysis results, it can be seen whether the customer is feasible or not. The methods are is used to predict credit worthiness is by using two models, models classification algorithm C4.5 and C4.5 classification algorithm model based Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). After testing with these two models found that the result C4.5 classification algorithm generates a value of 90.99% accuracy and AUC value of 0.911 to the level diagnostics Classification Excellent, but after the optimization with C4.5 classification algorithm based on Particle Swarm Optimization accuracy values amounted to 91.18% and the AUC value of 0.913 to the level of diagnosis Excellent Classification. These both methods have different accuracy level of 0.18%

The Classification Performance of Multiple Methods and Datasets: Cases from the Loan Credit Scoring Domain

Decisions to extend credit to potential customers are complex, risky and even potentially catastrophic for the credit granting institution and the broader economy as underscored by credit failures in the late 2000s. Thus, the ability to accurately assess the likelihood of default is an important issue. In this paper the authors contrast the classification accuracy of multiple computational intelligence methods using five datasets obtained from five different decision contexts in the real world. The methods considered are: logistic regression (LR), neural network (NN), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (kNN), and decision tree (DT). The datasets have various characteristics with respect to the number of cases, the number and type of attributes, the extent of missing values as well as different ratios for bad loans/good loans. Using areas under ROC charts as well as the classification accuracy rates for overall, bad loans, and good loans the performances of six methods across five datasets and the five datasets across the methods are examined to find if there are significant differences between the methods and datasets. Our results reveal some interesting findings which may be useful to practitioners. Even though no method consistently outperformed any other method using the above metrics on all datasets, this study provides some guidelines as to the most appropriate methods suitable for each specific data set. In addition, the study finds that customer financial attributes are much more relevant than the personal, social, or employment attributes for predictive accuracy

Decision Support Systems for Risk Assessment in Credit Operations Against Collateral

With the global economic crisis, which reached its peak in the second half of 2008, and before a market shaken by economic instability, financial institutions have taken steps to protect the banks’ default risks, which had an impact directly in the form of analysis in credit institutions to individuals and to corporate entities. To mitigate the risk of banks in credit operations, most banks use a graded scale of customer risk, which determines the provision that banks must do according to the default risk levels in each credit transaction. The credit analysis involves the ability to make a credit decision inside a scenario of uncertainty and constant changes and incomplete transformations. This ability depends on the capacity to logically analyze situations, often complex and reach a clear conclusion, practical and practicable to implement. Credit Scoring models are used to predict the probability of a customer proposing to credit to become in default at any given time, based on his personal and financial information that may influence the ability of the client to pay the debt. This estimated probability, called the score, is an estimate of the risk of default of a customer in a given period. This increased concern has been in no small part caused by the weaknesses of existing risk management techniques that have been revealed by the recent financial crisis and the growing demand for consumer credit.The constant change affects several banking sections because it prevents the ability to investigate the data that is produced and stored in computers that are too often dependent on manual techniques. Among the many alternatives used in the world to balance this risk, the provision of guarantees stands out of guarantees in the formalization of credit agreements. In theory, the collateral does not ensure the credit return, as it is not computed as payment of the obligation within the project. There is also the fact that it will only be successful if triggered, which involves the legal area of the banking institution. The truth is, collateral is a mitigating element of credit risk. Collaterals are divided into two types, an individual guarantee (sponsor) and the asset guarantee (fiduciary). Both aim to increase security in credit operations, as an payment alternative to the holder of credit provided to the lender, if possible, unable to meet its obligations on time. For the creditor, it generates liquidity security from the receiving operation. The measurement of credit recoverability is a system that evaluates the efficiency of the collateral invested return mechanism. In an attempt to identify the sufficiency of collateral in credit operations, this thesis presents an assessment of smart classifiers that uses contextual information to assess whether collaterals provide for the recovery of credit granted in the decision-making process before the credit transaction become insolvent. The results observed when compared with other approaches in the literature and the comparative analysis of the most relevant artificial intelligence solutions, considering the classifiers that use guarantees as a parameter to calculate the risk contribute to the advance of the state of the art advance, increasing the commitment to the financial institutions.Com a crise econômica global, que atingiu seu auge no segundo semestre de 2008, e diante de um mercado abalado pela instabilidade econômica, as instituições financeiras tomaram medidas para proteger os riscos de inadimplência dos bancos, medidas que impactavam diretamente na forma de análise nas instituições de crédito para pessoas físicas e jurídicas. Para mitigar o risco dos bancos nas operações de crédito, a maioria destas instituições utiliza uma escala graduada de risco do cliente, que determina a provisão que os bancos devem fazer de acordo com os níveis de risco padrão em cada transação de crédito. A análise de crédito envolve a capacidade de tomar uma decisão de crédito dentro de um cenário de incerteza e mudanças constantes e transformações incompletas. Essa aptidão depende da capacidade de analisar situações lógicas, geralmente complexas e de chegar a uma conclusão clara, prática e praticável de implementar. Os modelos de Credit Score são usados para prever a probabilidade de um cliente propor crédito e tornar-se inadimplente a qualquer momento, com base em suas informações pessoais e financeiras que podem influenciar a capacidade do cliente de pagar a dívida. Essa probabilidade estimada, denominada pontuação, é uma estimativa do risco de inadimplência de um cliente em um determinado período. A mudança constante afeta várias seções bancárias, pois impede a capacidade de investigar os dados que são produzidos e armazenados em computadores que frequentemente dependem de técnicas manuais. Entre as inúmeras alternativas utilizadas no mundo para equilibrar esse risco, destacase o aporte de garantias na formalização dos contratos de crédito. Em tese, a garantia não “garante” o retorno do crédito, já que não é computada como pagamento da obrigação dentro do projeto. Tem-se ainda, o fato de que esta só terá algum êxito se acionada, o que envolve a área jurídica da instituição bancária. A verdade é que, a garantia é um elemento mitigador do risco de crédito. As garantias são divididas em dois tipos, uma garantia individual (patrocinadora) e a garantia do ativo (fiduciário). Ambos visam aumentar a segurança nas operações de crédito, como uma alternativa de pagamento ao titular do crédito fornecido ao credor, se possível, não puder cumprir suas obrigações no prazo. Para o credor, gera segurança de liquidez a partir da operação de recebimento. A mensuração da recuperabilidade do crédito é uma sistemática que avalia a eficiência do mecanismo de retorno do capital investido em garantias. Para tentar identificar a suficiência das garantias nas operações de crédito, esta tese apresenta uma avaliação dos classificadores inteligentes que utiliza informações contextuais para avaliar se as garantias permitem prever a recuperação de crédito concedido no processo de tomada de decisão antes que a operação de crédito entre em default. Os resultados observados quando comparados com outras abordagens existentes na literatura e a análise comparativa das soluções de inteligência artificial mais relevantes, mostram que os classificadores que usam garantias como parâmetro para calcular o risco contribuem para o avanço do estado da arte, aumentando o comprometimento com as instituições financeiras