A suite of inflation forecasting models

En este trabajo se describen los modelos econométricos utilizados por el Banco de España para hacer el seguimiento de la inflación y prever sus tendencias futuras. La estrategia empleada se fundamenta en gran medida en los resultados de un conjunto de modelos econométricos, que se complementa con el juicio de expertos. Se consideran tres tipos diferentes de enfoques y se destaca la relevancia de la heterogeneidad en la determinación de precios y la importancia de utilizar modelos que permitan una evolución lenta de la media local cuando se prevé la inflaciónThis paper describes the econometric models used by the Banco de España to monitor consumer price inflation and forecast its future trends. The strategy followed heavily relies on the results from a set of econometric models, supplemented by expert judgment. We consider three different types of approaches and highlight the relevance of heterogeneity in price-setting behaviour and the importance of using models that allow for a slowly evolving local mean when forecasting inflatio

Optimising supermarket promotions of fast moving consumer goods using disaggregated sales data: A case study of Tesco and their small and medium sized suppliers

The use of price promotions for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG’s) by supermarkets has increased substantially over the last decade, with significant implications for all stakeholders (suppliers, service providers & retailers) in terms of profitability and waste. The overall impact of price promotions depends on the complex interplay of demand and supply side factors, which has received limited attention in the academic literature. There is anecdotal evidence that in many cases, and particularly for products supplied by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), price promotions are implemented with limited understanding of these factors, resulting in missed opportunities for sales and the generation of avoidable promotional waste. This is particularly dangerous for SMEs who are often operating with tight margins and limited resources. A better understanding of consumer demand, through the use of disaggregated sales data (by shopper segment and store type) can facilitate more accurate forecasting of promotional uplifts and more effective allocation of stock, to maximise promotional sales and minimise promotional waste. However, there is little evidence that disaggregated data is widely or routinely used by supermarkets or their suppliers, particularly for those products supplied by SMEs. Moreover, the bulk of the published research regarding the impact of price promotions is either focussed on modelling consumer response, using claimed behaviour or highly aggregated scanner data or replenishment processes (frameworks and models) that bear little resemblance to the way in which the majority of food SMEs operate. This thesis explores the scope for improving the planning and execution of supermarket promotions, in the specific context of products supplied by SME, through the use of dis-aggregated sales data to forecast promotional sales and allocate promotional stock. An innovative case study methodology is used combining qualitative research to explore the promotional processes used by SMEs supplying the UK’s largest supermarket, Tesco, and simulation modelling, using supermarket loyalty card data and store level sales data, to estimate short term promotional impacts under different scenarios and derive optimize stock allocations using mixed integer linear programming (MILP). ii The results suggest that promotions are often designed, planned and executed with little formalised analysis or use of dis-aggregated sales data and with limited consideration of the interplay between supply and demand. The simulation modelling and MILP demonstrate the benefits of using supermarket loyalty card data and store level sales data to forecast demand and allocate stocks, through higher promotional uplifts and reduced levels of promotional wast

A conceptual framework for supply chain collaboration:empirical evidence from the agri-food industry

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the concept of supply chain collaboration and to provide an overall framework that can be used as a conceptual landmark for further empirical research. In addition, the concept is explored in the context of agri-food industry and particularities are identified. Finally, the paper submits empirical evidence from an exploratory case study in the agri-food industry, at the grower-processor interface, and information regarding the way the concept is actually applied in small medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is presented. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employed case study research by conducting in-depth interviews in the two companies. Findings - Supply chain collaboration concept is of significant importance for the agri-food industry however, some constraints arise due to the nature of industry's products, and the specific structure of the sector. Subsequently, collaboration in the supply chain is often limited to operational issues and to logistics-related activities. Research limitations/implications - Research is limited to a single case study and further qualitative testing of the conceptual model is needed in order to adjust the model before large scale testing. Practical implications - Case study findings may be transferable to other similar dual relationships at the grower-processor interface. Weaker parts in asymmetric relationships have opportunities to improve their position, altering the dependence balance, by achieving product/process excellence. Originality/value - The paper provides evidence regarding the applicability of the supply chain collaboration concept in the agri-food industry. It takes into consideration not relationships between big multinational companies, but SMEs

Exploring Attractive Quality Requirements for Short Food Supply Chain Digital Platforms

© 2022. This article published as an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and production in any medium, provided the author of the original work and original publication source are properly credited.Perceptions towards unsustainable supply chain practices in global, mainstream food systems are motivating a shift towards short food supply chains. Short food supply chains are developed to remove the physical and social distances between producer and consumer. Advances in digital technologies offer promise for short food supply chains, including platforms that can enable real-time data flow, create visibility, and support sustainable practices. This research aims to prioritise attractive quality requirements of short food supply chain digital platforms. The methodology consists of a literature review and Kano analysis for requirements prioritisation. The results show that the requirements span across the four Kano categories, attractive quality encompassing the largest number of requirements. The attractive quality requirements identified offer increased levels of satisfaction when present and have limited negative impact when missing. Therefore, they are considered exciting for potential users of a system. The limitations of the research and areas of future work are presented.Peer reviewe

Annotated Bibliography of Generic Commodity Promotion Research (Revised)

A.E. Res. 91-