Partition MCMC for inference on acyclic digraphs

Acyclic digraphs are the underlying representation of Bayesian networks, a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models. Learning the underlying graph from data is a way of gaining insights about the structural properties of a domain. Structure learning forms one of the inference challenges of statistical graphical models. MCMC methods, notably structure MCMC, to sample graphs from the posterior distribution given the data are probably the only viable option for Bayesian model averaging. Score modularity and restrictions on the number of parents of each node allow the graphs to be grouped into larger collections, which can be scored as a whole to improve the chain's convergence. Current examples of algorithms taking advantage of grouping are the biased order MCMC, which acts on the alternative space of permuted triangular matrices, and non ergodic edge reversal moves. Here we propose a novel algorithm, which employs the underlying combinatorial structure of DAGs to define a new grouping. As a result convergence is improved compared to structure MCMC, while still retaining the property of producing an unbiased sample. Finally the method can be combined with edge reversal moves to improve the sampler further.Comment: Revised version. 34 pages, 16 figures. R code available at https://github.com/annlia/partitionMCM

Any-k: Anytime Top-k Tree Pattern Retrieval in Labeled Graphs

Many problems in areas as diverse as recommendation systems, social network analysis, semantic search, and distributed root cause analysis can be modeled as pattern search on labeled graphs (also called "heterogeneous information networks" or HINs). Given a large graph and a query pattern with node and edge label constraints, a fundamental challenge is to nd the top-k matches ac- cording to a ranking function over edge and node weights. For users, it is di cult to select value k . We therefore propose the novel notion of an any-k ranking algorithm: for a given time budget, re- turn as many of the top-ranked results as possible. Then, given additional time, produce the next lower-ranked results quickly as well. It can be stopped anytime, but may have to continues until all results are returned. This paper focuses on acyclic patterns over arbitrary labeled graphs. We are interested in practical algorithms that effectively exploit (1) properties of heterogeneous networks, in particular selective constraints on labels, and (2) that the users often explore only a fraction of the top-ranked results. Our solution, KARPET, carefully integrates aggressive pruning that leverages the acyclic nature of the query, and incremental guided search. It enables us to prove strong non-trivial time and space guarantees, which is generally considered very hard for this type of graph search problem. Through experimental studies we show that KARPET achieves running times in the order of milliseconds for tree patterns on large networks with millions of nodes and edges.Comment: To appear in WWW 201

Structural Agnostic Modeling: Adversarial Learning of Causal Graphs

A new causal discovery method, Structural Agnostic Modeling (SAM), is presented in this paper. Leveraging both conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries in the data, SAM aims at recovering full causal models from continuous observational data along a multivariate non-parametric setting. The approach is based on a game between $d$ players estimating each variable distribution conditionally to the others as a neural net, and an adversary aimed at discriminating the overall joint conditional distribution, and that of the original data. An original learning criterion combining distribution estimation, sparsity and acyclicity constraints is used to enforce the end-to-end optimization of the graph structure and parameters through stochastic gradient descent. Besides the theoretical analysis of the approach in the large sample limit, SAM is extensively experimentally validated on synthetic and real data

Bayesian optimization of the PC algorithm for learning Gaussian Bayesian networks

The PC algorithm is a popular method for learning the structure of Gaussian Bayesian networks. It carries out statistical tests to determine absent edges in the network. It is hence governed by two parameters: (i) The type of test, and (ii) its significance level. These parameters are usually set to values recommended by an expert. Nevertheless, such an approach can suffer from human bias, leading to suboptimal reconstruction results. In this paper we consider a more principled approach for choosing these parameters in an automatic way. For this we optimize a reconstruction score evaluated on a set of different Gaussian Bayesian networks. This objective is expensive to evaluate and lacks a closed-form expression, which means that Bayesian optimization (BO) is a natural choice. BO methods use a model to guide the search and are hence able to exploit smoothness properties of the objective surface. We show that the parameters found by a BO method outperform those found by a random search strategy and the expert recommendation. Importantly, we have found that an often overlooked statistical test provides the best over-all reconstruction results