Development of a Predictive Model for Induction Success of Labour

Induction of the labour process is an extraordinarily common procedure used in some pregnancies. Obstetricians face the need to end a pregnancy, for medical reasons usually (maternal or fetal requirements) or less frequently, social (elective inductions for convenience). The success of induction procedure is conditioned by a multitude of maternal and fetal variables that appear before or during pregnancy or birth process, with a low predictive value. The failure of the induction process involves performing a caesarean section. This project arises from the clinical need to resolve a situation of uncertainty that occurs frequently in our clinical practice. Since the weight of clinical variables is not adequately weighted, we consider very interesting to know a priori the possibility of success of induction to dismiss those inductions with high probability of failure, avoiding unnecessary procedures or postponing end if possible. We developed a predictive model of induced labour success as a support tool in clinical decision making. Improve the predictability of a successful induction is one of the current challenges of Obstetrics because of its negative impact. The identification of those patients with high chances of failure, will allow us to offer them better care improving their health outcomes (adverse perinatal outcomes for mother and newborn), costs (medication, hospitalization, qualified staff) and patient perceived quality. Therefore a Clinical Decision Support System was developed to give support to the Obstetricians. In this article, we had proposed a robust method to explore and model a source of clinical information with the purpose of obtaining all possible knowledge. Generally, in classification models are difficult to know the contribution that each attribute provides to the model. We had worked in this direction to offer transparency to models that may be considered as black boxes. The positive results obtained from both the information recovery system and the predictions and explanations of the classification show the effectiveness and strength of this tool

Estimating the chance of success in IVF treatment using a ranking algorithm

In medicine, estimating the chance of success for treatment is important in deciding whether to begin the treatment or not. This paper focuses on the domain of in vitro fertilization (IVF), where estimating the outcome of a treatment is very crucial in the decision to proceed with treatment for both the clinicians and the infertile couples. IVF treatment is a stressful and costly process. It is very stressful for couples who want to have a baby. If an initial evaluation indicates a low pregnancy rate, decision of the couple may change not to start the IVF treatment. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly, to develop a technique that can be used to estimate the chance of success for a couple who wants to have a baby and secondly, to determine the attributes and their particular values affecting the outcome in IVF treatment. We propose a new technique, called success estimation using a ranking algorithm (SERA), for estimating the success of a treatment using a ranking-based algorithm. The particular ranking algorithm used here is RIMARC. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with two well-known algorithms that assign class probabilities to query instances. The algorithms used in the comparison are Naïve Bayes Classifier and Random Forest. The comparison is done in terms of area under the ROC curve, accuracy and execution time, using tenfold stratified cross-validation. The results indicate that the proposed SERA algorithm has a potential to be used successfully to estimate the probability of success in medical treatment. © 2015, The Author(s)

Automatic Blastomere Recognition from a Single Embryo Image

The number of blastomeres of human day 3 embryos is one of the most important criteria for evaluating embryo viability. However, due to the transparency and overlap of blastomeres, it is a challenge to recognize blastomeres automatically using a single embryo image. This study proposes an approach based on least square curve fitting (LSCF) for automatic blastomere recognition from a single image. First, combining edge detection, deletion of multiple connected points, and dilation and erosion, an effective preprocessing method was designed to obtain part of blastomere edges that were singly connected. Next, an automatic recognition method for blastomeres was proposed using least square circle fitting. This algorithm was tested on 381 embryo microscopic images obtained from the eight-cell period, and the results were compared with those provided by experts. Embryos were recognized with a 0 error rate occupancy of 21.59%, and the ratio of embryos in which the false recognition number was less than or equal to 2 was 83.16%. This experiment demonstrated that our method could efficiently and rapidly recognize the number of blastomeres from a single embryo image without the need to reconstruct the three-dimensional model of the blastomeres first; this method is simple and efficient

Bayesian classification for the selection of in vitro human embryos using morphological and clinical data

In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a medically assisted reproduction technique that enables infertile couples to achieve successful pregnancy. Given the uncertainty of the treatment, we propose an intelligent decision support system based on supervised classification by Bayesian classifiers to aid to the selection of the most promising embryos that will form the batch to be transferred to the woman’s uterus. The aim of the supervised classification system is to improve overall success rate of each IVF treatment in which a batch of embryos is transferred each time, where the success is achieved when implantation (i.e. pregnancy) is obtained. Due to ethical reasons, different legislative restrictions apply in every country on this technique. In Spain, legislation allows a maximum of three embryos to form each transfer batch. As a result, clinicians prefer to select the embryos by non-invasive embryo examination based on simple methods and observation focused on morphology and dynamics of embryo development after fertilization. This paper proposes the application of Bayesian classifiers to this embryo selection problem in order to provide a decision support system that allows a more accurate selection than with the actual procedures which fully rely on the expertise and experience of embryologists. For this, we propose to take into consideration a reduced subset of feature variables related to embryo morphology and clinical data of patients, and from this data to induce Bayesian classification models. Results obtained applying a filter technique to choose the subset of variables, and the performance of Bayesian classifiers using them, are presented