The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution

Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution. As shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement. Given its participatory nature, key actors are mobilised to form shared views about the future, negotiate their future stakes and interests, and agree on actions aligned to their shared vision. The next production revolution requires quick and proactive policy-making, as well as better orchestration across different policy domains. Foresight can assist policy-makers by providing foundations for robust policies, fostering new framing of policy issues, as well as translating long-term concerns into aligned policy priorities. Furthermore, policy implementation is likely to be faster and more effective when key stakeholders are involved early on in shaping these policies. Foresight benefits, however, are far from being automatic: the chapter considers eight factors critical to achieving those. An astute embedding of a foresight process into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions

Participatory approaches to foresight and priority-setting in innovation networks

In innovation networks, participatory foresight activities can typically have several functions. They can be seen as a tool for supporting decision-making on science and technology (S&T) priorities, but they can also be expected to contribute to the structures of a network beyond the scope of decision making. Foresight activities are often limited by tight timeframes, budgets and they need to be synchronized with other S&T processes. In this setting there is a need for tools that reflect foresight process owners' visions on trade-offs between objectives that are more important than others, and goals that can be achieved, given relevant constraints. This thesis develops, deploys and analyzes decision analytic methodologies for participatory foresight and priority-setting. The methodology enables foresight managers to adjust their foresight process to serve multiple goals and place emphasis on the objectives that are seen as most important. Foresight processes can be adjusted to meet the desired objectives by i) selecting a suitable "unit of analysis" for the analysis and discussion, ii) defining an appropriate composition of stakeholders for the different phases of the process, iii) different uses of decision analytic methodologies and iv) varying emphases on internet surveys, decision analysis, and face-to-face workshops. This thesis consists of six articles, where variants of the methodology are applied in different contexts. The articles include reflections from foresight activities carried out in support of management processes in Finnish industry clusters and in international research programs. They also include case studies from public S&T policy making, supporting the identification of small niche areas as well as providing input for decision-making on national innovation policies

Facing the future : scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning

Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenen (http://www.nationallizenz.ch)In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise ‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges’ which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors. This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues; the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters; and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures. In order to achieve such objectives, horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues. Furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight

The 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision Making

Following the success of 2004 and 2006 events, the International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) has become a major occasion for FTA experts, practitioners and decision-makers to bring their ideas and knowledge together in a highly interactive environment. Building upon this experience, JRC-IPTS organises the 2008 FTA Conference with specific focus on the ¿impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making¿. As with previous FTA events, the 2008 Conference places emphasis on diversity of views by attracting participants from a wide geographical base. Academics, practitioners as well as public and private sector decision makers from Europe, North America, Asia, Latin America, Africa and Australasia are invited to broaden the network and to increase understanding of advances in the field of FTA. During the conference posters and papers will be presented within 5 different themes. This book of abstracts gives an overview of all paper abstracts and poster's brief that will be presented during, and will be used as a conference guide by participants of the conference.JRC.J.3-Knowledge for Growt

Miten edistää hallituksen ja eduskunnan välistä tulevaisuusdialogia?

Tässä raportissa kuvataan, miten kansallista tulevaisuustyötä ja ennakointia voidaan tehdä yksittäisten projektien sijaan jatkuvana toimintana. Raportissa esitellään systeemisen ennakointitoiminnan malli, jonka avulla voidaan paremmin ottaa huomioon tiedon, osaamisen ja verkostojen samanaikaisen kehittämisen tarpeet. Raportin tavoitteena on antaa tietoperusta kansallisen tulevaisuustyön uudistamiseen ja palveluiden, toimintatapojen ja työkalujen valintaan. Raportti ja malli auttavat ymmärtämään ja hahmottamaan hallituksen ja eduskunnan välistä dialogia erityisesti tulevaisuuteen liittyen. Tämä dialogi lopulta muokkaa Suomen tulevaisuutta, joten on tärkeää, että se on läpinäkyvää, siinä käytetään kulloiseenkin tilanteeseen soveltuvia ennakoinnin menetelmiä, ja siinä hyödynnetään olemassa olevaa tietoa. Malli tarjoaa sekä työkaluja että ajattelutapoja tähän

Projecting Opportunities for INdustrial Transitions (POINT): Concepts, rationales and methodological guidelines for territorial reviews of industrial transition

