Modeling Lane-Changing Behavior in a Connected Environment: A Game Theory Approach

AbstractVehicle-to-Vehicle communications provide the opportunity to create an internet of cars through the recent advances in communication technologies, processing power, and sensing technologies. Aconnected vehicle receives real-time information from surrounding vehicles; such information can improve drivers’ awareness about their surrounding traffic condition and lead to safer and more efficient driving maneuvers. Lane-changing behavior,as one of the most challenging driving maneuvers to understand and to predict, and a major source of congestion and collisions, can benefit from this additional information.This paper presents a lane-changing model based on a game-theoretical approach that endogenously accounts for the flow of information in a connected vehicular environment.A calibration approach based on the method of simulated moments is presented and a simplified version of the proposed framework is calibrated against NGSIM data. The prediction capability of the simplified model is validated. It is concluded the presented framework is capable of predicting lane-changing behavior with limitations that still need to be addressed.Finally, a simulation framework based on the fictitious play is proposed. The simulation results revealed that the presented lane-changing model provides a greater level of realism than a basic gap-acceptance model

Results of Micro-Simulation Model for Exploring Drivers' Behavior on Acceleration Lanes

This study examines drivers' behavior on acceleration lanes, close to the convergence between the main and the secondary traffic streams, by means of traffic micro-simulations. Experimental data collected videotaping two acceleration lanes in Italy have been used to initially calibrate a simulation model and to validate it subsequently. The analyses had focused on both vehicles coming from the on-ramp, in terms of entrance points dispersion into the main traffic stream along the acceleration lanes, merging speeds, and acceleration rates reached, and on vehicles driving on the freeway right lane, in terms of vehicles categories, traffic volumes, and speeds. The maneuvers have been implemented in the TransModeler traffic simulation package and several scenarios have been considered, changing the traffic composition and the speeds at which drivers enter the acceleration lane from time to time. This led to obtain a large number of case studies, where the mutual influence between the two flows combined with the vehicle performances and the psychophysical characteristics of drivers, have led to an initial evaluation of the main variables in respect of which the required length for the specialized lanes depends. Road design guidelines' standards have been later compared to what was observed in reality and it can be claimed that the microscopic traffic model in some cases confirms the standards of road design guidelines while, in other cases, contradicts them

APPLICATION OF PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND CALIBRATION METHOD FOR CAR-FOLLOWING MODELS

Both safety and the capacity of the roadway system are highly dependent on the car-following characteristics of drivers. Car-following theory describes the driver behavior of vehicles following other vehicles in a traffic stream. In the last few decades, many car-following models have been developed; however, studies are still needed to improve their accuracy and reliability. Car-following models are a vital component of traffic simulation tools that attempt to mimic driver behavior in the real world. Microscopic traffic simulators, particularly car-following models, have been extensively used in current traffic engineering studies and safety research. These models are a vital component of traffic simulation tools that attempt to mimic real-world driver behaviors. The accuracy and reliability of microscopic traffic simulation models are greatly dependent on the calibration of car-following models, which requires a large amount of real world vehicle trajectory data. In this study, the author developed a process to apply a stochastic calibration method with appropriate regularization to estimate the distribution of parameters for car-following models. The calibration method is based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation using the Bayesian estimation theory that has been recently investigated for use in inverse problems. This dissertation research includes a case study, which is based on the Linear (Helly) model with a different number of vehicle trajectories in a highway network. The stochastic approach facilitated the calibration of car-following models more realistically than the deterministic method, as the deterministic algorithm can easily get stuck at a local minimum. This study also demonstrates that the calibrated model yields smaller errors with large sample sizes. Furthermore, the results from the Linear model validation effort suggest that the performance of the calibration method is dependent upon size of the vehicle trajectory

Modelling of Driver and Pedestrian Behaviour – A Historical Review

Driver and pedestrian behaviour significantly affect the safety and the flow of traffic at the microscopic and macroscopic levels. The driver behaviour models describe the driver decisions made in different traffic flow conditions. Modelling the pedestrian behaviour plays an essential role in the analysis of pedestrian flows in the areas such as public transit terminals, pedestrian zones, evacuations, etc. Driver behaviour models, integrated into simulation tools, can be divided into car-following models and lane-changing models. The simulation tools are used to replicate traffic flows and infer certain regularities. Particular model parameters must be appropriately calibrated to approximate the realistic traffic flow conditions. This paper describes the existing car-following models, lane-changing models, and pedestrian behaviour models. Further, it underlines the importance of calibrating the parameters of microsimulation models to replicate realistic traffic flow conditions and sets the guidelines for future research related to the development of new models and the improvement of the existing ones.</p

Advanced Quantitative Methods for Imminent Detection of Crash Prone Conditions and Safety Evaluation

