Reliability monitoring techniques applied to a hot strip steel mill

Reliability engineering techniques have been used in the manufacturing environment for many years. However the reliability analysis of repairable systems is not so widely practised in the steel manufacturing environment. Many different analysis methods have been proposed for the modelling of repairable systems, most of these have had limited application in the manufacturing environment. The current reliability analysis techniques are predominantly used by engineers to construct a “snapshot” in time of a manufacturing system’s reliability status. There are no readily identifiable applications of reliability modelling techniques being applied to repairable systems over a long time period within the manufacturing environment The aim of this work is to construct a method which can analyse and monitor the reliability status of multiple repairable systems within the steel plant over an extended operating period. The developed analysis method is predominantly automated and is facilitated by applying standard reliability analysis techniques to all of the repairable systems failure data sets under review. This Thesis illuminates the methodology used to fulfil the remit of this research by the following sequential steps: Developing a new methodology for the application of reliability analysis techniques to repairable systems within a steel manufacturing facility Utilised an innovative step of combining three reliability analysis methods as complimentary activities Constructed an automated reliability analysis model which fulfils the project remit. In addition the model is capable of the long term monitoring of repairable system reliability The new reliability analysis method has been delivered to Tata Steel and is installed in the Port Talbot Technology Group with a direct link to the Hot Strip Mill (HSM) monitoring database. This reliability analysis method has been tested with four years operational data from the Hot Strip Mill manufacturing area and the analysis has shown that changes and trends in all systems reliability status can be easily identified.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Reliability monitoring techniques applied to a hot strip steel mill

Reliability engineering techniques have been used in the manufacturing environment for many years. However the reliability analysis of repairable systems is not so widely practised in the steel manufacturing environment. Many different analysis methods have been proposed for the modelling of repairable systems, most of these have had limited application in the manufacturing environment. The current reliability analysis techniques are predominantly used by engineers to construct a “snapshot” in time of a manufacturing system’s reliability status. There are no readily identifiable applications of reliability modelling techniques being applied to repairable systems over a long time period within the manufacturing environment The aim of this work is to construct a method which can analyse and monitor the reliability status of multiple repairable systems within the steel plant over an extended operating period. The developed analysis method is predominantly automated and is facilitated by applying standard reliability analysis techniques to all of the repairable systems failure data sets under review. This Thesis illuminates the methodology used to fulfil the remit of this research by the following sequential steps: Developing a new methodology for the application of reliability analysis techniques to repairable systems within a steel manufacturing facility Utilised an innovative step of combining three reliability analysis methods as complimentary activities Constructed an automated reliability analysis model which fulfils the project remit. In addition the model is capable of the long term monitoring of repairable system reliability The new reliability analysis method has been delivered to Tata Steel and is installed in the Port Talbot Technology Group with a direct link to the Hot Strip Mill (HSM) monitoring database. This reliability analysis method has been tested with four years operational data from the Hot Strip Mill manufacturing area and the analysis has shown that changes and trends in all systems reliability status can be easily identified

Studies in Electrical Machines & Wind Turbines associated with developing Reliable Power Generation

The publications listed in date order in this document are offered for the Degree of Doctor of Science in Durham University and have been selected from the author’s full publication list. The papers in this thesis constitute a continuum of original work in fundamental and applied electrical science, spanning 30 years, deployed on real industrial problems, making a significant contribution to conventional and renewable energy power generation. This is the basis of a claim of high distinction, constituting an original and substantial contribution to engineering science

Markov and Semi-markov Chains, Processes, Systems and Emerging Related Fields

This book covers a broad range of research results in the field of Markov and Semi-Markov chains, processes, systems and related emerging fields. The authors of the included research papers are well-known researchers in their field. The book presents the state-of-the-art and ideas for further research for theorists in the fields. Nonetheless, it also provides straightforwardly applicable results for diverse areas of practitioners

