Phylodynamics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Europe, 2005-2010: Potential for Molecular Surveillance of New Outbreaks.

Previous Bayesian phylogeographic studies of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) explored the origin and spread of the epidemic from China into Russia, indicating that HPAIV circulated in Russia prior to its detection there in 2005. In this study, we extend this research to explore the evolution and spread of HPAIV within Europe during the 2005-2010 epidemic, using all available sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene regions that were collected in Europe and Russia during the outbreak. We use discrete-trait phylodynamic models within a Bayesian statistical framework to explore the evolution of HPAIV. Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and effective population size of HPAIV peaked between mid-2005 and early 2006, followed by drastic decline in 2007, which coincides with the end of the epidemic in Europe. Our results also suggest that domestic birds were the most likely source of the spread of the virus from Russia into Europe. Additionally, estimates of viral dispersal routes indicate that Russia, Romania, and Germany were key epicenters of these outbreaks. Our study quantifies the dynamics of a major European HPAIV pandemic and substantiates the ability of phylodynamic models to improve molecular surveillance of novel AIVs

Taste and the algorithm

Today, a consistent part of our everyday interaction with art and aesthetic artefacts occurs through digital media, and our preferences and choices are systematically tracked and analyzed by algorithms in ways that are far from transparent. Our consumption is constantly documented, and then, we are fed back through tailored information. We are therefore witnessing the emergence of a complex interrelation between our aesthetic choices, their digital elaboration, and also the production of content and the dynamics of creative processes. All are involved in a process of mutual influences, and are partially determined by the invisible guiding hand of algorithms. With regard to this topic, this paper will introduce some key issues concerning the role of algorithms in aesthetic domains, such as taste detection and formation, cultural consumption and production, and showing how aesthetics can contribute to the ongoing debate about the impact of today’s “algorithmic culture”

Data Mining in Electronic Commerce

Modern business is rushing toward e-commerce. If the transition is done properly, it enables better management, new services, lower transaction costs and better customer relations. Success depends on skilled information technologists, among whom are statisticians. This paper focuses on some of the contributions that statisticians are making to help change the business world, especially through the development and application of data mining methods. This is a very large area, and the topics we cover are chosen to avoid overlap with other papers in this special issue, as well as to respect the limitations of our expertise. Inevitably, electronic commerce has raised and is raising fresh research problems in a very wide range of statistical areas, and we try to emphasize those challenges.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000204 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Reinforcement learning for efficient network penetration testing

Penetration testing (also known as pentesting or PT) is a common practice for actively assessing the defenses of a computer network by planning and executing all possible attacks to discover and exploit existing vulnerabilities. Current penetration testing methods are increasingly becoming non-standard, composite and resource-consuming despite the use of evolving tools. In this paper, we propose and evaluate an AI-based pentesting system which makes use of machine learning techniques, namely reinforcement learning (RL) to learn and reproduce average and complex pentesting activities. The proposed system is named Intelligent Automated Penetration Testing System (IAPTS) consisting of a module that integrates with industrial PT frameworks to enable them to capture information, learn from experience, and reproduce tests in future similar testing cases. IAPTS aims to save human resources while producing much-enhanced results in terms of time consumption, reliability and frequency of testing. IAPTS takes the approach of modeling PT environments and tasks as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) problem which is solved by POMDP-solver. Although the scope of this paper is limited to network infrastructures PT planning and not the entire practice, the obtained results support the hypothesis that RL can enhance PT beyond the capabilities of any human PT expert in terms of time consumed, covered attacking vectors, accuracy and reliability of the outputs. In addition, this work tackles the complex problem of expertise capturing and re-use by allowing the IAPTS learning module to store and re-use PT policies in the same way that a human PT expert would learn but in a more efficient way

More is simpler : effectively and efficiently assessing node-pair similarities based on hyperlinks

Similarity assessment is one of the core tasks in hyperlink analysis. Recently, with the proliferation of applications, e.g., web search and collaborative filtering, SimRank has been a well-studied measure of similarity between two nodes in a graph. It recursively follows the philosophy that "two nodes are similar if they are referenced (have incoming edges) from similar nodes", which can be viewed as an aggregation of similarities based on incoming paths. Despite its popularity, SimRank has an undesirable property, i.e., "zero-similarity": It only accommodates paths with equal length from a common "center" node. Thus, a large portion of other paths are fully ignored. This paper attempts to remedy this issue. (1) We propose and rigorously justify SimRank*, a revised version of SimRank, which resolves such counter-intuitive "zero-similarity" issues while inheriting merits of the basic SimRank philosophy. (2) We show that the series form of SimRank* can be reduced to a fairly succinct and elegant closed form, which looks even simpler than SimRank, yet enriches semantics without suffering from increased computational cost. This leads to a fixed-point iterative paradigm of SimRank* in O(Knm) time on a graph of n nodes and m edges for K iterations, which is comparable to SimRank. (3) To further optimize SimRank* computation, we leverage a novel clustering strategy via edge concentration. Due to its NP-hardness, we devise an efficient and effective heuristic to speed up SimRank* computation to O(Knm) time, where m is generally much smaller than m. (4) Using real and synthetic data, we empirically verify the rich semantics of SimRank*, and demonstrate its high computation efficiency

Local Ranking Problem on the BrowseGraph

The "Local Ranking Problem" (LRP) is related to the computation of a centrality-like rank on a local graph, where the scores of the nodes could significantly differ from the ones computed on the global graph. Previous work has studied LRP on the hyperlink graph but never on the BrowseGraph, namely a graph where nodes are webpages and edges are browsing transitions. Recently, this graph has received more and more attention in many different tasks such as ranking, prediction and recommendation. However, a web-server has only the browsing traffic performed on its pages (local BrowseGraph) and, as a consequence, the local computation can lead to estimation errors, which hinders the increasing number of applications in the state of the art. Also, although the divergence between the local and global ranks has been measured, the possibility of estimating such divergence using only local knowledge has been mainly overlooked. These aspects are of great interest for online service providers who want to: (i) gauge their ability to correctly assess the importance of their resources only based on their local knowledge, and (ii) take into account real user browsing fluxes that better capture the actual user interest than the static hyperlink network. We study the LRP problem on a BrowseGraph from a large news provider, considering as subgraphs the aggregations of browsing traces of users coming from different domains. We show that the distance between rankings can be accurately predicted based only on structural information of the local graph, being able to achieve an average rank correlation as high as 0.8