A hierarchical approach to multi-project planning under uncertainty

We survey several viewpoints on the management of the planning complexity of multi-project organisations under uncertainty. A positioning framework is proposed to distinguish between different types of project-driven organisations, which is meant to aid project management in the choice between the various existing planning approaches. We discuss the current state of the art of hierarchical planning approaches both for traditional manufacturing and for project environments. We introduce a generic hierarchical project planning and control framework that serves to position planning methods for multi-project planning under uncertainty. We discuss multiple techniques for dealing with the uncertainty inherent to the different hierarchical stages in a multi-project organisation. In the last part of this paper we discuss two cases from practice and we relate these practical cases to the positioning framework that is put forward in the paper

A hierarchical approach to multi-project planning under uncertainty.

We survey several viewpoints on the management of the planning complexity of multi-project organisations under uncertainty. A positioning framework is proposed to distinguish between different types of project-driven organisations, which is meant to aid project management in the choice between the various existing planning approaches. We discuss the current state of the art of hierarchical planning approaches both for traditional manufacturing and for project environments. We introduce a generic hierarchical project planning and control framework that serves to position planning methods for multi-project planning under uncertainty. We discuss multiple techniques for dealing with the uncertainty inherent to the different hierarchical stages in a multi-project organisation. In the last part of this paper we discuss two cases from practice and we relate these practical cases to the positioning framework that is put forward in the paper.Choice; Complexity; Framework; Hierarchical models; Management; Manufacturing; Methods; Multi-project organisations; Planning; Project management; Project planning; Uncertainty;

Small-scale (≤6 kWe) stand-alone and grid-connected photovoltaic, wind, hydroelectric, biodiesel, and wood gasification system's simulated technical, economic, and mitigation analyses for rural regions in Western Australia

This research develops models and simulations of technical performance, net emission reductions, and discounted market values of thirteen small-scale (≤6 kWe) renewable energy projects. The research uses a simple methodology suitable for small private entities and governments to compare alternative investment options for both climate change mitigation and adaptation in the southwest of Western Australia. The system simulation and modelling results indicate that privately-owned, small-scale, grid-connected renewable energy systems were not competitive options for private entities relative to sourcing electricity from electricity networks, despite subsidies. The total discounted capital and operating costs, combined with the minimal mitigation potentials of the small-scale renewable energy systems resulted in unnecessarily high electricity costs and equivalent carbon prices, relative to grid-connection and large-scale clean energy systems. In contrast, this research suggests that small-scale renewable energy systems are cost-effective for both private entities and governments and exhibit good mitigation potentials when installed in remote locations far from the electricity network, mostly displacing diesel capacity

Financing Capture Ready Coal-Fired Power Plants in China by Issuing Capture Options

‘Capture Ready’ is a design concept enabling fossil fuel plants to be retrofitted more economically with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies, however financing the cost of capture ready can be problematic, especially in the developing world. We propose that fossil fuel plants issue tradable Capture Options to acquire financing. The Capture Option concept could move CCS forward politically in countries such as China, speed up CCS technology development, help Capture Ready investors diversify risk, and offer global warming investors an alternative investment opportunity. As a detailed case study, we assess the value of a Capture Option and Capture Ready plant for a 600 MW supercritical pulverized coal power plant in China, using a cash flow model with Monte-Carlo simulations. The gross value of Capture Ready varies from CNY3m ($0.4m) to CNY633m ($84.4m) at an 8% discount rate and the Capture Option is valued at CNY113m ($15.1m) to CNY1255m ($167.3m) for two of the four scenarios analyzed

Optimization of fuzzy analogy in software cost estimation using linguistic variables

One of the most important objectives of software engineering community has been the increase of useful models that beneficially explain the development of life cycle and precisely calculate the effort of software cost estimation. In analogy concept, there is deficiency in handling the datasets containing categorical variables though there are innumerable methods to estimate the cost. Due to the nature of software engineering domain, generally project attributes are often measured in terms of linguistic values such as very low, low, high and very high. The imprecise nature of such value represents the uncertainty and vagueness in their elucidation. However, there is no efficient method that can directly deal with the categorical variables and tolerate such imprecision and uncertainty without taking the classical intervals and numeric value approaches. In this paper, a new approach for optimization based on fuzzy logic, linguistic quantifiers and analogy based reasoning is proposed to improve the performance of the effort in software project when they are described in either numerical or categorical data. The performance of this proposed method exemplifies a pragmatic validation based on the historical NASA dataset. The results were analyzed using the prediction criterion and indicates that the proposed method can produce more explainable results than other machine learning methods.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures; Journal of Systems and Software, 2011. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1112.3877 by other author

Carbon Capture; Transport and Storage in Europe: A Problematic Energy Bridge to Nowhere?