DC railway power supply system reliability evaluation and optimal operation plan

With the continuous and rapid development of the economy and the acceleration of urbanisation, public transport in cities has entered a period of rapid development. Urban rail transit is characterised by high speed, large traffic volume, safety, reliability and punctuality, which are incomparable with those of other forms of public transport. The traction power supply system (TPSS) is an important part of an electrified railway, and its safety issues are increasingly prominent. Different from the substation in a general power system, the load of a TPSS has a great impact on the traction transformer; moreover, in order to ensure normal operation of the train in case of failure, the traction substation must be able to access a cross-district power supply, as it has a high demand for reliable operation. The safe and reliable operation of DC TPSSs is the basis of the whole urban railway transit system. Previous studies have investigated the reliability of the TPSS main electrical wiring system. However, the impact of traction load and the actual operation of trains on system reliability has not been considered when designing a DC railway power supply system. The purpose of the research for this thesis is to find an optimal system operation plan for urban railways, considering load characteristics. This thesis begins with a review of the main arrangements of DC railway power supply systems and the literature on railway reliability studies. A model of single train simulation and a power supply system is established in MATLAB. The developed simulator is then integrated with a TPSS reliability model to evaluate the energy and reliability performance of DC railway power systems. Based on the train traction load model and train schedule, a comprehensive method for evaluating a DC TPSS considering traction load is proposed. Through simulation of the actual operation of the train group, the system energy consumption and substation life loss generated under different train operation diagrams and schedules are compared to provide a reference for the reasonable design of the timetable. Taking the life loss and energy consumption of the whole TPSS as the objective function, a genetic algorithm is used to optimise the train speed, coasting velocity, station dwell time and headway to find the optimal operation strategy. This is illustrated with a case study of the Singapore East–West metro line. The study has addressed the following issues: development of a multi-train power simulator, evaluation of reliability performance, and finally the search for an optimal operation plan. The train running diagram and timetable are optimised jointly. This can help railway operators make decisions for an optimal operation plan and reduce the operation risk of the power system

Prognostic-based Life Extension Methodology with Application to Power Generation Systems

Practicable life extension of engineering systems would be a remarkable application of prognostics. This research proposes a framework for prognostic-base life extension. This research investigates the use of prognostic data to mobilize the potential residual life. The obstacles in performing life extension include: lack of knowledge, lack of tools, lack of data, and lack of time. This research primarily considers using the acoustic emission (AE) technology for quick-response diagnostic. To be specific, an important feature of AE data was statistically modeled to provide quick, robust and intuitive diagnostic capability. The proposed model was successful to detect the out of control situation when the data of faulty bearing was applied. This research also highlights the importance of self-healing materials. One main component of the proposed life extension framework is the trend analysis module. This module analyzes the pattern of the time-ordered degradation measures. The trend analysis is helpful not only for early fault detection but also to track the improvement in the degradation rate. This research considered trend analysis methods for the prognostic parameters, degradation waveform and multivariate data. In this respect, graphical methods was found appropriate for trend detection of signal features. Hilbert Huang Transform was applied to analyze the trends in waveforms. For multivariate data, it was realized that PCA is able to indicate the trends in the data if accompanied by proper data processing. In addition, two algorithms are introduced to address non-monotonic trends. It seems, both algorithms have the potential to treat the non-monotonicity in degradation data. Although considerable research has been devoted to developing prognostics algorithms, rather less attention has been paid to post-prognostic issues such as maintenance decision making. A multi-objective optimization model is presented for a power generation unit. This model proves the ability of prognostic models to balance between power generation and life extension. In this research, the confronting objective functions were defined as maximizing profit and maximizing service life. The decision variables include the shaft speed and duration of maintenance actions. The results of the optimization models showed clearly that maximizing the service life requires lower shaft speed and longer maintenance time

Addressing Complexity and Intelligence in Systems Dependability Evaluation

Engineering and computing systems are increasingly complex, intelligent, and open adaptive. When it comes to the dependability evaluation of such systems, there are certain challenges posed by the characteristics of “complexity” and “intelligence”. The first aspect of complexity is the dependability modelling of large systems with many interconnected components and dynamic behaviours such as Priority, Sequencing and Repairs. To address this, the thesis proposes a novel hierarchical solution to dynamic fault tree analysis using Semi-Markov Processes. A second aspect of complexity is the environmental conditions that may impact dependability and their modelling. For instance, weather and logistics can influence maintenance actions and hence dependability of an offshore wind farm. The thesis proposes a semi-Markov-based maintenance model called “Butterfly Maintenance Model (BMM)” to model this complexity and accommodate it in dependability evaluation. A third aspect of complexity is the open nature of system of systems like swarms of drones which makes complete design-time dependability analysis infeasible. To address this aspect, the thesis proposes a dynamic dependability evaluation method using Fault Trees and Markov-Models at runtime.The challenge of “intelligence” arises because Machine Learning (ML) components do not exhibit programmed behaviour; their behaviour is learned from data. However, in traditional dependability analysis, systems are assumed to be programmed or designed. When a system has learned from data, then a distributional shift of operational data from training data may cause ML to behave incorrectly, e.g., misclassify objects. To address this, a new approach called SafeML is developed that uses statistical distance measures for monitoring the performance of ML against such distributional shifts. The thesis develops the proposed models, and evaluates them on case studies, highlighting improvements to the state-of-the-art, limitations and future work

Modèles de fiabilité et de maintenance prédictive de systèmes sujets à des défaillances interactives

