Market-oriented micro virtual power prosumers operations in distribution system operator framework

As the European Union is on track to meet its 2020 energy targets on raising the share of renewable energy and increasing the efficiency in the energy consumption, considerable attention has been given to the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the restructured distribution system. This thesis proposes market-oriented operations of micro virtual power prosumers (J.lVPPs) in the distribution system operator framework, in which the J.lVPPs evolve from home-oriented energy management systems to price-taking prosumers and to price-making prosumers. Considering the diversity of the DERs installed in the residential sector, a configurable J.l VPP is proposed first to deliver multiple energy services using a fuzzy logic-based generic algorithm. By responding to the retail price dynamics and applying load control, the J.lVPP achieves considerable electricity bill savings, active utilisation of energy storage system and fast return on investment. As the J.lVPPs enter the distribution system market, they are modelled as price-takers in a two-settlement market first and a chance-constrained formulation is proposed to derive the bidding strategies. The obtained strategy demonstrates its ability to bring the J.l VPP maximum profit based on different composition of DERs and to maintain adequate supply capacity to meet the demand considering the volatile renewable generation and load forecast. Given the non-cooperative nature of the actual market, the J.l VPPs are transformed into price-makers and their market behaviours are studied in the context of electricity market equilibrium models. The resulted equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) are presented and solved using a novel application of coevolutionary approach. Compared with the roles of home-oriented energy management systems and price-taking prosumers, the J.lVPPs as price­ making prosumers have an improved utilisation rate of the installed DER capacity and a guaranteed profit from participating in the distribution system market

Market-oriented micro virtual power prosumers operations in distribution system operator framework

As the European Union is on track to meet its 2020 energy targets on raising the share of renewable energy and increasing the efficiency in the energy consumption, considerable attention has been given to the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the restructured distribution system. This thesis proposes market-oriented operations of micro virtual power prosumers (J.lVPPs) in the distribution system operator framework, in which the J.lVPPs evolve from home-oriented energy management systems to price-taking prosumers and to price-making prosumers. Considering the diversity of the DERs installed in the residential sector, a configurable J.l VPP is proposed first to deliver multiple energy services using a fuzzy logic-based generic algorithm. By responding to the retail price dynamics and applying load control, the J.lVPP achieves considerable electricity bill savings, active utilisation of energy storage system and fast return on investment. As the J.lVPPs enter the distribution system market, they are modelled as price-takers in a two-settlement market first and a chance-constrained formulation is proposed to derive the bidding strategies. The obtained strategy demonstrates its ability to bring the J.l VPP maximum profit based on different composition of DERs and to maintain adequate supply capacity to meet the demand considering the volatile renewable generation and load forecast. Given the non-cooperative nature of the actual market, the J.l VPPs are transformed into price-makers and their market behaviours are studied in the context of electricity market equilibrium models. The resulted equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) are presented and solved using a novel application of coevolutionary approach. Compared with the roles of home-oriented energy management systems and price-taking prosumers, the J.lVPPs as price­ making prosumers have an improved utilisation rate of the installed DER capacity and a guaranteed profit from participating in the distribution system market

Born to trade: a genetically evolved keyword bidder for sponsored search

In sponsored search auctions, advertisers choose a set of keywords based on products they wish to market. They bid for advertising slots that will be displayed on the search results page when a user submits a query containing the keywords that the advertiser selected. Deciding how much to bid is a real challenge: if the bid is too low with respect to the bids of other advertisers, the ad might not get displayed in a favorable position; a bid that is too high on the other hand might not be profitable either, since the attracted number of conversions might not be enough to compensate for the high cost per click. In this paper we propose a genetically evolved keyword bidding strategy that decides how much to bid for each query based on historical data such as the position obtained on the previous day. In light of the fact that our approach does not implement any particular expert knowledge on keyword auctions, it did remarkably well in the Trading Agent Competition at IJCAI2009

Application of Machine Learning to Financial Time Series Analysis

This multidisciplinary thesis investigates the application of machine learning to financial time series analysis. The research is motivated by the following thesis question: ‘Can one improve upon the state of the art in financial time series analysis through the application of machine learning?’ The work is split according to the following time series trichotomy: 1) characterization — determine the fundamental properties of the time series; 2) modelling — find a description that accurately captures features of the long-term behaviour of the system; and 3) forecasting — accurately predict the short-term evolution of the system

