Prediction Model of Coal and Gas Outburst Based on Rough Set-Unascertained Measure Theory

This paper proposes a risk evaluation model based on rough sets (RS) and the unascertained measure theory (UMT) for solving the accuracy problem of coal and gas outburst prediction with the aim to reduce economic losses and casualties in coal mining. The coal and gas outburst prediction problem is constrained by the selection of the prediction indexes, the coupling of a single index, and the weight of each index. The proposed RS-UMT model applies two modified techniques. The first one is a method for index weight determination that was improved by rough set theory. The second one is a method for coupling a single index that was modified by the unascertained measure theory. The RS-UMT model not only well solves the problem of coupling a single index of coal and gas outbursts, but also solves the problem that the weight is susceptible to subjective factors and prior knowledge. The RS-UMT model was used to judge the risk degree of outburst of 10 mining faces in the Pingdingshan No. 8 Mine and No. 10 Mine. The predictive results of the model were basically identical to the actual measured results. The performance of the RS-UMT model was also compared to existing methods. Based on the case study it can be concluded that the RS-UMT model is an accurate and very promising method for solving the coal and gas outburst prediction problem

Analyzing and Predicting Railway Operational Accidents Based on Fishbone Diagram and Bayesian Networks

The prevention of railway operational accidents has become one of the leading issues in railway safety. Identifying the impact factors which significantly affect railway operating is critical for decreasing the occurrence of railway accidents. In this study, 8440 samples of accident data are selected as the datasets for analyzing. Fishbone diagram is applied to obtain the factors which cause the accident from the perspective of human-equipment-environment-management system theory. Then, the Bayesian network method was selected to establish a railway operation safety accident prediction model, and the sensitivity analysis method was used to obtain the sensitivity of each variable factor to the accident level. The results show that season, location, trouble maker and job function have a significant impact on railway safety, and their sensitivity was 0.4577, 0.4116, 0.3478 and 0.3192, respectively. Research helps the railway sector to understand the fundamental causes of accidents, and provides an effective reference for accident prevention, which is conducive to the long-term development of railway transportation

Multiscale Forecasting Models Based on Singular Values for Nonstationary Time Series

Time series are valuable sources of information for supporting planning activities. Transport, fishery, economy and finances are predominant sectors concerned into obtaining information in advance to improve their productivity and efficiency. During the last decades diverse linear and nonlinear forecasting models have been developed for attending this demand. However the achievement of accuracy follows being a challenge due to the high variability of the most observed phenomena. In this research are proposed two decomposition methods based on Singular Value Decomposition of a Hankel matrix (HSVD) in order to extract components of low and high frequency from a nonstationary time series. The proposed decomposition is used to improve the accuracy of linear and nonlinear autoregressive models. The evaluation of the proposed forecasters is performed through data coming from transport sector and fishery sector. Series of injured persons in traffic accidents of Santiago and Valparaíso and stock of sardine and anchovy of central-south Chilean coast are used. Further, for comparison purposes, it is evaluated the forecast accuracy reached by two decomposition techniques conventionally used, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and decomposition based on Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT), both joint with linear and nonlinear autoregressive models. The experiments shown that the proposed methods based on Singular Value Decomposition of a Hankel matrix in conjunction with linear or nonlinear models reach the best accuracy for one-step and multi-step ahead forecasting of the studied time series.Sociedad Argentina de Informática e Investigación Operativa (SADIO

Air pollution forecasts: An overview

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

‏Spatial Data-Driven Traffic Flow Prediction Using Geographical Information System

Today, traffic is one of the biggest problems of urban management. There are two general methods for traffic management, soft and hard methods. In the hard method, physical changes are applied to the road network, and in the soft method, the existing conditions are optimized. Traffic forecasting is one of the soft methods for traffic management. Traffic forecasting is usually done based on the time of existing traffic conditions, while the effect of location and neighborhood, which is one of the concepts of GIS science, is less seen in predictions. In this research, variables affecting traffic were first identified. Then, five machine learning methods were used to predict traffic on all city roads. KNN method was selected as the best one with accuracy and Kappa of 96.14% and 0.95 respectively. Finally, the prediction map was prepared by applying the superior model and Geographic Information System (GIS). One of the advantages of the traffic prediction map is easy for users and administrators to manage traffic

