Automatic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Procedures for Sampling from Multivariate Distributions

Generating samples from multivariate distributions efficiently is an important task in Monte Carlo integration and many other stochastic simulation problems. Markov chain Monte Carlo has been shown to be very efficient compared to "conventional methods", especially when many dimensions are involved. In this article we propose a Hit-and-Run sampler in combination with the Ratio-of-Uniforms method. We show that it is well suited for an algorithm to generate points from quite arbitrary distributions, which include all log-concave distributions. The algorithm works automatically in the sense that only the mode (or an approximation of it) and an oracle is required, i.e., a subroutine that returns the value of the density function at any point x. We show that the number of evaluations of the density increases slowly with dimension. (author's abstract)Series: Preprint Series / Department of Applied Statistics and Data Processin

Two adaptive rejection sampling schemes for probability density functions log-convex tails

Monte Carlo methods are often necessary for the implementation of optimal Bayesian estimators. A fundamental technique that can be used to generate samples from virtually any target probability distribution is the so-called rejection sampling method, which generates candidate samples from a proposal distribution and then accepts them or not by testing the ratio of the target and proposal densities. The class of adaptive rejection sampling (ARS) algorithms is particularly interesting because they can achieve high acceptance rates. However, the standard ARS method can only be used with log-concave target densities. For this reason, many generalizations have been proposed. In this work, we investigate two different adaptive schemes that can be used to draw exactly from a large family of univariate probability density functions (pdf's), not necessarily log-concave, possibly multimodal and with tails of arbitrary concavity. These techniques are adaptive in the sense that every time a candidate sample is rejected, the acceptance rate is improved. The two proposed algorithms can work properly when the target pdf is multimodal, with first and second derivatives analytically intractable, and when the tails are log-convex in a infinite domain. Therefore, they can be applied in a number of scenarios in which the other generalizations of the standard ARS fail. Two illustrative numerical examples are shown

On the Generalized Ratio of Uniforms as a Combination of Transformed Rejection and Extended Inverse of Density Sampling

Documento depositado en el repositorio arXiv.org. Versión: arXiv:1205.0482v6 [stat.CO]In this work we investigate the relationship among three classical sampling techniques: the inverse of density (Khintchine's theorem), the transformed rejection (TR) and the generalized ratio of uniforms (GRoU). Given a monotonic probability density function (PDF), we show that the transformed area obtained using the generalized ratio of uniforms method can be found equivalently by applying the transformed rejection sampling approach to the inverse function of the target density. Then we provide an extension of the classical inverse of density idea, showing that it is completely equivalent to the GRoU method for monotonic densities. Although we concentrate on monotonic probability density functions (PDFs), we also discuss how the results presented here can be extended to any non-monotonic PDF that can be decomposed into a collection of intervals where it is monotonically increasing or decreasing. In this general case, we show the connections with transformations of certain random variables and the generalized inverse PDF with the GRoU technique. Finally, we also introduce a GRoU technique to handle unbounded target densities

Developing a valid method to study adaptive behaviours with regard to IEQ in primary schools

Adaptive behaviour impacts the classroom's environment and the student's comfort. Therefore, a deep understanding of students' adaptive behaviour is required. This study aims to develop a valid and reliable method to realize how children in their late middle childhood (9–11) practise adaptive behaviours as a response to the classroom's Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ). A self-reported questionnaire accompanied with an observation form is designed based on children's ‘here and now’ sensations, their cognitive and linguistic competence. Validity and reliability of the questionnaire were tested by running pilot and field studies in eight primary schools from July 2017 to May 2018. Through transverse sampling, 805 children were observed, and 1390 questionnaires were collected in 31 classrooms. Questions and responses of the designed questionnaire were validated by monitoring answer-process, non-participant observations, cross-checking questions and statistical tests. Validating process improved the wording of the questions and response categories and resulted in a questionnaire with a high and valid response rate. The reliability of the questionnaire was tested by measuring the variability and standard deviations of responses under similar conditions. To conclude, the study introduces a questionnaire and an observation form that should be used together to provide a valid and reliable method for studying adaptive behaviour of primary school children

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Loss Reserves Data Using the Generalized-t Distribution

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the generalized-t (GT) distribution to predict loss reserves for the insurance companies. Existing models and methods cannot cope with irregular and extreme claims and hence do not offer an accurate prediction of loss reserves. To develop a more robust model for irregular claims, this paper extends the conventional normal error distribution to the GT distribution which nests several heavytailed distributions including the Student-t and exponential power distributions. It is shown that the GT distribution can be expressed as a scale mixture of uniforms (SMU) distribution which facilitates model implementation and detection of outliers by using mixing parameters. Different models for the mean function, including the log-ANOVA, log-ANCOVA, state space and threshold models, are adopted to analyze real loss reserves data. Finally, the best model is selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC).Bayesian approach; state space model; threshold model; scale mixtures of uniform distribution; device information criterion

Spectral Clustering of Mixed-Type Data

Cluster analysis seeks to assign objects with similar characteristics into groups called clusters so that objects within a group are similar to each other and dissimilar to objects in other groups. Spectral clustering has been shown to perform well in different scenarios on continuous data: it can detect convex and non-convex clusters, and can detect overlapping clusters. However, the constraint on continuous data can be limiting in real applications where data are often of mixed-type, i.e., data that contains both continuous and categorical features. This paper looks at extending spectral clustering to mixed-type data. The new method replaces the Euclidean-based similarity distance used in conventional spectral clustering with different dissimilarity measures for continuous and categorical variables. A global dissimilarity measure is than computed using a weighted sum, and a Gaussian kernel is used to convert the dissimilarity matrix into a similarity matrix. The new method includes an automatic tuning of the variable weight and kernel parameter. The performance of spectral clustering in different scenarios is compared with that of two state-of-the-art mixed-type data clustering methods, k-prototypes and KAMILA, using several simulated and real data sets