7,567 research outputs found
Convergence of Gaussian Process Regression with Estimated Hyper-parameters and Applications in Bayesian Inverse Problems
This work is concerned with the convergence of Gaussian process regression. A
particular focus is on hierarchical Gaussian process regression, where
hyper-parameters appearing in the mean and covariance structure of the Gaussian
process emulator are a-priori unknown, and are learnt from the data, along with
the posterior mean and covariance. We work in the framework of empirical Bayes,
where a point estimate of the hyper-parameters is computed, using the data, and
then used within the standard Gaussian process prior to posterior update. We
provide a convergence analysis that (i) holds for any continuous function
to be emulated; and (ii) shows that convergence of Gaussian process regression
is unaffected by the additional learning of hyper-parameters from data, and is
guaranteed in a wide range of scenarios. As the primary motivation for the work
is the use of Gaussian process regression to approximate the data likelihood in
Bayesian inverse problems, we provide a bound on the error introduced in the
Bayesian posterior distribution in this context
Coordinate Transformation and Polynomial Chaos for the Bayesian Inference of a Gaussian Process with Parametrized Prior Covariance Function
This paper addresses model dimensionality reduction for Bayesian inference
based on prior Gaussian fields with uncertainty in the covariance function
hyper-parameters. The dimensionality reduction is traditionally achieved using
the Karhunen-\Loeve expansion of a prior Gaussian process assuming covariance
function with fixed hyper-parameters, despite the fact that these are uncertain
in nature. The posterior distribution of the Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve coordinates is
then inferred using available observations. The resulting inferred field is
therefore dependent on the assumed hyper-parameters. Here, we seek to
efficiently estimate both the field and covariance hyper-parameters using
Bayesian inference. To this end, a generalized Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansion is
derived using a coordinate transformation to account for the dependence with
respect to the covariance hyper-parameters. Polynomial Chaos expansions are
employed for the acceleration of the Bayesian inference using similar
coordinate transformations, enabling us to avoid expanding explicitly the
solution dependence on the uncertain hyper-parameters. We demonstrate the
feasibility of the proposed method on a transient diffusion equation by
inferring spatially-varying log-diffusivity fields from noisy data. The
inferred profiles were found closer to the true profiles when including the
hyper-parameters' uncertainty in the inference formulation.Comment: 34 pages, 17 figure
A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Frame Representation
In many signal processing problems, it may be fruitful to represent the
signal under study in a frame. If a probabilistic approach is adopted, it
becomes then necessary to estimate the hyper-parameters characterizing the
probability distribution of the frame coefficients. This problem is difficult
since in general the frame synthesis operator is not bijective. Consequently,
the frame coefficients are not directly observable. This paper introduces a
hierarchical Bayesian model for frame representation. The posterior
distribution of the frame coefficients and model hyper-parameters is derived.
Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are subsequently proposed to sample
from this posterior distribution. The generated samples are then exploited to
estimate the hyper-parameters and the frame coefficients of the target signal.
Validation experiments show that the proposed algorithms provide an accurate
estimation of the frame coefficients and hyper-parameters. Application to
practical problems of image denoising show the impact of the resulting Bayesian
estimation on the recovered signal quality
Probabilistic Numerics and Uncertainty in Computations
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for
numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and
solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their
calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by
numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much
contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science
and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with
large and complex data has led to a renewed focus on the management of
numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical
methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show
that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be
adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical
performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic
numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical
imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally,
we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework
for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of
numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimisers and differential equation
solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in
computations.Comment: Author Generated Postprint. 17 pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl
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