Bayesian inference for wind field retrieval

In many problems in spatial statistics it is necessary to infer a global problem solution by combining local models. A principled approach to this problem is to develop a global probabilistic model for the relationships between local variables and to use this as the prior in a Bayesian inference procedure. We show how a Gaussian process with hyper-parameters estimated from Numerical Weather Prediction Models yields meteorologically convincing wind fields. We use neural networks to make local estimates of wind vector probabilities. The resulting inference problem cannot be solved analytically, but Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods allow us to retrieve accurate wind fields

Modelling frontal discontinuities in wind fields

A Bayesian procedure for the retrieval of wind vectors over the ocean using satellite borne scatterometers requires realistic prior near-surface wind field models over the oceans. We have implemented carefully chosen vector Gaussian Process models; however in some cases these models are too smooth to reproduce real atmospheric features, such as fronts. At the scale of the scatterometer observations, fronts appear as discontinuities in wind direction. Due to the nature of the retrieval problem a simple discontinuity model is not feasible, and hence we have developed a constrained discontinuity vector Gaussian Process model which ensures realistic fronts. We describe the generative model and show how to compute the data likelihood given the model. We show the results of inference using the model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods on both synthetic and real data

Supervised learning on graphs of spatio-temporal similarity in satellite image sequences

High resolution satellite image sequences are multidimensional signals composed of spatio-temporal patterns associated to numerous and various phenomena. Bayesian methods have been previously proposed in (Heas and Datcu, 2005) to code the information contained in satellite image sequences in a graph representation using Bayesian methods. Based on such a representation, this paper further presents a supervised learning methodology of semantics associated to spatio-temporal patterns occurring in satellite image sequences. It enables the recognition and the probabilistic retrieval of similar events. Indeed, graphs are attached to statistical models for spatio-temporal processes, which at their turn describe physical changes in the observed scene. Therefore, we adjust a parametric model evaluating similarity types between graph patterns in order to represent user-specific semantics attached to spatio-temporal phenomena. The learning step is performed by the incremental definition of similarity types via user-provided spatio-temporal pattern examples attached to positive or/and negative semantics. From these examples, probabilities are inferred using a Bayesian network and a Dirichlet model. This enables to links user interest to a specific similarity model between graph patterns. According to the current state of learning, semantic posterior probabilities are updated for all possible graph patterns so that similar spatio-temporal phenomena can be recognized and retrieved from the image sequence. Few experiments performed on a multi-spectral SPOT image sequence illustrate the proposed spatio-temporal recognition method

Bayesian retrieval of complete posterior PDFs of oceanic rain rate from microwave observations

A new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean is presented, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain-rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes’s theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance the understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, sensitivity analyses have been conducted based on two synthetic datasets for which the “true” conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism, but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak owing to saturation effects. It is also suggested that both the choice of the estimators and the prior information are crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of the Bayesian algorithm herein is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate

An agent-driven semantical identifier using radial basis neural networks and reinforcement learning

Due to the huge availability of documents in digital form, and the deception possibility raise bound to the essence of digital documents and the way they are spread, the authorship attribution problem has constantly increased its relevance. Nowadays, authorship attribution,for both information retrieval and analysis, has gained great importance in the context of security, trust and copyright preservation. This work proposes an innovative multi-agent driven machine learning technique that has been developed for authorship attribution. By means of a preprocessing for word-grouping and time-period related analysis of the common lexicon, we determine a bias reference level for the recurrence frequency of the words within analysed texts, and then train a Radial Basis Neural Networks (RBPNN)-based classifier to identify the correct author. The main advantage of the proposed approach lies in the generality of the semantic analysis, which can be applied to different contexts and lexical domains, without requiring any modification. Moreover, the proposed system is able to incorporate an external input, meant to tune the classifier, and then self-adjust by means of continuous learning reinforcement.Comment: Published on: Proceedings of the XV Workshop "Dagli Oggetti agli Agenti" (WOA 2014), Catania, Italy, Sepember. 25-26, 201