RÉSUMÉ: L’interaction des défaillances est une thématique qui prend une ampleur considérable dans le monde de la recherche industrielle moderne. Les systèmes sont de plus en plus complexes et leurs fonctionnements et défaillances sur le long terme sont sujets à diverses sources d’influence internes et externes. Les actifs physiques en particulier sont soumis à l’impact du temps, de l’environnement et du rythme de leur utilisation. Connaître ces sources d’influence n’est pas suffisant car il importe de comprendre quelles sont les relations qui les lient afin de planifier de façon efficiente la maintenance des actifs. En effet, cette dernière peut s’avérer très couteuse et sa mauvaise planification peut conduire à l’utilisation de systèmes dangereux pouvant engendrer des évènements catastrophiques. La fiabilité est un vaste domaine. Elle propose une large panoplie de modèles mathématiques qui permettent de prédire le fonctionnement et les défaillances des actifs physiques. Ceci dit, les concepts des modèles les plus appliqués à ce jour se basent sur des hypothèses parfois simplistes et occultent bien souvent certaines relations de dépendances qui régissent un système. L’interaction des défaillances dans le cadre des dépendances stochastiques est abordée par de nombreux travaux de recherches. Par contre, la compréhension et l’implémentation de ces travaux demeurent un défi pour les spécialistes en maintenance qui ont besoin de modèles réalistes pour une maintenance préventive efficace. Cette thèse traite de la fiabilité et la maintenance prédictive des actifs physiques en exploitation et sujets à divers modes de défaillance interactifs. Elle établit avant tout l’importance d’accorder une attention particulière à l’interaction des défaillances dans le domaine de la fiabilité et de la maintenance. Dans une revue de littérature, les concepts et les méthodes de modélisation et d’optimisation en fiabilité et en maintenance préventive sont présentés. Les divers types de dépendances dans un système sont discutés. Un cas d’application, à savoir celui des ponceaux en béton, est proposé. Les travaux entrepris par la suite fournissent avant tout un cadre pour la modélisation de la fiabilité incluant l’interaction des défaillances. A cette fin, une étude comparative des modèles existants les plus pertinents est effectuée de points de vue conceptuel, méthodologique et applicatif. Le cadre étant défini, un modèle basé sur les chocs extrêmes et les chaînes de Markov est construit afin de valoriser le caractère séquentiel des défaillances interactives. Cette proposition est améliorée pour prendre en compte la dégradation du système. Une stratégie de maintenance prédictive est conséquemment développée. Toutes ces approches sont appliquées à un ensemble de ponceaux en béton observés sur plusieurs années. Cela permet d’expliquer les dépendances entre l’occurrence de déplacements et l’occurrence de fissures dans une structure. Tous ces concepts et résultats sont finalement discutés afin de déterminer des perspectives réalistes pour une étude approfondie de l’interactivité d’un point de vue fiabiliste et dans un but stratégique pour la planification de la maintenance.----------ABSTRACT: Failure interaction is a subject gaining growing attention in the world of modern industrial research. Systems are becoming increasingly complex. Their life cycles are subject to various internal and external influences. Physical assets in particular are impacted by time, environment and usage. Knowing these sources of influence is not enough. Indeed, it is important to understand the relationships between them in order to plan effectively for the maintenance of assets. Maintenance can be quite expensive. Thus, poor planning can lead to dangerous systems that could cause catastrophic events. Reliability engineering offers a wide range of mathematical models to predict failures. That being said, the concepts of the most widely applied models in the industry are often based on simplistic assumptions and tend to overlook certain dependencies within a system. Failure interaction in the context of stochastic dependencies is largely addressed in the literature. However, understanding and implementing the proposed approaches remains a challenge for maintenance specialists that need realistic models for efficient maintenance planning. This thesis focuses on the reliability and predictive maintenance of physical assets subject to interactive failure modes. First of all, it emphasizes the importance of paying particular attention to failure interaction. In a literature review, the concepts and methods for modeling and optimizing reliability and preventive maintenance are presented. The diverse dependencies in a system are discussed. A case study is proposed, namely concrete culverts. Subsequently, the research provides a framework for modeling reliability that integrates the interaction of failures. To this end, the most relevant models in the literature are comparatively studied from a conceptual, methodological and applicative point of view. In the defined framework, a model based on extreme shocks and Markov processes is built in order to represent the sequential nature of interactive failures. This approach is extended to take into account the natural degradation of a system. A predictive maintenance strategy is consequently developed. All these models are applied to a set of concrete culverts observed over several years. The dependences between the occurrence of displacements and the occurrence of cracks in a structure are explained through these approaches. Finally, these concepts and results are discussed in order to determine realistic perspectives for in-depth studies of the impact of failure interaction on reliability and for strategic maintenance plannin