This paper is a follow up of the SECURE-project, financed by the European Commission to study “Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainties, Risks and Economic Implications”. It addresses the perspectives of, and the obstacles to a CCTS-roll out, as stipulated in some of the scenarios. Our main hypothesis is that given the substantial technical and institutional uncertainties, the lack of a clear political commitment, and the available alternatives of low-carbon technologies, CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in the future energy mix; it is even less likely to be an “energy bridge” into a low-carbon energy futureCarbon Capture, Transport, Storage

Estimating, planning and managing Agile Web development projects under a value-based perspective

Context: The processes of estimating, planning and managing are crucial for software development projects, since the results must be related to several business strategies. The broad expansion of the Internet and the global and interconnected economy make Web development projects be often characterized by expressions like delivering as soon as possible, reducing time to market and adapting to undefined requirements. In this kind of environment, traditional methodologies based on predictive techniques sometimes do not offer very satisfactory results. The rise of Agile methodologies and practices has provided some useful tools that, combined with Web Engineering techniques, can help to establish a framework to estimate, manage and plan Web development projects. Objective: This paper presents a proposal for estimating, planning and managing Web projects, by combining some existing Agile techniques with Web Engineering principles, presenting them as an unified framework which uses the business value to guide the delivery of features. Method: The proposal is analyzed by means of a case study, including a real-life project, in order to obtain relevant conclusions. Results: The results achieved after using the framework in a development project are presented, including interesting results on project planning and estimation, as well as on team productivity throughout the project. Conclusion: It is concluded that the framework can be useful in order to better manage Web-based projects, through a continuous value-based estimation and management process.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2013-46928-C3-3-

Large Scale Deployment of Renewables for Electricity Generation

Comparisons of resource assessments suggest resource constraints are not an obstacle to the large-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies. Economic analysis identifies barriers to the adoption of renewable energy sources resulting from market structure, competition in an uneven playing field and various non-market place barriers. However, even if these barriers are removed, the problem of ‘technology lock-out’ remains. The key policy response is strategic deployment coupled with increased R&D support to accelerate the pace of improvement through market experience. The paper suggests significant contributions from various technologies, but does not assess their optimal or maximal market share

Electricity and combined heat and power from municipal solid waste : theoretically optimal investment decision time and emissions trading implications

Waste management has become a great social concern for modern societies. Landfill emissions have been identified among the major contributors of global warming and climate changes with significant impact in national economies. The energy industry constitutes an additional greenhouse gas emitter, while at the same time it is characterized by significant costs and uncertain fuel prices. The above implications have triggered different policies and measures worldwide to address the management of municipal solid wastes on the one hand and the impacts from energy production on the other. Emerging methods of energy recovery from waste may address both concerns simultaneously. In this work a comparative study of co-generation investments based on municipal solid waste is presented, focusing on the evolution of their economical performance over time. A real-options algorithm has been adopted investigating different options of energy recovery from waste: incineration, gasification and landfill biogas exploitation. The financial contributors are identified and the impact of greenhouse gas trading is analysed in terms of financial yields, considering landfilling as the baseline scenario. The results indicate an advantage of combined heat and power over solely electricity production. Gasification, has failed in some European installations. Incineration on the other hand, proves to be more attractive than the competing alternatives, mainly due to its higher power production efficiency, lower investment costs and lower emission rates. Although these characteristics may not drastically change over time, either immediate or irreversible investment decisions might be reconsidered under the current selling prices of heat, power and CO2 allowances

Risk management in a mega-project: the Universal EXPO 2015 case

The paper analyses the literature on risk management in mega-projects suggesting possible mitigation actions to be considered in the stakeholders' management. EXPO 2015 represents a perfect project to understand the strength of a rigorous methodological approach to uncertainty and the need for a mature consciousness at managerial level on these topics. Analysing real available data on this project, the number of visitors appears overestimated, so, by adopting a framework, called SHAMPU, the paper quantifies the relative impact and provides possible mitigation actions. Practical actions crossing the risk management phases in mega projects proposed by literature are suggested in the conclusions