Crashes can be accurately predicted through reliable data sources and rigorous statistical models; and prevented through data-driven, evidence-based traffic control strategies. Both predictive analysis and analysis to estimate the causal effect of traffic variables of real-time crashes are instrumental to crash prediction and a better understanding of the mechanism of crash occurrence. However, the research on the second analysis type is very limited for real-time crash prediction; and the conventional predictive analysis using inductive loop detector data has accuracy issues related to inconsistently and distantly spaced loop detectors. The effectiveness of traffic control strategies for improving safety performance cannot be measured and compared without an appropriate traffic simulation application. This dissertation is an attempt to address these research gaps. First, it conducts the propensity score based analysis to assess the causal effect of speed variation on crash occurrence using the crash data and ILD data. As a casual analysis method, the propensity score based model is applied to generate samples with similar covariate distributions in both high- and low-speed variation groups of all cases. Under this setting, the confounding effects are removed and the causal effect of speed variation can be obtained. Second, it conducts a predictive analysis on lane-change related crashes using lane-specific traffic data collected from three ILD stations near a crash location. The real-time traffic data for the two lanes – the vehicle’s lane (subject lane) and the lane to which that a vehicle intends to change (target lane) – are more closely related with lane-change related crashes, as opposed to congregated traffic data for all lanes. It is found that lane-specific variables are appropriate to study the lane-change frequency and the resulting lane-change related crashes. Third, it conducts a predictive analysis on real-time crashes using simulated traffic data. The purpose of using simulated traffic data rather than real data is to mitigate the temporal and spatial issues of detector data. The cell transmission model (CTM), a macroscopic simulation model, is employed to instrument the corridor with a uniform and close layout of virtual detector stations that measure traffic data when physical stations are not available. Traffic flow characteristics at the crash site are simulated by CTM 0-5 minutes prior to a crash. It shows that the simulated traffic data can improve the prediction performance by accounting for the spatial-tempo issue of ILD data. Fourth, it presents a novel approach to modeling freeway crashes using lane-specific simulated traffic data. The new model can not only account for the spatial-tempo issues of detector data but also account for heterogeneous traffic conditions across lanes using a lane-specific cell transmission model (LSCTM). The LSCTM illustrates both discretionary lane-changing (DLC) and mandatory lane-changing (MLC) activities. This new approach presents a viable alternative for utilizing traffic simulation models for safety analysis and evaluation. Last, it develops a crash prediction and prevention application (CPPA) based on simulated traffic data to detect crash-prone conditions and to help select the desirable traffic control strategies for crash prevention. The proposed application is tested in a case study with VSL strategies, and results show that the proposed crash prediction and prevention method could effectively detect crash-prone conditions and evaluate the safety and mobility impacts of various VSL alternatives before their deployment. In the future, the application will be more user-friendly and can provide both online traffic operations support as well as offline evaluation of various traffic control operations and methods

Lane changing models for arterial traffic

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2007.Includes bibliographical references (p. 126-129).Driving behavior models for lane-changing and acceleration form an integral component of microscopic traffic simulators and determine its value in evaluation of different traffic management strategies. The state-of-art model for lane changing adopts a two-level framework: the first level involves a latent or unobserved choice of a target lane; the second level models the acceptance of adjacent gaps in the direction of the target lane. While this modeling approach has several advantages over past works, it assumes drivers to execute lane change within the same time step in which gap was found to be acceptable. In other words, under time steps typically adopted in model applications, the lane change duration is assumed to be negligibly small. However, past works report average lane change durations to the order of 5-6 seconds. Besides this practical maneuvering requirement, the assumption fails further in moderate or low density traffic conditions with ample gap sizes or low speed conditions, where lane changing maneuver can take longer than average. The work outlined in this thesis proposes an extension to the two-level framework for lane changing models through a third level that explicitly models the lane change duration.(cont.) Traffic conditions in the driver's neighborhood that are likely to influence lane change duration are accounted for in the third level. The extended model is applied to data obtained from video observations on traffic on a stretch of an arterial corridor in California. Apart from possessing distinctive features including signalized intersections and multiple access locations that result in lower average speeds, the arterial dataset used in this study represents a relatively low density scenario in terms of gap availability, thereby presenting an ideal test-bed for the proposed model extension. Since arterial datasets have not received predominant attention in literature, this work uncovers some traffic aspects not encountered in past studies. The model is estimated using a sample of the overall dataset available in the form of disaggregate vehicle trajectories. The estimated model is implemented in a microscopic traffic simulator MITSIMLab, and model validation is done using aggregated traffic data. Estimation and validation results showcase the improved modeling capabilities achieved through the proposed extension.by Varun Ramanujam.S.M