Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting using PSO-RBF Neural Network for Farmers Exchange Rate Improvement in Indonesia

Agricultural commodity price forecasting becomes important for farmers since the knowledge of agriculture commodity price fluctuation can help the farmers to identify the right selling time. Recently, the absence of such the forecasting system makes the farmers decide to sell their commodities to middlemen which in turn, reduces their exchange rate as the length of distribution flow is complicated. The length of distribution flow is started from farmers, middlemen, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers. To address this problem, a forecasting system based on radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is proposed. To optimize the network’s learning process, particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based learning technique is applied. The RBFNN is chosen because of its ability to generally track irregular signal changing, good speed in learning process and robustness. Meanwhile, the implementation of PSO aims to improve weight values towards global optimum in RBFNN model

Uncertainty and Interpretability Studies in Soft Computing with an Application to Complex Manufacturing Systems

In systems modelling and control theory, the benefits of applying neural networks have been extensively studied. Particularly in manufacturing processes, such as the prediction of mechanical properties of heat treated steels. However, modern industrial processes usually involve large amounts of data and a range of non-linear effects and interactions that might hinder their model interpretation. For example, in steel manufacturing the understanding of complex mechanisms that lead to the mechanical properties which are generated by the heat treatment process is vital. This knowledge is not available via numerical models, therefore an experienced metallurgist estimates the model parameters to obtain the required properties. This human knowledge and perception sometimes can be imprecise leading to a kind of cognitive uncertainty such as vagueness and ambiguity when making decisions. In system classification, this may be translated into a system deficiency - for example, small input changes in system attributes may result in a sudden and inappropriate change for class assignation. In order to address this issue, practitioners and researches have developed systems that are functional equivalent to fuzzy systems and neural networks. Such systems provide a morphology that mimics the human ability of reasoning via the qualitative aspects of fuzzy information rather by its quantitative analysis. Furthermore, these models are able to learn from data sets and to describe the associated interactions and non-linearities in the data. However, in a like-manner to neural networks, a neural fuzzy system may suffer from a lost of interpretability and transparency when making decisions. This is mainly due to the application of adaptive approaches for its parameter identification. Since the RBF-NN can be treated as a fuzzy inference engine, this thesis presents several methodologies that quantify different types of uncertainty and its influence on the model interpretability and transparency of the RBF-NN during its parameter identification. Particularly, three kind of uncertainty sources in relation to the RBF-NN are studied, namely: entropy, fuzziness and ambiguity. First, a methodology based on Granular Computing (GrC), neutrosophic sets and the RBF-NN is presented. The objective of this methodology is to quantify the hesitation produced during the granular compression at the low level of interpretability of the RBF-NN via the use of neutrosophic sets. This study also aims to enhance the disitnguishability and hence the transparency of the initial fuzzy partition. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested against a real case study for the prediction of the properties of heat-treated steels. Secondly, a new Interval Type-2 Radial Basis Function Neural Network (IT2-RBF-NN) is introduced as a new modelling framework. The IT2-RBF-NN takes advantage of the functional equivalence between FLSs of type-1 and the RBF-NN so as to construct an Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2-FLS) that is able to deal with linguistic uncertainty and perceptions in the RBF-NN rule base. This gave raise to different combinations when optimising the IT2-RBF-NN parameters. Finally, a twofold study for uncertainty assessment at the high-level of interpretability of the RBF-NN is provided. On the one hand, the first study proposes a new methodology to quantify the a) fuzziness and the b) ambiguity at each RU, and during the formation of the rule base via the use of neutrosophic sets theory. The aim of this methodology is to calculate the associated fuzziness of each rule and then the ambiguity related to each normalised consequence of the fuzzy rules that result from the overlapping and to the choice with one-to-many decisions respectively. On the other hand, a second study proposes a new methodology to quantify the entropy and the fuzziness that come out from the redundancy phenomenon during the parameter identification. To conclude this work, the experimental results obtained through the application of the proposed methodologies for modelling two well-known benchmark data sets and for the prediction of mechanical properties of heat-treated steels conducted to publication of three articles in two peer-reviewed journals and one international conference

Action Generalization in Humanoid Robots Through Artificial Intelligence With Learning From Demonstration