New Progress of Grey System Theory in The New Millennium

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarize the progress in grey system research during 2000- 2015, so as to present some important new concepts, models, methods and a new framework of grey system theory. Design/methodology/approach –The new thinking, new models and new methods of grey system theory and their applications are presented in this paper. It includes algorithm rules of grey numbers based on the “Kernel” and the degree of greyness of grey numbers, the concept of general grey numbers, the synthesis axiom of degree of greyness of grey numbers and their operations; the general form of buffer operators of grey sequence operators; the four basic models of GM(1,1), such as Even Grey Model(EGM), Original Difference Grey Model(ODGM), Even Difference Grey Model(EDGM), Discrete Grey Model(DGM) and the suitable sequence type of each basic model, and suitable range of most used grey forecasting models; the similarity degree of grey incidences, the closeness degree of grey incidences and the three dimensional absolute degree of grey incidence of grey incidence analysis models; the grey cluster model based on center-point and end-point mixed triangular whitenization functions; the multi-attribute intelligent grey target decision model, the two stages decision model with grey synthetic measure of grey decision models; grey game models, grey input-output models of grey combined models; and the problems of robust stability for grey stochastic time-delay systems of neutral type, distributed-delay type and neutral distributed-delay type of grey control, etc. And the new framework of grey system theory is given as well. Findings –The problems which remain for further studying are discussed at the end of each section. The reader could know the general picture of research and developing trend of grey system theory from this paper. Practical implications – A lot of successful practical applications of the new models to solve various problems have been found in many different areas of natural science, social science, and engineering, including spaceflight, civil aviation, information, metallurgy, machinery, petroleum, chemical industry, electrical power, electronics, light industries, energy resources, transportation, medicine, health, agriculture, forestry, geography, hydrology, seismology, meteorology, environment protection, architecture, behavioral science, management science, law, education, military science, etc. These practical applications have brought forward definite and noticeable social and economic benefits. It demonstrates a wide range of applicability of grey system theory, especially in the situation where the available information is incomplete and the collected data are inaccurate. Originality/value –The reader is given a general picture of grey systems theory as a new model system and a new framework for studying problems where partial information is known; especially for uncertain systems with few data points and poor information. The problems remaining for further studying are identified at the end of each section. Keywords Grey systems theory, Operations of grey numbers, Buffer operators, Grey forecasting models, Grey incidence analysis models, Grey cluster evaluation models, Grey decision models, Combined grey models, Grey contro

Sustainable marine ecosystems: deep learning for water quality assessment and forecasting

An appropriate management of the available resources within oceans and coastal regions is vital to guarantee their sustainable development and preservation, where water quality is a key element. Leveraging on a combination of cross-disciplinary technologies including Remote Sensing (RS), Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, cloud computing, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is essential to attain this aim. In this paper, we review methodologies and technologies for water quality assessment that contribute to a sustainable management of marine environments. Specifically, we focus on Deep Leaning (DL) strategies for water quality estimation and forecasting. The analyzed literature is classified depending on the type of task, scenario and architecture. Moreover, several applications including coastal management and aquaculture are surveyed. Finally, we discuss open issues still to be addressed and potential research lines where transfer learning, knowledge fusion, reinforcement learning, edge computing and decision-making policies are expected to be the main involved agents.Postprint (published version

Fuzzy Logic

The capability of Fuzzy Logic in the development of emerging technologies is introduced in this book. The book consists of sixteen chapters showing various applications in the field of Bioinformatics, Health, Security, Communications, Transportations, Financial Management, Energy and Environment Systems. This book is a major reference source for all those concerned with applied intelligent systems. The intended readers are researchers, engineers, medical practitioners, and graduate students interested in fuzzy logic systems