21,044 research outputs found
Learning the structure of Bayesian Networks: A quantitative assessment of the effect of different algorithmic schemes
One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is
the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the
huge search space of possible solutions, and by the fact that the problem is
NP-hard. Hence, full enumeration of all the possible solutions is not always
feasible and approximations are often required. However, to the best of our
knowledge, a quantitative analysis of the performance and characteristics of
the different heuristics to solve this problem has never been done before.
For this reason, in this work, we provide a detailed comparison of many
different state-of-the-arts methods for structural learning on simulated data
considering both BNs with discrete and continuous variables, and with different
rates of noise in the data. In particular, we investigate the performance of
different widespread scores and algorithmic approaches proposed for the
inference and the statistical pitfalls within them
Efficient computational strategies to learn the structure of probabilistic graphical models of cumulative phenomena
Structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is a NP-hard problem, which is
further complicated by many theoretical issues, such as the I-equivalence among
different structures. In this work, we focus on a specific subclass of BNs,
named Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs), which include specific structural
constraints based on Suppes' probabilistic causation to efficiently model
cumulative phenomena. Here we compare the performance, via extensive
simulations, of various state-of-the-art search strategies, such as local
search techniques and Genetic Algorithms, as well as of distinct regularization
methods. The assessment is performed on a large number of simulated datasets
from topologies with distinct levels of complexity, various sample size and
different rates of errors in the data. Among the main results, we show that the
introduction of Suppes' constraints dramatically improve the inference
accuracy, by reducing the solution space and providing a temporal ordering on
the variables. We also report on trade-offs among different search techniques
that can be efficiently employed in distinct experimental settings. This
manuscript is an extended version of the paper "Structural Learning of
Probabilistic Graphical Models of Cumulative Phenomena" presented at the 2018
International Conference on Computational Science
Modeling cumulative biological phenomena with Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks
Several diseases related to cell proliferation are characterized by the
accumulation of somatic DNA changes, with respect to wildtype conditions.
Cancer and HIV are two common examples of such diseases, where the mutational
load in the cancerous/viral population increases over time. In these cases,
selective pressures are often observed along with competition, cooperation and
parasitism among distinct cellular clones. Recently, we presented a
mathematical framework to model these phenomena, based on a combination of
Bayesian inference and Suppes' theory of probabilistic causation, depicted in
graphical structures dubbed Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs). SBCNs are
generative probabilistic graphical models that recapitulate the potential
ordering of accumulation of such DNA changes during the progression of the
disease. Such models can be inferred from data by exploiting likelihood-based
model-selection strategies with regularization. In this paper we discuss the
theoretical foundations of our approach and we investigate in depth the
influence on the model-selection task of: (i) the poset based on Suppes' theory
and (ii) different regularization strategies. Furthermore, we provide an
example of application of our framework to HIV genetic data highlighting the
valuable insights provided by the inferred
Leak localization in water distribution networks using pressure and data-driven classifier approach
Leaks in water distribution networks (WDNs) are one of the main reasons for water loss during fluid transportation. Considering the worldwide problem of water scarcity, added to the challenges that a growing population brings, minimizing water losses through leak detection and localization, timely and efficiently using advanced techniques is an urgent humanitarian need. There are numerous methods being used to localize water leaks in WDNs through constructing hydraulic models or analyzing flow/pressure deviations between the observed data and the estimated values. However, from the application perspective, it is very practical to implement an approach which does not rely too much on measurements and complex models with reasonable computation demand. Under this context, this paper presents a novel method for leak localization which uses a data-driven approach based on limit pressure measurements in WDNs with two stages included: (1) Two different machine learning classifiers based on linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and neural networks (NNET) are developed to determine the probabilities of each node having a leak inside a WDN; (2) Bayesian temporal reasoning is applied afterwards to rescale the probabilities of each possible leak location at each time step after a leak is detected, with the aim of improving the localization accuracy. As an initial illustration, the hypothetical benchmark Hanoi district metered area (DMA) is used as the case study to test the performance of the proposed approach. Using the fitting accuracy and average topological distance (ATD) as performance indicators, the preliminary results reaches more than 80% accuracy in the best cases.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version
A survey of statistical network models
Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for
discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of
network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of
study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation.
Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in
social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an
active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort
moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past
decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and
computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online
networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of
more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in
the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide
the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an
overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then
we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network
literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static
and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal
model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of
parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open
problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.Comment: 96 pages, 14 figures, 333 reference
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