Mención Internacional en el título de doctorAction Generalization is the ability to adapt an action to different contexts and environments. In humans, this ability is taken for granted. Robots are yet far from achieving the human level of Action Generalization. Current robotic frameworks are limited frameworks that are only able to work in the small range of contexts and environments for which they were programmed. One of the reasons why we do not have a robot in our house yet is because every house is different. In this thesis, two different approaches to improve the Action Generalization capabilities of robots are proposed. First, a study of different methods to improve the performance of the Continuous Goal-Directed Actions framework within highly dynamic real world environments is presented. Continuous Goal-Directed Actions is a Learning from Demonstration framework based on the idea of encoding actions as the effects these actions produce on the environment. No robot kinematic information is required for the encoding of actions. This improves the generalization capabilities of robots by solving the correspondence problem. This problem is related to the execution of the same action with different kinematics. The second approach is the proposition of the Neural Policy Style Transfer framework. The goal of this framework is to achieve Action Generalization by providing the robot the ability to introduce Styles within robotic actions. This allows the robot to adapt one action to different contexts with the introduction of different Styles. Neural Style Transfer was originally proposed as a way to perform Style Transfer between images. Neural Policy Style Transfer proposes the introduction of Neural Style Transfer within robotic actions. The structure of this document was designed with the goal of depicting the continuous research work that this thesis has been. Every time a new approach is proposed, the reasons why this was considered the best new step based on the experimental results obtained are provided. Each approach can be studied separately and, at the same time, they are presented as part of the larger research project from which they are part. Solving the problem of Action Generalization is currently a too ambitious goal for any single research project. The goal of this thesis is to make finding this solution one step closer.Programa de Doctorado en Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica y Automática por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: Saffiotti Alessandro.- Secretario: Santiago Martínez de la Casa Díaz.- Vocal: Fernando Torres Medin

Context dependent fuzzy modelling and its applications

Fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBS) use the principle of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic to describe vague and imprecise statements and provide a facility to express the behaviours of the system with a human-understandable language. Fuzzy information, once defined by a fuzzy system, is fixed regardless of the circumstances and therefore makes it very difficult to capture the effect of context on the meaning of the fuzzy terms. While efforts have been made to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets, it remains the case that often the context model is very restrictive and/or problem specific. The work reported in this thesis is our attempt to create a practical frame work to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets so as to improve the interpretability as well as the accuracy of the fuzzy system. Throughout this thesis, we have looked at the capability of the proposed context dependent fuzzy sets as a stand alone as well as in combination with other methods in various application scenarios ranging from time series forecasting to complicated car racing control systems. In all of the applications, the highly competitive performance nature of our approach has proven its effectiveness and efficiency compared with existing techniques in the literature

Risk prediction analysis for post-surgical complications in cardiothoracic surgery

