CHECKING THE PRICE TAG ON CATASTROPHE: THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON UNDER NON-LINEAR CLIMATE RESPONSE

Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — the marginal social damage from a ton of emitted carbon — has tended to focus on “best guess” scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high-damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of non-linear climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the thermohaline circulation; the dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above “best guess” levels. We find that incorporating these impacts can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of 20. Furthermore, our results suggest that the exclusive focus on thermohaline circulation collapse in the non-linear climate response literature is unwarranted, because other potential non-linear climate responses appear to be significantly more costly.climate change, catastrophe, non-linearity, impacts

Modeling and control of a plastic film manufacturing web process

This paper is concerned with the modelling of aplastic film manufacturing process and the development and implementation of a model-based Cross-Directional (CD) controller. The model is derived from first-principles and some empirical relationships. The final validated nonlinear model could provide a useful off-line platform for developing control and monitoring algorithms.A new controller is designed which has a similar structureto that of Internal Model Control (IMC) with the addition ofan observer whose gain is designed to minimise process andmodel mis-match. The observer gain is obtained by solving amulti-objective optimisation problem through the application of a genetic algorithm. The controller is applied to the nonlinear model and simulation results are presented demonstrating improvements that can be achieved by the proposed controller over two existing CD controllers

PICES Press, Vol. 15, No. 2, July 2007

Contents [Individual sections are downloadable from the official URL link listed below]: PICES Science in 2007 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2007 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.1 Mb) FUTURE - A milestone reached but our task is not done (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) International symposium on "Reproductive and Recruitment Processes of Exploited Marine Fish Stocks" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Recent results of the micronekton sampling inter-calibration experiment (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2007 PICES workshop on "Measuring and monitoring primary productivity in the North Pacific" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2007 Harmful Algal Bloom Section annual workshop events (pdf, 0.1 Mb) A global approach for recovery and sustainability of marine resources in Large Marine Ecosystems (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Highlights of the PICES Sixteenth Annual Meeting (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Ocean acidification of the North Pacific Ocean (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Workshop on NE Pacific Coastal Ecosystems (2008 Call for Salmon Survival Forecasts) (pdf, 0.1 Mb) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2007 (pdf, 0.4 Mb) PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.4 Mb) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf, 0.3 Mb) PICES Interns (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Election results at PICES (pdf, 0.2 Mb) A new PICES award for monitoring and data management activities (pdf, < 0.1 Mb

Toxicity of three comercial tannins to the nuisance invasive species Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857): implications for control

Adding biocides to water is one strategy to control macrofouling organisms. A natural biocide that helps to prevent/control macrofouling of Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857) on human installations is one way to minimize environmental impacts of different control strategies. Laboratory tests were carried out to evaluate effects of three commercial tannis preparations (ECOTEC®-UA, ECOTEC®-L and ECOTEC®-MC) on the survival of two life-history stages (larvae and adults) of L. fortunei. In addition tests were performed on two non-target species, a crustacean Daphnia magna and a plant Lactuca sativa, to evaluate effects of these tannins on the aquatic environment. The larvae of L. fortunei were more vulnerable to the concentrations of the three tannins than adults. The two nontarget species were not affected at concentrations that were effective for larvae. These results suggest that these products could be used as biocides to control macrofouling caused by L. fortunei.Fil: Pereyra, Patricio Javier. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Bulus Rossini, Gustavo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Química. Centro de Investigaciones del Medio Ambiente; ArgentinaFil: Darrigran, Gustavo Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Argentin

The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND

The integrated assessment model FUND 2.8n is applied in an analysis of the overall economic consequences in a scenario of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Monetized market and non-market impacts of changes in environmental conditions following a THC collapse are determined for 207 individual countries. Eight different response patterns can be identified. The dominant pattern is that a THC shutdown has an offsetting effect on the underlying warming trend. Depending on whether the impacts of warming are initially beneficial or detrimental, the economic effects of a THC collapse show distinct regional variability. Key economic sectors affected in a THC shutdown scenario are water resources and energy consumption, as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among health impacts. The maximum, national impact of a collapse of the THC turns out to be of the magnitude of a few per cent of GDP, but the global impact is much smaller. Considering the low probability of occurrence, a THC shutdown does not call for drastic action at present.Fisheries, climate change

Modeling of the northern hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle and glaciological sensitivity

We present a new three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model of the northern hemisphere to reconstruct the Quaternary ice sheets during the last glacial cycle. The model includes basal sliding, internal representations of the surface mass balance, glacial isostasy, and a treatment for marine calving. The time dependent forcing consists of temperature and precipitation anomalies from the UKMO GCM scaled to the GRIP ice core &#8706;18O record. Model parameters were chosen to best match geomorphological inferences on maximum LGM extent and global eustatic sea level change. For our standard run we find a maximum ice volume of 57 x 106 km3 at 18.5 ka cal BP. This corresponds to a eustatic sea level lowering of 110 m after correction for hydro-isostatic displacement and anomalous ice resulting from defects in the PMIP climatic forcing. Of this 110 m, 82 m was stored in the North American ice sheet and 25 m in the Eurasian ice sheet. We determine the qualitative and quantitative response of the model from a comprehensive sensitivity study in which the most important parameters were varied over their respective ranges of uncertainty. Model outputs comparable to the observational record were explored in detail as a linear function along the axes of parameter space of the reference model. The method reveals the dominance of climate uncertainty when modelling the LGM configuration of the northern hemisphere ice sheets, but also highlights the role of ice rheology and basal processes for aspect ratio, and glacial isostasy and calving for the timing of maximum ice volume

Response of the Asian Summer Monsoons to a High-latitude Thermal Forcing: Mechanisms and Nonlinearities

This study investigates mechanisms and nonlinearities in the response of the Asian Summer Monsoons (ASM) to high-latitude thermal forcings of different amplitudes. Using a suite of runs carried out with an intermediate-complexity atmospheric general circulation model, we find that the imposed forcings produce a strong precipitation response over the eastern ASM but a rather weak response over the southern ASM. The forcing also causes a precipitation dipole with wet conditions over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) and dry conditions over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and southeast Asia. A moderate increase of precipitation along the southern margin of the TP is also produced. Simulations designed to isolate the causal mechanisms show that thermodynamic interactions involving the tropical surface oceans are far less important than the water-vapour feedback for the transmission of information from the high-latitudes to the ASM. Additionally, we assess the nonlinearity of the ASM precipitation response to the forcing amplitude using a novel application of the empirical orthogonal function method. The response can be decomposed in two overlapping patterns. The first pattern represents a precipitation dipole with wet conditions over the eastern TP and dry conditions over BoB, which linearly increases with forcing amplitude becoming quasi-stationary for large forcing amplitudes (i.e. amplitudes leading to Arctic temperature anomalies larger than 10 degrees C). The second pattern is associated with increased precipitation over the southeastern TP and is nonlinearly dependent on forcing, being most important for intermediate forcing amplitudes (i.e. amplitudes leading to Arctic temperature anomalies between 5 and 10 degrees C)