Robust Likelihood-Based Survival Modeling with Microarray Data

Gene expression data can be associated with various clinical outcomes. In particular, these data can be of importance in discovering survival-associated genes for medical applications. As alternatives to traditional statistical methods, sophisticated methods and software programs have been developed to overcome the high-dimensional difficulty of microarray data. Nevertheless, new algorithms and software programs are needed to include practical functions such as the discovery of multiple sets of survival-associated genes and the incorporation of risk factors, and to use in the R environment which many statisticians are familiar with. For survival modeling with microarray data, we have developed a software program (called rbsurv) which can be used conveniently and interactively in the R environment. This program selects survival-associated genes based on the partial likelihood of the Cox model and separates training and validation sets of samples for robustness. It can discover multiple sets of genes by iterative forward selection rather than one large set of genes. It can also allow adjustment for risk factors in microarray survival modeling. This software package, the rbsurv package, can be used to discover survival-associated genes with microarray data conveniently.

Incorporating biological information into linear models: A Bayesian approach to the selection of pathways and genes

The vast amount of biological knowledge accumulated over the years has allowed researchers to identify various biochemical interactions and define different families of pathways. There is an increased interest in identifying pathways and pathway elements involved in particular biological processes. Drug discovery efforts, for example, are focused on identifying biomarkers as well as pathways related to a disease. We propose a Bayesian model that addresses this question by incorporating information on pathways and gene networks in the analysis of DNA microarray data. Such information is used to define pathway summaries, specify prior distributions, and structure the MCMC moves to fit the model. We illustrate the method with an application to gene expression data with censored survival outcomes. In addition to identifying markers that would have been missed otherwise and improving prediction accuracy, the integration of existing biological knowledge into the analysis provides a better understanding of underlying molecular processes.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS463 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Censored Data Regression in High-Dimension and Low-Sample Size Settings For Genomic Applications

New high-throughput technologies are generating various types of high-dimensional genomic and proteomic data and meta-data (e.g., networks and pathways) in order to obtain a systems-level understanding of various complex diseases such as human cancers and cardiovascular diseases. As the amount and complexity of the data increase and as the questions being addressed become more sophisticated, we face the great challenge of how to model such data in order to draw valid statistical and biological conclusions. One important problem in genomic research is to relate these high-throughput genomic data to various clinical outcomes, including possibly censored survival outcomes such as age at disease onset or time to cancer recurrence. We review some recently developed methods for censored data regression in the high-dimension and low-sample size setting, with emphasis on applications to genomic data. These methods include dimension reduction-based methods, regularized estimation methods such as Lasso and threshold gradient descent method, gradient descent boosting methods and nonparametric pathways-based regression models. These methods are demonstrated and compared by analysis of a data set of microarray gene expression profiles of 240 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma together with follow-up survival information. Areas of further research are also presented

Boosting the concordance index for survival data - a unified framework to derive and evaluate biomarker combinations

The development of molecular signatures for the prediction of time-to-event outcomes is a methodologically challenging task in bioinformatics and biostatistics. Although there are numerous approaches for the derivation of marker combinations and their evaluation, the underlying methodology often suffers from the problem that different optimization criteria are mixed during the feature selection, estimation and evaluation steps. This might result in marker combinations that are only suboptimal regarding the evaluation criterion of interest. To address this issue, we propose a unified framework to derive and evaluate biomarker combinations. Our approach is based on the concordance index for time-to-event data, which is a non-parametric measure to quantify the discrimatory power of a prediction rule. Specifically, we propose a component-wise boosting algorithm that results in linear biomarker combinations that are optimal with respect to a smoothed version of the concordance index. We investigate the performance of our algorithm in a large-scale simulation study and in two molecular data sets for the prediction of survival in breast cancer patients. Our numerical results show that the new approach is not only methodologically sound but can also lead to a higher discriminatory power than traditional approaches for the derivation of gene signatures.Comment: revised manuscript - added simulation study, additional result

Using multiple classifiers for predicting the risk of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair re-intervention through hybrid feature selection.

Feature selection is essential in medical area; however, its process becomes complicated with the presence of censoring which is the unique character of survival analysis. Most survival feature selection methods are based on Cox's proportional hazard model, though machine learning classifiers are preferred. They are less employed in survival analysis due to censoring which prevents them from directly being used to survival data. Among the few work that employed machine learning classifiers, partial logistic artificial neural network with auto-relevance determination is a well-known method that deals with censoring and perform feature selection for survival data. However, it depends on data replication to handle censoring which leads to unbalanced and biased prediction results especially in highly censored data. Other methods cannot deal with high censoring. Therefore, in this article, a new hybrid feature selection method is proposed which presents a solution to high level censoring. It combines support vector machine, neural network, and K-nearest neighbor classifiers using simple majority voting and a new weighted majority voting method based on survival metric to construct a multiple classifier system. The new hybrid feature selection process uses multiple classifier system as a wrapper method and merges it with iterated feature ranking filter method to further reduce features. Two endovascular aortic repair datasets containing 91% censored patients collected from two centers were used to construct a multicenter study to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. The results showed the proposed technique outperformed individual classifiers and variable selection methods based on Cox's model such as Akaike and Bayesian information criterions and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator in p values of the log-rank test, sensitivity, and concordance index. This indicates that the proposed classifier is more powerful in correctly predicting the risk of re-intervention enabling doctor in selecting patients' future follow-up plan

Bayesian profiling of molecular signatures to predict event times

BACKGROUND: It is of particular interest to identify cancer-specific molecular signatures for early diagnosis, monitoring effects of treatment and predicting patient survival time. Molecular information about patients is usually generated from high throughput technologies such as microarray and mass spectrometry. Statistically, we are challenged by the large number of candidates but only a small number of patients in the study, and the right-censored clinical data further complicate the analysis. RESULTS: We present a two-stage procedure to profile molecular signatures for survival outcomes. Firstly, we group closely-related molecular features into linkage clusters, each portraying either similar or opposite functions and playing similar roles in prognosis; secondly, a Bayesian approach is developed to rank the centroids of these linkage clusters and provide a list of the main molecular features closely related to the outcome of interest. A simulation study showed the superior performance of our approach. When it was applied to data on diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), we were able to identify some new candidate signatures for disease prognosis. CONCLUSION: This multivariate approach provides researchers with a more reliable list of molecular features profiled in terms of their prognostic relationship to the event times, and generates dependable information for subsequent identification of prognostic molecular signatures through either biological procedures or further data analysis