Cardiothoracic surgery patients have the risk of developing surgical site infections (SSIs), which causes hospital readmissions, increases healthcare costs and may lead to mortality. The first 30 days after hospital discharge are crucial for preventing these kind of infections. As an alternative to a hospital-based diagnosis, an automatic digital monitoring system can help with the early detection of SSIs by analyzing daily images of patient’s wounds. However, analyzing a wound automatically is one of the biggest challenges in medical image analysis. The proposed system is integrated into a research project called CardioFollowAI, which developed a digital telemonitoring service to follow-up the recovery of cardiothoracic surgery patients. This present work aims to tackle the problem of SSIs by predicting the existence of worrying alterations in wound images taken by patients, with the help of machine learning and deep learning algorithms. The developed system is divided into a segmentation model which detects the wound region area and categorizes the wound type, and a classification model which predicts the occurrence of alterations in the wounds. The dataset consists of 1337 images with chest wounds (WC), drainage wounds (WD) and leg wounds (WL) from 34 cardiothoracic surgery patients. For segmenting the images, an architecture with a Mobilenet encoder and an Unet decoder was used to obtain the regions of interest (ROI) and attribute the wound class. The following model was divided into three sub-classifiers for each wound type, in order to improve the model’s performance. Color and textural features were extracted from the wound’s ROIs to feed one of the three machine learning classifiers (random Forest, support vector machine and K-nearest neighbors), that predict the final output. The segmentation model achieved a final mean IoU of 89.9%, a dice coefficient of 94.6% and a mean average precision of 90.1%, showing good results. As for the algorithms that performed classification, the WL classifier exhibited the best results with a 87.6% recall and 52.6% precision, while WC classifier achieved a 71.4% recall and 36.0% precision. The WD had the worst performance with a 68.4% recall and 33.2% precision. The obtained results demonstrate the feasibility of this solution, which can be a start for preventing SSIs through image analysis with artificial intelligence.Os pacientes submetidos a uma cirurgia cardiotorácica tem o risco de desenvolver infeções no local da ferida cirúrgica, o que pode consequentemente levar a readmissões hospitalares, ao aumento dos custos na saúde e à mortalidade. Os primeiros 30 dias após a alta hospitalar são cruciais na prevenção destas infecções. Assim, como alternativa ao diagnóstico no hospital, a utilização diária de um sistema digital e automático de monotorização em imagens de feridas cirúrgicas pode ajudar na precoce deteção destas infeções. No entanto, a análise automática de feridas é um dos grandes desafios em análise de imagens médicas. O sistema proposto integra um projeto de investigação designado CardioFollow.AI, que desenvolveu um serviço digital de telemonitorização para realizar o follow-up da recuperação dos pacientes de cirurgia cardiotorácica. Neste trabalho, o problema da infeção de feridas cirúrgicas é abordado, através da deteção de alterações preocupantes na ferida com ajuda de algoritmos de aprendizagem automática. O sistema desenvolvido divide-se num modelo de segmentação, que deteta a região da ferida e a categoriza consoante o seu tipo, e num modelo de classificação que prevê a existência de alterações na ferida. O conjunto de dados consistiu em 1337 imagens de feridas do peito (WC), feridas dos tubos de drenagem (WD) e feridas da perna (WL), provenientes de 34 pacientes de cirurgia cardiotorácica. A segmentação de imagem foi realizada através da combinação de Mobilenet como codificador e Unet como decodificador, de forma a obter-se as regiões de interesse e atribuir a classe da ferida. O modelo seguinte foi dividido em três subclassificadores para cada tipo de ferida, de forma a melhorar a performance do modelo. Caraterísticas de cor e textura foram extraídas da região da ferida para serem introduzidas num dos modelos de aprendizagem automática de forma a prever a classificação final (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and K-Nearest Neighbors). O modelo de segmentação demonstrou bons resultados ao obter um IoU médio final de 89.9%, um dice de 94.6% e uma média de precisão de 90.1%. Relativamente aos algoritmos que realizaram a classificação, o classificador WL exibiu os melhores resultados com 87.6% de recall e 62.6% de precisão, enquanto o classificador das WC conseguiu um recall de 71.4% e 36.0% de precisão. Por fim, o classificador das WD teve a pior performance com um recall de 68.4% e 33.2% de precisão. Os resultados obtidos demonstram a viabilidade desta solução, que constitui o início da prevenção de infeções em feridas cirúrgica a partir da análise de imagem, com recurso a inteligência artificial

Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks - OMCO NET

The mini conference “Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks” focuses on advanced methods for search and optimisation applied to wireless communication networks. It is sponsored by Research & Enterprise Fund Southampton Solent University. The conference strives to widen knowledge on advanced search methods capable of optimisation of wireless communications networks. The aim is to provide a forum for exchange of recent knowledge, new ideas and trends in this progressive and challenging area. The conference will popularise new successful approaches on resolving hard tasks such as minimisation of transmit power, cooperative and optimal routing

Context dependent fuzzy modelling and its applications

Fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBS) use the principle of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic to describe vague and imprecise statements and provide a facility to express the behaviours of the system with a human-understandable language. Fuzzy information, once defined by a fuzzy system, is fixed regardless of the circumstances and therefore makes it very difficult to capture the effect of context on the meaning of the fuzzy terms. While efforts have been made to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets, it remains the case that often the context model is very restrictive and/or problem specific. The work reported in this thesis is our attempt to create a practical frame work to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets so as to improve the interpretability as well as the accuracy of the fuzzy system. Throughout this thesis, we have looked at the capability of the proposed context dependent fuzzy sets as a stand alone as well as in combination with other methods in various application scenarios ranging from time series forecasting to complicated car racing control systems. In all of the applications, the highly competitive performance nature of our approach has proven its effectiveness and efficiency compared with existing techniques in the literature

A design of higher-level control based genetic algorithms for wastewater treatment plants

A wastewater treatment plant facilitates various processes (e.g., physical, chemical and biological) to treat industrial wastewater and remove pollutants. This topic recently encourages much attention in different fields to explore suitable methods to be able to remove chemical or biological elements from wastewater. This paper presents a novel genetic based control algorithm for biological wastewater treatment plants, intending to improve the quality of the effluent, and reduce the costs of operation. The proposed controller allows adjusting the dissolved oxygen in the last basin, , according to the operational conditions, instead of maintaining it at a constant value. genetic algorithm (GA) is used in the higher-level control design to verify the desired value of the lower level based on the Ammonium and ammonia nitrogen concentration in the fourth tank, , concentration values in the fourth tank. In order to modify the tuning parameters of the higher level, an adjustment region is determined. Consequently, the effluent quality is improved, help to decrease the total operational cost. Simulation results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method