Decision support for participation in electricity markets considering the transaction of services and electricity at the local level

[EN] The growing concerns regarding the lack of fossil fuels, their costs, and their impact on the environment have led governmental institutions to launch energy policies that promote the increasing installation of technologies that use renewable energy sources to generate energy. The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources brings a great fluctuation on the generation side, which strongly affects the power and energy system management. The control of this system is moving from hierarchical and central to a smart and distributed approach. The system operators are nowadays starting to consider the final end users (consumers and prosumers) as a part of the solution in power system operation activities. In this sense, the end-users are changing their behavior from passive to active players. The role of aggregators is essential in order to empower the end-users, also contributing to those behavior changes. Although in several countries aggregators are legally recognized as an entity of the power and energy system, its role being mainly centered on representing end-users in wholesale market participation. This work contributes to the advancement of the state-of-the-art with models that enable the active involvement of the end-users in electricity markets in order to become key participants in the management of power and energy systems. Aggregators are expected to play an essential role in these models, making the connection between the residential end-users, electricity markets, and network operators. Thus, this work focuses on providing solutions to a wide variety of challenges faced by aggregators. The main results of this work include the developed models to enable consumers and prosumers participation in electricity markets and power and energy systems management. The proposed decision support models consider demand-side management applications, local electricity market models, electricity portfolio management, and local ancillary services. The proposed models are validated through case studies based on real data. The used scenarios allow a comprehensive validation of the models from different perspectives, namely end-users, aggregators, and network operators. The considered case studies were carefully selected to demonstrate the characteristics of each model, and to demonstrate how each of them contributes to answering the research questions defined to this work.[ES] La creciente preocupación por la escasez de combustibles fósiles, sus costos y su impacto en el medio ambiente ha llevado a las instituciones gubernamentales a lanzar políticas energéticas que promuevan la creciente instalación de tecnologías que utilizan fuentes de energía renovables para generar energía. La creciente penetración de las fuentes de energía renovable trae consigo una gran fluctuación en el lado de la generación, lo que afecta fuertemente la gestión del sistema de potencia y energía. El control de este sistema está pasando de un enfoque jerárquico y central a un enfoque inteligente y distribuido. Actualmente, los operadores del sistema están comenzando a considerar a los usuarios finales (consumidores y prosumidores) como parte de la solución en las actividades de operación del sistema eléctrico. En este sentido, los usuarios finales están cambiando su comportamiento de jugadores pasivos a jugadores activos. El papel de los agregadores es esencial para empoderar a los usuarios finales, contribuyendo también a esos cambios de comportamiento. Aunque en varios países los agregadores están legalmente reconocidos como una entidad del sistema eléctrico y energético, su papel se centra principalmente en representar a los usuarios finales en la participación del mercado mayorista. Este trabajo contribuye al avance del estado del arte con modelos que permiten la participación activa de los usuarios finales en los mercados eléctricos para convertirse en participantes clave en la gestión de los sistemas de potencia y energía. Se espera que los agregadores desempeñen un papel esencial en estos modelos, haciendo la conexión entre los usuarios finales residenciales, los mercados de electricidad y los operadores de red. Por lo tanto, este trabajo se enfoca en brindar soluciones a una amplia variedad de desafíos que enfrentan los agregadores. Los principales resultados de este trabajo incluyen los modelos desarrollados para permitir la participación de los consumidores y prosumidores en los mercados eléctricos y la gestión de los sistemas de potencia y energía. Los modelos de soporte de decisiones propuestos consideran aplicaciones de gestión del lado de la demanda, modelos de mercado eléctrico local, gestión de cartera de electricidad y servicios auxiliares locales. Los modelos propuestos son validan mediante estudios de casos basados en datos reales. Los escenarios utilizados permiten una validación integral de los modelos desde diferentes perspectivas, a saber, usuarios finales, agregadores y operadores de red. Los casos de estudio considerados fueron cuidadosamente seleccionados para demostrar las características de cada modelo y demostrar cómo cada uno de ellos contribuye a responder las preguntas de investigación definidas para este trabajo