Computational Methods for Risk-Averse Undiscounted Transient Markov Models

Cataloged from PDF version of article.The total cost problem for discrete-time controlled transient Markov models is considered. The objective functional is a Markov dynamic risk measure of the total cost. Two solution methods, value and policy iteration, are proposed, and their convergence is analyzed. In the policy iteration method, we propose two algorithms for policy evaluation: the nonsmooth Newton method and convex programming, and we prove their convergence. The results are illustrated on a credit limit control problem

Computational methods for risk-averse undiscounted transient markov models

The total cost problem for discrete-time controlled transient Markov models is considered. The objective functional is a Markov dynamic risk measure of the total cost. Two solution methods, value and policy iteration, are proposed, and their convergence is analyzed. In the policy iteration method, we propose two algorithms for policy evaluation: the nonsmooth Newton method and convex programming, and we prove their convergence. The results are illustrated on a credit limit control problem. © 2014 INFORMS

Risk Aversion in Finite Markov Decision Processes Using Total Cost Criteria and Average Value at Risk

In this paper we present an algorithm to compute risk averse policies in Markov Decision Processes (MDP) when the total cost criterion is used together with the average value at risk (AVaR) metric. Risk averse policies are needed when large deviations from the expected behavior may have detrimental effects, and conventional MDP algorithms usually ignore this aspect. We provide conditions for the structure of the underlying MDP ensuring that approximations for the exact problem can be derived and solved efficiently. Our findings are novel inasmuch as average value at risk has not previously been considered in association with the total cost criterion. Our method is demonstrated in a rapid deployment scenario, whereby a robot is tasked with the objective of reaching a target location within a temporal deadline where increased speed is associated with increased probability of failure. We demonstrate that the proposed algorithm not only produces a risk averse policy reducing the probability of exceeding the expected temporal deadline, but also provides the statistical distribution of costs, thus offering a valuable analysis tool

Risk-averse control of undiscounted transient Markov models

We use Markov risk measures to formulate a risk-averse version of the undiscounted total cost problem for a transient controlled Markov process. Using the new concept of a multikernel, we derive conditions for a system to be risk transient, that is, to have finite risk over an infinite time horizon. We derive risk-averse dynamic programming equations satisfied by the optimal policy and we describe methods for solving these equations. We illustrate the results on an optimal stopping problem and an organ transplantation problem. © 2014 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematic

Markov Decision Processes with Risk-Sensitive Criteria: An Overview

The paper provides an overview of the theory and applications of risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. The term 'risk-sensitive' refers here to the use of the Optimized Certainty Equivalent as a means to measure expectation and risk. This comprises the well-known entropic risk measure and Conditional Value-at-Risk. We restrict our considerations to stationary problems with an infinite time horizon. Conditions are given under which optimal policies exist and solution procedures are explained. We present both the theory when the Optimized Certainty Equivalent is applied recursively as well as the case where it is applied to the cumulated reward. Discounted as well as non-discounted models are reviewe

Theory of Stochastic Optimal Economic Growth

This paper is a survey of the theory of stochastic optimal economic growth.International Development,