This report provides guidelines with respect to concepts, rationales and methodological considerations aimed at experts conducting territorial reviews of industrial transition and at policy makers and analysts with an interest in the operationalisation of transformative industrial innovation. It explains the concepts necessary to adopt a wider framing of the production and consumption system, the rationales for (and objectives of) reviews useful for transformative industrial innovation, and the POINT (Projecting Opportunities for INdustrial Transitions) methodology presented as a series of steps. The concepts section outlines a framework that allows Smart Specialisation Strategies (S3) to be mobilised in ways that are in keeping with vanguard thinking and international practice on system innovation and new industrial policies. Doing so requires reframing the domain of policy action, broadening it to cover the entire production and consumption system. When a wider view of the production and consumption system is taken, previously unidentified interconnections between its constituent parts can become obvious. Importantly, these interconnections represent points of powerful policy leverage, if their identification enables coordinated and timely action. Successful transition management requires strategic directions that draw upon territorial values (in addition to economic strengths); a concern with multiple-value creation (economic, social, environmental); the management of demand (public procurement, households); understanding and managing resistance to change; and ways of satisfying the very different needs and ambitions of a great number of actors with unequal power over the system. The rationales section argues that transitions require clarity of purpose and a new paradigm of thinking and acting in the face of transformative change. A confluence of maturing trends, including the availability of funding and an increasing readiness to deploy the full panoply of industrial policy instruments, can allow territories to benefit from new opportunities and manage the threats. As deep structural change is often accompanied by social transformation, these transitions represent a chance not just to cater for the economic growth imperative but also to respond to growing social demands to maintain dignified, fulfilling, and well-remunerated employment, empower traditionally disadvantaged groups and achieve sustainability. However, this is not a likely outcome in the absence of preparation and a preparedness to act. Obtaining legitimacy and resources for pursuing transformative change requires alternative framings as to why and how policy can yield desirable outcomes. The section also explains how the perspective taken has been motivated by the needs of lagging and other regions that suffer from long-term lock-in to economic activities with limited opportunities for branching within predictable timeframes. For these, as well as many other regions, new pathways for industrial development supported by multi-level coordination, planning and interventions are necessary. The territorial reviews can produce relevant evidence that is difficult to obtain otherwise. The section on the POINT methodology presents suggestions on the framing, procedure and conduct of the reviews. The reviews focus on an industrial theme of growing global importance suggested by the relevant territorial authorities (for instance, but not confined to: climate change/renewable energy; electrification of transport; circular economy; digitalisation; artificial intelligence). The purpose of the reviews is to collect evidence and examine the scope for developing adequate territorial responses that harness cross-portfolio complementarities (e.g. between ministries and between levels of governance) and cross-stakeholder coordination (e.g. between businesses and broad constituencies of consumers/users). In each territory under review and for an industrial theme suggested by the authorities the review findings are documented in a report that serves to: (a) Map the affected orientation, resource mobilisation, production and consumption systems in the territory; (b) Document existing planning arrangements and directions of deliberate change (e.g. as described in thematic policy and business strategies, or evident in momentum-gathering social concerns and movements, consumer trends, common territorial values etc.) of various stakeholders in the affected systems that could later form the basis for a broadly-supported transition vision; (c) Make concrete suggestions for the advancement of the transition and for managing its downsides. Given the nature and magnitude of the transition challenge, adequate territorial responses will include not just research and innovation policies that are already part of S3, but also industrial and employment policies more generally, including provisions for education and skills, for complementary large public infrastructures (e.g. in energy, transport, waste), urban planning, fiscal policy and social security reform, among others. The recommendations of the review therefore place a particular emphasis on fostering alignment and coordination within government. The reviews aim to build the evidence base for appropriate "Actions to Manage Industrial Transitions", as stipulated in fulfilment criterion No.6 of the enabling condition of good governance foreseen in the next multi-annual financing period of the EU Structural Funds (without prejudice to the final decision of the European Commission). The reviews can further inform the design and implementation of S3 [e.g. refining or extending priorities, broadening the Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP), fostering synergies with other funding streams] as well as informing, and been informed by, industrial policies and other territorial strategies for economic, social and sustainable development. More broadly, the reviews can be an input to a participatory process of stakeholder engagement leading to the development of credible positive visions for the future that can be the source of pride and inspiration for the region (or country) and a rallying point for the mobilisation of actors and resources from all levels.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

Foresight Programs for Educational Policy: Program Participants' Perceptions and Experiences with Outcomes.

University of Minnesota Ph.D. dissertation. August 2019. Major: Organizational Leadership, Policy, and Development. Advisor: Karen Seashore. 1 computer file (PDF); xiv, 216 pages.Increasingly rapid technological and social changes pose significant challenges for educators and educational policymakers in Iceland. To address these challenges, Icelandic policymakers implemented two foresight programs intended to provide anticipatory intelligence and promote long-term perspectives for educational policymaking. Foresight programs are intended to produce intelligence and capacities that encourage stakeholder organizations to adopt long-term perspectives regarding policy change and development. Foresight outcomes have been categorized as: immediate outcomes, resulting from initial program activities; intermediate outcomes, resulting from the transfer of immediate outcomes to stakeholder organizations; and ultimate outcomes, that are expected to occur over the long-term. This multi-methods case study examined two foresight programs implemented in Iceland, the Iceland 2020 program and the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture's foresight program on technology and education. The programs were implemented to explore, and address, future challenges relating to education, and in the case of the Iceland 2020 program, other related issues. The study used Engeström's (1999) Cultural-Historical Activity Theory (CHAT) to explore how immediate foresight outcomes were transferred from program contexts to program participants' organizational contexts and their affects on organizations. The study included a survey and semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed using the constant comparative method to develop themes as they emerged. The data were further analyzed using the CHAT framework to explore the processes that were involved in the transfer of immediate foresight outcomes between the program and organizational contexts. The findings suggest that foresight program coordinators and planners need to ensure that program participants have a sufficient understanding of foresight and futures methods to recognize immediate foresight outcomes and how to engage others within their organizations with them. The outcomes of the study provide an empirical foundation for extending current models of foresight processes and outcomes as they relate to educational policy. Furthermore, they help to better inform foresight program coordinators and planners to ensure that program objectives are met